Saturday Soccer Stats
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PREVIEW: Liverpool v Chelsea (Sat, 12:45)
You could argue Liverpool lost the title last season in their games against Chelsea, as the Blues did the double over the Reds having previously failed to beat them in six matches since another double in 2009/10.
Liverpool’s form has been poor this season, with the one exception of a 3-0 thumping against Spurs back in August. Daniel Sturridge’s absence has been keenly felt following the summer departure of Luis Suarez and no side in the top 11 has scored fewer goals. With just two clean sheets in their last 12 home games it is clear they are conceding too many and scoring too few to be serious challengers this term. Their record since 2012/13 when hosting teams that finished in the top four is W2-D2-L3 but both wins came last term when they were at the peak of their form and a repeat of the two draws between these sides in 2012/13 would be considered a good result here.
Chelsea’s only dropped points this season have all come in the North West, with 1-1 draws at both Manchester sides. In the past two seasons they’ve gone W6-D4-L2 away to teams that finished in the top seven including conceding just twice in their six such matches last term. All seven of those matches had fewer than three goals and going back to Jose Mourinho’s last spell in charge of the Blues the last 14 times he’s taken Chelsea to Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd or Man City in the league have all had fewer than three goals.
The relative form of the two teams suggests that Chelsea are a decent price to win but Liverpool showed some grit in midweek to only lose 1-0 in the Bernabeu and with Mourinho’s cautious attitude in these matches the draw is also worth considering. 11 of Chelsea’s 24 away matches since the start of last season have been goalless at half-time with 15 of the last 21 having more goals in the second half than the first. Seven of Liverpool’s 10 matches this season have also seen more goals after half-time than before and four of their last five games have been goalless at the break. The half-time 0-0 correct score therefore looks a juicy price at 3.0, while the highest scoring half to be the second is a decent 2.2 shot.
PREVIEW: PSG v Marseille (Sun, 20:00)
Marcelo Bielsa’s Marseille have transformed Ligue 1 from an expected one-horse race into a legitimate contest after winning nine of their last 10 matches. PSG are unbeaten, however, and lurking just four points behind.
PSG have won 18 of their last 23 home games with 17 wins by more than one goal, just one defeat, and only eight goals conceded. Moreover, they’ve won eight of their last 10 home games against top-six teams, all eight of which have been to nil. Marseille will also have to end a four-game losing streak in this fixture if they are to maintain or extend their advantage at the top of the table.
There have been rumours of dressing room disharmony within the Marseille camp in recent weeks, despite their run of form, and having hardly rotated their squad this season they will now be tested by the absence of three first choice players. Defensive midfielder Romao, left-back Jeremy Morel and winger Andre Ayew are all suspended. Ayew was missing for their first two games this season during which they picked up just one point and has been an ever-present since then. Since 2013/14 the three have all started in 26 of Marseille’s 50 games and with them they’ve conceded just 0.81 goals per game, including 0.87 gpg from 15 away matches. However, when one or more has been missing their goals conceded have increased to 1.21 overall and 1.30 on the road.
Furthermore, while Marseille’s recent run has been undoubtedly impressive, it has also come against largely mediocre opposition. They’ve faced just two sides currently higher than 10th in their last 10 games and one of those was their defeat at Lyon. In fact they’ve picked up just one point from their last six trips to top-six teams whilst also scoring only one goal.
Ibrahimovic looks set to miss out again having only just returned to training but PSG still look superb value against a Marseille side that are being overrated here on the basis of their league position. The champions can currently be backed at 1.70 and with Marseille being forced to play a weakened team that is a huge price, while the 2.88 for them to win by more than one goal is surely worth taking.
Goals backers should also consider taking Over 2.5 Goals as while PSG could cover that on their own they have also conceded in six of their last eight games. That coupled with Marseille having scored 27 times this season – three more than any other side – makes Over 2.5 Goals good value at 1.87.
Category: Football trading strategies
