Sunday Soccer Stats
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PREVIEW: Man Utd v Liverpool (Sun, 13:30)
Man Utd are up to third after a five-game winning streak while Liverpool’s season continues to fall apart after another poor European display in midweek. Despite United’s recent resurgence, however, they’ve been far from impressive as both Southampton and Arsenal outplayed them and without Angel Di Maria the midfield continues to lack creativity while their defence always looks likely to concede.
The good news for United is their home form has been good this season as their only dropped points in their last seven home games came in a draw against a very good Chelsea side. However, a contrary view would be that the longest they’ve been in any of those six wins was 1.67 against Everton. Of greater concern is the Red Devils recent record against top-half teams which has seen them win only two of 10 such home games since the start of last season while losing five times. Further back in the past two completed seasons United have won only eight of 18 home matches against teams that finished in the top half which equates to fair odds of 2.25, and even against teams that finished 5th-10th they’ve won six of 11 matches giving odds of 1.83 – which is the price they go off here.
Of those 18 home games exactly half have had at least three goals but only two have had more than three. Similarly only one of their eight home games this term have had more than three strikes, despite the strike-force at their disposal, and five of their six games home or away against the current top 10 have had 2-3 goals.
Liverpool are well below their level from last season but as United have shown a few good results can make a big difference in the current table where, apart from the top two, no side looks to be capable of consistently dominating matches. Goals have been a huge problem for the Reds without Suarez or Sturridge but in those times it is imperative to be strong at the back, and that is an area where they’ve shown some improvement recently, with just one goal conceded in their last three games. Interestingly, in Rickie Lambert’s five starts this season Liverpool have conceded just five times with a W3-D1-L1 record whereas Mario Balotelli’s last seven starts have seen the Reds go W1-D2-L4 whilst conceding 10 times. Given neither offer a huge threat in attack the greater work ethic of Lambert is clearly the greater benefit to the team right now.
Liverpool’s record away to top-six finishers in the past two seasons isn’t one to inspire hope in Scouse hearts as they’ve won only one of 11 matches whilst losing five times. However, that loss rate still means that United should only be 2.20 to win.
There are plenty of doubts about both teams here and with United’s winning streak flattering them after being outplayed and relying on De Gea heroics they appear overrated now. Liverpool won this fixture 3-0 last season and while we can’t see a repeat of that backing Liverpool +0.5 on the asian handicap at 2.1 looks a good play. Even if you think United will probably win, with both sides looking fairly workmanlike, you can still get Liverpool +0.75 at 1.88, so you get half your stake back even if United win by one goal – as has been the margin in all of United’s last seven wins against Liverpool.
Category: Football trading strategies
