Saturday Soccer Stats
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PREVIEW: Roma v AC Milan (Sat, 19:45)
Roma keep grinding out results to keep the pressure on Juventus at the top of Serie A, with a 1-0 success at in-form Genoa their latest success. Milan, also, come into this came on the up after a 2-0 win over Napoli, which has brought them to within three points of the top three.
Roma have been close to flawless at home since the start of last season, with their only defeat coming against Juventus, and they won their first seven games this season by at least two clear goals. However, the only side they’ve hosted this season that currently sits in the top half is Fiorentina and that was when they were missing Mario Gomez at the start of the campaign. In fact their record in their toughest games has not been great with one point from three trips to the current top six before their narrow win at Genoa last weekend.
Given Roma’s excellent record at home against the top half last season this wouldn’t necessarily put us off against a relatively poor Milan side. Of more concern for Roma is their list of absentees that has Astori, Pjanic, Holebas, Balzaretti and Castan all absent. This means a number of changes to their defence and the absence of their key midfield playmaker in Pjanic. Since 2012/13, Pjanic has missed 29 of 91 Roma games and they’ve scored 14% fewer goals per game and conceded 27% more when he’s been missing compared to with him. Furthermore, they’ve failed to score in just 11% of matches with him but 24% without.
Milan have lost only once on the road this season and the recent return from injury of captain Riccardo Montolivo is a major boost. Last season’s record of losing at five of the top six is one they will need to improve on but given Roma’s absences they have a great chance of getting something out of this game and can be backed on the double chance at 2.1.
We probably shouldn’t expect too many goals here. After their exciting early season games, seven of Milan’s last eight matches have had fewer than three goals. Furthermore, six of their last seven matches against teams currently in the top half have had no more than a brace of scores. While Roma have to make several changes in defence we should still expect them to be very tough to break down but without Pjanic they should find it harder to break Milan down. Therefore Under 2.5 Goals looks a great price at 2.0 and Under 1.5 Goals is worth a punt at 3.9.
PREVIEW: Newcastle v Sunderland (Sun, 13:30)
Newcastle’s good run came to an end at Arsenal last weekend but they still head into the Tyneside derby in good health and sitting seven places and seven points above their local rivals. Sunderland, meanwhile, have won only twice all season and they’ve scored just twice in their last five games to sit precariously close to the drop zone.
Newcastle have always been consistently good at home against bottom-half teams under Alan Pardew as they’ve won 64% of 39 such matches. That makes their 2.1 odds for this match look very generous. Toon fans, however, will be familiar with their rotten derby record in the past couple of season as they’ve lost three in a row and not won in five.
Man City won at St James’ Park on the opening day of the season but Newcastle have been unbeaten there since, and are currently on a four game winning streak at home. As ever, Newcastle are missing a number of players but they shouldn’t be unduly affected, with Cheik Tiote likely to be the only absentee from the side that finished the game against Chelsea last weekend. Given they’ve won nine of the 17 matches Tiote has missed since the start of last season they should be able to handle his absence here.
Since an 8-0 drubbing at Southampton Sunderland have shown a much stiffer resolve and have lost just two of eight matches – against Man City and Arsenal. Furthermore, they’ve conceded just one goal in their three away games since then, including a goalless draw at Anfield. However, their attacking threat remains minimal and they’ve failed to score in five of their last six away matches. Five goalless draws in their last 12 matches means the draw cannot be discounted and, in fact, three of the last seven derbies have finished all-square.
This fixture has shown in the past two seasons that anything can happen. However, that shouldn’t have an impact on this match and while we’d be happy backing Newcastle to win we’d be surprised if the Black Cats don’t keep this close. Nine of Newcastle’s 12 home wins since the start of last season have been by just one goal and they are worth backing to do this again at 3.75. Furthermore, Dutching the 1-0, 2-0, and 2-1 correct scores is an option, and works out as a 3.0 shot. For goals backers, the ‘unders’ looks the was to go with the two teams combining to score just 32 goals in 32 games this season, and 1.80 looks a decent price for Under 2.5 Goals.
Category: Football trading strategies
