Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments
PREVIEW: Everton v Man City (Sat, 15:00)
Everton’s injury-time equaliser against West Ham in Tuesday’s FA Cup game provided some much-needed respite following four straight league defeats. Things don’t seem to be getting any easier for Everton though, with Champions Manchester City probably close to the bottom of Roberto Martinez’s list of sides he’d like to play to end this run. City have eight wins and a draw in their last nine league games, despite not having Kompany and Aguero fit in recent weeks.
Everton’s recent struggles have largely been on the road, with only one loss in their last six at Goodison Park. Man City, on the other hand, have only lost one of their ten away games this season and have won their last four away. However, City will be without Yaya Toure who is with the Ivory Coast at the African Cup of Nations. Since 10/11, their PPG falls from 2.2 to 1.89 in the 28 games that Toure’s missed with average goals scored falling from 2.17 to 1.89 and average goals conceded rising from 0.84 to 1.11. Indeed, this season & last, when Toure has arguably been at his most influential for City, their PPG average falls from 2.35 to 1.71 in the seven games that he’s missed. Interestingly, six of the seven games that Toure has missed have had at least three goals (86%). The likelihood of goals is added to by the return of Aguero to the Man City squad. With Aguero in the side this season and last, City score on average 2.57 goals per game.
Furthermore, there have been more than 2.5 goals in 11 of Everton’s last 15 home games and in six of their last seven home games against top-six sides. Everton will be relieved to have Ross Barkley in their side and when he and Lukaku both start, their average goals scored is 1.88 compared to 1.39 when one or both are missing. All of these factors make over 2.5 goals in this match at 1.75 a very solid bet.
Everton have only won one of their last five home games against top-six sides (that win was against West Ham who are now down in 7th) means that their win price looks about right. However, particularly with City missing Toure, they are capable of replicating the performances that have seen them draw half their last eigth home games against top-six sides and can be backed to claim a point at a juicy 3.9.
The Rome derby has really lived up to it’s feisty reputation in recent years with the last six editions where Roma have been the home side all seeing at least one red card and three seeing two players given their marching orders. With both sides enjoying excellent seasons and sitting in the top three we can probably expect another fiercely contested match.
Roma might have finished higher than their neighbours in the past two seasons but they’ve won only one of their four league meetings and including the 2011/12 campaign they’ve had a W1-D2-L3 record against Lazio. However, their home record since the start of last season makes for more impressive reading as they’ve won 22 of 28 games whilst losing only once. Moreover, they’ve won 11 of 15 home games against top-half teams with their only defeat coming against Juventus.
Over-goals have been the slightly more common occurrence as 15 of 28 home games have had at least three goals, including eight of 15 against top-half teams. However, eight of their last 11 home matches against top-six sides have had fewer than three strikes as have the last three derbies. Furthermore, their last three matches in the league have seen just two goals in total and they will be without one of their key attackers as Gervinho is absent for the African Cup of Nations. The Ivorian has missed 15 games since the start of last season and 10 have had fewer than three goals as Roma have scored fewer than two goals on eight occasions.
Lazio are unbeaten in five matches and have lost just one of their last seven away games, although of course they will be playing at their home ground here. They’ve lost four of six trips to top-six finishers in each of the past two completed seasons but are certainly playing better this term. However, the match odds look fair in relation to their chances, particularly given their terrible recent disciplinary record in the derby. The draw looks to offer some value at 3.5 in what should be a close contest, but with Pjanic, De Rossi and Strootman all set to start Roma should be able to control the midfield.
Lazio have concede just one first-half goal in their last eight away games and half have finished with fewer than three goals, as did half their six trips to last season’s top six. With the recent low scoring nature of the derby and Roma missing Gervinho there is a definite shift towards ‘unders’ for this game which looks a decent price at 1.83.
For an extra interest in the match a sending off can be backed at 2.65.
It’s been a turbulent week for Barca, but Luis Enrique will be hoping that the comfortable Copa Del Rey win against Elche on Thursday night will ease the pressure on him following reports of a rift with Messi and uncertainty surrounding his position following the sacking of sporting director Andoni Zubizarreta. The real test, however, will come against Diego Simeone’s Atletico, who come into this fixture buoyant after a derby victory over Real Madrid in their Copa Del Rey meeting in midweek.
Whilst Barca have had a loss and a draw in their last two away games, their home form this season remains very impressive, with seven wins out of eight and 15 goals scored in their last three at home. Furthermore, six of their seven home wins this season have been by a margin of at least three goals, with the other by a margin of two goals. Barca have encountered the current top six three times this season, winning 5-1 at home to Sevilla and 1-0 away to Valencia, but losing 3-1 at home to Real Madrid. The victory at The Mestalla is all the more impressive considering Valencia have beaten Real Madrid and Atletico there in recent weeks. Going back to last season, Barca won four of their five games at the Nou Camp against the eventual top six, drawing the other to Atletico in a memorable last game of the season as a draw was enough for Atletico to win the title. In fact these two met six times last term in all competitions and Barca failed to win any, as five finished all-square.
This season and last, Atletico have won 18 of their 27 away games, with three draws and six losses. However, their away record against the top six sides is much more impressive. This season they’ve won two of their three encounters with current top-six teams including an early season victory at the Bernebeu, but they did lose away against Valencia in October. Looking back at last term, Atletico were unbeaten in their 10 matches against the eventual top six (W5-D5), with three of those victories away from home. This record on the road makes the 2.5 for the Double Chance about Atletico Madrid very appealing, despite Barca’s strong home record. There is also 1.88 available +1 on the Asian Handicap, which means you get your stake back even if Atletico lose by a goal.
Five of Barca’s six home games against the top-six this season and last have had over 2.5 goals, the exception being against Atletico. Indeed, last term only two of Atletico’s five away games against top-six sides had more than three goals, but things seem to be changing this season with both their away games against top-six sides Valencia and Real Madrid having at least three goals. With that in mind,Over 2.5 goals looks worth a bet at odds of 1.91.
Category: Football trading strategies
