Sunday Soccer Stats

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PREVIEW: Man City v Arsenal (Sun, 16:00)

This week’s Super Sunday clash sees Arsenal travel to reigning champions Man City. Both teams currently sit one place behind where they finished last term and neither will be happy if they end the campaign in their respective fifth and second spots.

Sergio Aguero’s name on the teamsheet will strike fear into the hearts of Arsenal fans and on paper him vs Per Mertesacker looks a mismatch. City have won 34 of 39 home matches that Aguero has started since he joined in 2011. At the other end of the pitch Alexis Sanchez is probably the most in-form striker in the league at the moment (Spurs fans might disagree) and Arsenal seem a much bigger threat than in previous campaigns when the Chilean is in the starting XI. Sanchez has 12 goals in 20 matches this season.

The Sky Blues have shown some excellent form over the last couple of months and are currently on a run of 14 games without a loss in all competitions as they’ve won 11 of the last 13. While Aguero’s return to the side will be a great boost for City they are without the services of Yaya Toure and new signing Wilfried Bony who are both away on international duty for the African Cup of Nations. Toure has missed five home matches since the start of last season and City are undefeated in the five games with three victories.

A pattern of Arsenal’s recent seasons has been their poor results in their toughest matches. Arsene Wenger’s side have lost 18 of their 30 games against fellow top-four finishers since 2009/10 including an incredible 13 of 15 on the road with 11 L/L doubles. The Gunners have also trailed at HT in their last five games against Man City.

The 1.83 available on a home win looks a huge price. City have already beaten Liverpool, Spurs and Man Utd at home this season while Arsenal have won just four of 11 on the road including defeats at Southampton, Stoke and Swansea. Goals are expected here and no bookie is offering bigger than 1.60 on Over 2.5 Goals. While this looks skinny it’s worth noting that Arsenal have netted in 12 of their last 13 Premier League fixtures and Man City have won 11 of their 16 home matches when conceding as featured at least three goals (with 11 Over 3.5 Goals games) under Manuel Pellegrini.

With the attacking talent on display here Man City to win with both teams scoring at anything bigger than 3.00 appeals but the standout selection is a home W/W double which is available at 2.80 generally.

Preview written by Will Wilde

PREVIEW: Sevilla v Malaga (Sun, 20:00)

This Andalusian derby features two teams chasing a European finish, with Sevilla having an eye on the Champions League and Malaga looking to qualify for the Europa League.

Sevilla look to be in the better form of the two, having won four of their last five matches and they’ve lost just four times at home since the start of last season. Two of those defeats were against Atletico and Barcelona and they’re currently unbeaten in their last 17 home matches. Significantly no side has managed to score more than once here in those 17 games and, home or away, they’ve kept clean sheets in each of their last four matches. They probably aren’t as exciting a team as last term, when Ivan Rakitic was pulling the strings, but they look well organised and six of their nine home games this term have had fewer than three goals.

Malaga have taken just one point from their last two games, both of which were at home, against Villarreal and Almeria respectively. Since the start of last season they’ve averaged just 1.09 goals per game overall, but less than one goal per game on the road as eight of their 11 away defeats have come to nil. Furthermore, six of their eight trips to top-half non-Big Two finishers last term had fewer than three goals.

The team news is that Malaga are missing Sergio Sanchez and Weligton from the heart of their defence and also holding midfielder Ignacio Camacho, who won his first cap for Spain in November. This looks significant with Malaga having lost 10 of the 17 games Camacho has missed since the start of last season compared to just 12 of 39 with him, as they’ve conceded an extra 47% more goals per game. Furthermore, 11 of those 17 games were actually at home.

Sevilla are also missing a couple of first choice players, with centre-back Nicolas Pareja and holding midfielder Stephane Mbia both out. However, they have greater depth and quality to replace with and the home side looks to have a clear advantage. Sevilla are 1.75 to win the game and that looks a price worth taking while the 3.0 on the Win to Nil also appeals. We would have looked towards Under 2.5 Goals at 1.95 in the goals market but Camacho’s absence puts us off that somewhat as there’s been a notable increase in ’overs’ in Malaga’s matches without him. If you fancy a long shot Sevilla are 6.5 to cover the -2.5 Asian Handicap, as they’ve done eight times at home since the start of last season.

Preview written by Alex Coldicott

PREVIEW: Lazio v Napoli (Sun, 11:30)

Lazio have seen a remarkable upturn in their form since the end of November that has led them to third in the Serie A table and on Sunday they’ll hope to pull away from fourth-placed Napoli and closer to Roma and Juve. Lazio come into this fixture on the back of a draw in the Rome derby last weekend and a midweek away win in the Coppa Italia against Torino. Napoli, meanwhile, suffered a heavy home defeat at the hands of league leaders Juventus last weekend.

Lazio are undefeated in their last six games and have won five of their last six at home, with only a defeat against Juve spoiling a perfect recent home record. Napoli, conversely, have only won two of their last six away games, with three draws and a loss. Lazio also have a decent record in their last eight home games against top-six opposition: W3-D3-L2, whilst Napoli have struggled in their last seven away games against top-six sides: W2-D2-L3.

Both sides have significant selection issues coming into this game, with Napoli still without Insigne and also losing left-back Ghoulam to the African Cup of Nations. In the 12 games that Ghoulam has missed this season and last, Napoli’s PPG falls to 1.58, from 1.96 with him in the side, and their average goals conceded goes up from 0.96 to 1.50.

For Lazio, their keeper Federico Marchetti is suspended, meaning that Berisha is likely to play in goal. In the 21 games that Berisha has placed since the start of last season, Lazio’s average goals conceded is 1.48, compared to 1.26 when Marchetti has played. Lazio have several squad players unavailable, but they are also without regular left-midfielder Senad Lulic. In the 15 games that Lulic has missed this season and last, Lazio PPG goes down to 0.93 as they’ve drawn eight times, compared to 1.78 when he’s played. Their average goals scored also falls from 1.76 with Lulic to just 1.00 per game without him. Their side has been further weakened by the news that Felipe Anderson, who has been so impressive in their last five games, will miss the next three weeks. Prior to those matches Lazio scored just once in three games – all of which Anderson missed.

Whilst Lazio’s recent home record is undoubtedly impressive, these absentees put us off backing them at 2.62 and instead the draw looks appealing at 3.3. Lazio have scored first in 11 of their last 13 home matches, while Napoli have conceded first in nine of their last 12 away matches against top-six teams, making Lazio to score first at 2.0 looks worth a punt while Lazio/Draw on the Half-Time/Full-Time market is a juicy 17.0.

Preview written by Charan Gill

Eredivisie Winter Goals:

When you think of the Eredivisie most people think  go and score 20 a season. Afonso Alves and Jozy Altidore kind of prove that point, although since Alves netted 34 times in 2006/07 three of the four men to score 30-plus times in a season are Luis Suarez, Wilfried Bony and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. The point of course is that goals tend to be a freely available commodity here and so most of the attention tends to be looking for ‘over-goals’ matches. However, that isn’t consistently the case all season long and there are times when we can profit from that.

Since 2009/10 there have been 954 Eredivisie matches from the start of the season to the end of the year and the Winter break. These matches have averaged 3.20 goals per game with 61% having at least three goals and 42% having four or more.

However, in January-February there have been 297 matches which have combined to average just 2.94 gpg, with 55% having +2.5 and 31% +3.5 goals.

The remainder of these seasons has seen 432 games, with goals increasing back to 3.21 per game and +2.5 goals occurring 61% of the time and +3.5 goals in 40% of matches.

Of course the key is whether the market takes this post-Winter break goals slump into consideration, and fortunately for us they don’t. Using average odds those 297 games would have resulted in a 3.0% profit for backing Under 2.5 Goals and a 3.2% profit for Under 3.5 (best prices may result in a 3-5% increase in these returns). The reasons for this decline can be put down to several factors such as teams having had a chance to work on their defences over the Winter break, new signings settling in after the transfer window leading to a less cohesive approach, or just that the colder, wetter, windier weather makes attacking football harder to play.

January-February Goals Returns in the Eredivisie 09/10-13/14

March-May Goals Returns in the Eredivisie 09/10-13/14

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Category: Football trading strategies