Saturday Soccer Stats
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PREVIEW: Chelsea v Man City (Sat, 17:30)
This week’s Saturday Night Football sees reigning champions Man City travel to league leaders Chelsea. Following their shock 4-2 defeat at home to Bradford in the FA Cup, Chelsea needed extra-time to see off Liverpool in the League Cup in midweek, but the talking-point from that game has been Diego Costa’s alleged stamps on Can and Skrtel which have led to a three-match ban, meaning he misses this crucial game. City suffered an FA Cup shock of their own as they followed their league defeat at home to Arsenal with another home loss against Middlesbrough. A defeat for City here will surely leave them with too much ground to catch up on Chelsea in the remainder of the season and all of a sudden Manuel Pellegrini could be reliant on a strong Champions League showing to save his job.
Chelsea’s home record in the league this season is impeccable as they’ve won all 10, winning nine of these by a margin of at least two goals, and they’ve also kept a clean sheet in seven of their last eight home games. Furthermore, since the start of last season, Chelsea have won all seven of their home games against top-six sides, keeping a clean sheet in the last five of those wins.
City, on the other hand, have only won one of their last four games but surprisingly their recent troubles have largely been at home, and they have in fact won four of their last five away games, drawing the most recent at Everton. Since the start of last season, City have won three of their seven away matches against top-six sides, drawing two and losing against Chelsea and Liverpool last season. City will be boosted by the fact that Aguero should be sharper now than he was in their last league match against Arsenal when he was returning from injury, but they are still without Yaya Toure, who is at the African Cup of Nations. City have won only four of their last 14 games without Toure and all those wins were at home; against West Brom twice, Crystal Palace, and Spurs. Furthermore, they’ve won none of their last six away matches without the Ivorian. They’ll also be without Samir Nasri again, and in the 17 games he’s missed since the start of last season City score an average of 0.46 fewer goals per game and average 0.39 fewer points per game.
Chelsea have their own injury problems, with Cesc Fabregas a doubt after picking up an injury against Liverpool and his potential absence along with that of Costa puts us off backing them to win at 2.15, particularly since Mourinho played a full-strength side against Liverpool in midweek that had to go to extra-time in an extremely fast-paced game. Instead, the draw looks appealing at odds of 3.6. Furthermore, Costa’s absence together with the fact that Chelsea have only conceded one goal in their last eight home games means that Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 is worth a bet.
PREVIEW: Monaco v Lyon (Sun, 20:00)
The two form sides in Ligue 1 meet on Sunday as leaders Lyon travel to Monaco. This fixture, along with Lyon’s home game against PSG next weekend will surely be crucial in determining the outcome of the Ligue 1 title race and whether Lyon can defy the bookmakers, who still have PSG as favourites for the title at 1.45 despite the fact that they are four points behind Lyon. Monaco, meanwhile, will aim to continue narrowing the gap to Marseille and Saint-Etienne as they push for Champions League qualification.
Lyon have won their last seven matches and have not conceded in their last five, but their victory against Metz last weekend came at a cost as Alexandre Lacazette limped off injured and will miss their next three fixtures. Lacazette has been the stand-out player in Ligue 1 this season, starting every game for Lyon and scoring 21 goals already. Lyon are already without forwards N’Jie and Yattara, both of whom are at the African Cup of Nations, and so will most likely have to rely on Fekir or Benzia to lead the line. Whilst Lyon’s home record is outstanding, having won 11 of their 12 matches this season, they’ve struggled comparatively in away games as they’ve picked up only four wins in their 10 matches. Lyon have won their last three away matches, but two of those wins came against relegation candidates Lens and Evian and the other was against a Bordeaux side struggling for form with no wins in their last five games. Furthermore, Lyon have only won one of their last seven away matches against top-six sides, losing four of these games.
Monaco have won six of their last seven matches and much like Lyon, their defence has been extremely difficult to break down as they haven’t conceded in any of these matches and they will also hope to welcome back key defenders Carvalho and Kurzawa this week, both of whom should add even more solidity to their defence. Although they’re unbeaten in their last seven at home, Monaco’s away record is in fact stronger this season as they average 1.82 points per game in away matches, compared to 1.73 at home. Monaco have only lost one of their last five home games against top-six teams since the start of last season, winning two of these games. However, those wins came against a Marseille side that has lost five of their last six away games and against Montpellier who finished sixth last season, making 2.2 for them to win this game look a little skinny and perhaps an overreaction from the market to Lacazette’s injury.
Indeed, the absence of Lacazette coupled with both sides’ mean defences makes it extremely hard to envisage this one being a goal-fest. Monaco’s last five games have all had fewer than 2 goals and odds of 3.00 for this game to also have Under 1.5 goals are appealing. Since we’re expecting a defensive masterclass from these two sides, a price of 9.00 on the 0-0 correct score looks to be worth a punt as well.
PREVIEW: Crystal Palace v Everton (Sat, 15:00)
Newcastle fans have watched on in despair in recent weeks as Alan Pardew, the man who was seemingly always under pressure at Newcastle and the subject of various banners and protests at St. James’ Park, has won his first four games in charge of Palace in all competitions, including a stunning comeback last match in the FA Cup from 2-0 down to beat Southampton 3-2 at St. Mary’s. Everton, meanwhile, find themselves down in 12th place and only ahead of Palace on goal difference.
Palace are unbeaten in their last four games and have won their last two, including a home win over Spurs, who came into that game on the back of their 5-3 win over Chelsea. Palace are still without Jedinak and Bolasie, both of whom are away on international duty, and we pointed out before they left that Palace might struggle in their absence as they had only won one of the last 22 games that Jedinak had missed since 11/12 and just five of the 23 games that Bolasie has missed since 12/13. However, Pardew seems to have got the best out of the players he’s had available and Palace have also now been boosted by the signings of Yaya Sanogo, Jordan Mutch, and Shola Ameobi.
Everton, on the other hand, have won only one of their last 10 games, scoring only three goals in their last six, and they’ve also lost their last five away matches. They will again be without their first-choice keeper Tim Howard, who has missed seven games since the start of last season and Everton’s record without him is just W1-D2-L4 whilst keeping only one clean sheet. Furthermore, whilst McCarthy is fit again, he is unlikely to start and Everton have only won one of the 10 games he’s missed this season and have scored 0.85 fewer goals per game without him.
Given Palace’s resurgence under Pardew and Everton’s terrible recent away record, it seems surprising that Palace can be backed DNB at odds against, with 2.05 available, and this looks a solid bet. Furthermore, there have been more than two goals in Palace’s four games since Pardew took over in all competitions, making odds of 2.3 on there being Over 2.5 goals look like value. If we go back to Pardew’s last games at Newcastle, there have been more than two goals in six of the last seven games he’s managed in the Premier League. Indeed, Pardew is certainly something of an ‘Overs’ manager as 58.0% of the games he’s managed since 2010/11 have had Over 2.5 goals, compared to a Premier League average of 53.4% in the same period.
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