Luck of the draw
The FA Cup fifth round is upon us and unlike previous years the competition has been very interesting so far.
A raft of premiership clubs have already been dumped out of the competition and that’s changed the shape a bit. In the fifth round this year the premier league clubs account for 96% of the market. This is lower than previous years which have been 98.76%, 98.36% and 99.30%.
So for the first time in a few years that percentage has dropped between rounds, but what’s the implication from the fifth round then?
Well, If you look at the all premiership matches this means that money will be redistributed between the market on Saturday. 24.7% of the book could drop out on Saturday if the ‘right’ teams lose. Derby vs Reading would appear to be a good shot at getting some of that percentage shovelled on a lower team. But this will be very much dependant on who they draw in the next round. A bit of luck there will see that percentage shoot up.
One of the ‘benefits’ of the staggered times on the FA Cup now is that after today we get to see the teams who are through repriced dynamically. After the 15:00 kick offs today we have a 17:00 then tomorrow a 12:30, 14:30 & 16:00 match. In golf, a club house lead is worth more than a good score out on course and that’s what you will see over the next two days. Teams that have qualified have a chance of shortening if another team struggles to close our their match. There is off course the possibility of a non premiership tie in the next round which would shorten the odds of those teams.
Arsenal have been the big gainers so far shortening from 10.5 to 3.65 so far. But they face the inform Middlesbrough on Sunday. Long suffering Arsenal fans will hope that Middlesbrough don’t carry their form to the Emirates.
Should be an interesting couple of days on the FA Cup winner market.
Category: Football trading strategies, Trading strategies
