Saturday Soccer Stats
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PREVIEW: Sampdoria v Genoa (Sat, 19:45)
It’s another weekend with few high profile clashes across Europe but one game that is sure to be full of passion is the Derby della Lanterna in Genoa. Things have calmed down a bit recently between these sides, with just two red cards in the last seven derbies (although average booking points are still 73 in this time) after the previous five saw eight reds and an average of 146 booking points.
Those recent meetings have largely seen both sides in the bottom half and prior to this season the last few times both were in the top half was back in that explosive run of fixtures when it was the case three times. European football is a very real possibility for both teams this time however, although it is Genoa who come into this game with all the momentum.
Genoa have won their last two matches to leapfrog their rivals and they’ve won five of their 11 away matches this season as they’ve scored in 10 consecutive road games. Furthermore, their record away to teams placed 4th-10th since the start of last season is a respectable W3-D4-L2. They are missing a couple of players coming into this weekend with Marchese and Costa likely to be ruled out through injury but up-front Mbyae Niang has made an excellent start since moving from Milan in January.
Sampdoria have picked up just two points from their last four games despite all being winnable matches. Furthermore, they’ve scored just seven times in their last seven games and two of those were at struggling Parma, as the sale of Manolo Gabbiadini has significantly weakened their attack. They will at least be able to welcome Okaka back up-front as they look to preserve their unbeaten home record, although six draws in their last eight home games have led to a lot of dropped points. Moreover, they won none of their seven home games last season against teams that finished 3rd-9th (W0-D4-L3) and have drawn two of three games against teams currently occupying those spots this term. Six of the 10 combined matches had fewer than three goals and four finished 1-1.
17 of Sampdoria’s 30 home games since the start of last season have had fewer than three goals and the last two derbies have both finished 1-0 to Sampdoria. Going back further to the 2007/08 season, there have been 13 derbies and seven have had fewer than two goals. So while Genoa’s recent stats suggest more ‘overs’ we’d expect a tight affair here and Under 2.5 Goals at 1.73 looks a reasonable price. Both teams have strong draw stats against teams in similar positions so at 3.3 that looks a great play in the match outcome markets and it might be worth a small punt on the 1-1 correct score at 7.0.
Player Analysis:
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we’ve looked around to find some important players that are going to be missing this weekend. For more player analysis from our analysts or to do your own player analysis sign up at www.footballformlabs.com.
N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
Freiburg v Hoffenheim
Admir Mehmedi, Forward, Freiburg
Freiburg have won just one of the 12 matches Mehmedi has missed since the start of last season and that was against struggling Hertha Berlin in their last game. Although he has returned to full training he’s likely to only be fit enough for the bench and Hoffenheim have a great chance to close the gap on the European spots. The away win is 2.35 while the win to nil is a juicy 5.0.
Everton v Leicester
Gareth Barry, Midfielder, Everton
Barry has missed just seven games since joining Everton at the start of last season and they are yet to keep a clean sheet without him. While they’ve lost three of the matches without him two were against Man City and otherwise they’ve W3-D1-L1. Furthermore, they’ve scored in all seven games, including two or more five times as six of the games have had at least three goals. Everton to win with both teams scoring is available at 4.25.
Melbourne City v Perth Glory
Damien Duff, Midfielder, Melbourne City
Duff has miss just four games this season and while City are unbeaten without him they’ve scored just three goals in those games as all four have had fewer than three goals. With Mate Dugandzic also missing they look weak in attack as they host the leaders and Under 2.5 Goals is a good price at 1.91.
PREVIEW: Southampton 2015 vs Southampton 2014 (Saints vs Liverpool)
[Peter’s EDIT : In this match you shouldn’t underestimate the incentive for the 2015 team to want to beat the 2014, but Saints are short on confidence in front of goal at the moment]
Southampton have stumbled in recent weeks in their pursuit of Champions League qualification, suffering a surprise 1-0 home defeat to Swansea and failing to beat a West Ham side that was down to 10 men for half an hour at home in their last match. Liverpool, meanwhile, now look a completely different side to the one at the start of the season, beating an in-form Spurs side at home in a high octane game and also recording victories at Crystal Palace in the FA Cup and at home against Besiktas in the Europa League since then.
Although Southampton lost successive home games to the Manchester clubs that put something of a halt to their impressive start to the season, they’ve since had home wins against Arsenal and Everton with a draw against Chelsea sandwiched in between. The defeat to Swansea seems something of an anomaly in a match that Southampton dominated, as was the case in their goalless draw against West Ham, and they will be grateful that unlike in that game, they will be able to call upon the services of Schneiderlin and Long for the visit of Liverpool, as well as having Mane and Wanyama back in the side in recent weeks. They’ve struggled for goals somewhat in their last three games, scoring just one, but in the nine games that Shane Long has played this term they average 2.44 goals per game.
Though Liverpool are in good form at the moment, they’ve only won two of their six league games following midweek European matches and those wins came in home games against West Brom and Stoke. Amongst the defeats were a 3-1 away loss to West Ham, a 2-1 home loss to Chelsea, a 3-0 away defeat to Manchester United, and they also drew 0-0 at home to Hull. Furthermore, Liverpool have lost five of their 12 away games this season, drawing one, and five of their six away wins this have come against bottom-six sides, with the other coming against Spurs early in the season when Pochettino’s side were yet to hit their stride.
With these key players returning to fitness now for Southampton we expect them to go back to the impressive home form they showed earlier in the season and given Liverpool played a full strength side in a tough Europa League game on Thursday, Southampton at 1.85 Draw No Bet looks a very solid bet. As well as being without Steven Gerrard for this game, Liverpool have also lost Lucas Leiva to injury and he’s proven to be an important player for them this season. Their record in the 12 games he’s played is W8-D3-L1, but in the 13 games he’s missed their record is W4-D3-L6, with four of those defeats in away matches. Furthermore, since Southampton’s last four home games have had fewer than three goals, as have Liverpool’s last four away, Under 2.5 goals at 1.8 is also appealing.
Fiery Italians and Dirty Derbies in Serie A
In the past 10 seasons in Serie A there have been an average of 4.55 yellow cards per game and 0.30 sending offs, accumulating 53.1 booking points. Out of the Big 5 leagues, Serie A comes second for the worst disciplinary record only to La Liga, where there is an average of 61.7 booking points per game. So if regular Serie A matches are this fiery, how dirty must their derbies be?
Well it turns out very. In Serie A’s three biggest derby matches (Milan derby, Genoa v Sampdoria, and Lazio v Roma there have been, on average, 85.4 booking points per derby (52 derbies in last 10 seasons). That is the equivalent of more than three extra yellows, every derby match. The average Premier League derby game over the past eight seasons saw 43.5 booking points – less than one extra caution more than the average Premier League game. English derbies seem a bit timid in comparison.
The Turin derby between Juventus and Torino is similarly a more tame affair than the biggest three Italian derbies, with an average of 60.6 booking points in the last eight games and the same can be said of the Verona derby in which Verona play Chievo, where there is an average of 64 booking points the last five times these two have met.
Probably the most famous Italian derby is the ‘Derby della Madonnina’ (AC vs Inter), played at the iconic San Siro. On average, this game produces 73.5 booking points, as well as a red card every other match. This, however, is the ‘tamest’ of the biggest three derbies, despite having nearly 17 more booking points than the Premier League’s dirtiest derby, the Merseyside derby.
Without doubt, the most ill-tempered and fiery Italian derby in recent years is Genoa v Sampdoria. A recent encounter in the 2009/10 season, reached a staggering 200 booking points, involving four red cards, and ten bookings. This isn’t an anomaly either. The season before, the derby produced 175 booking points. In the last seven meetings where Genoa have been the nominal home team (they share the ground), five of the games have generated over 100 booking points and involved at least eight bookings and one red card, with an average of 121 booking points from the seven derbies.
The other major derby is in the Capital, between Roma and Lazio. This, like the Genoa v Sampdoria derby, produces a tremendous amount of ill-discipline. In the past 10 seasons, none of the 20 Rome derbies have had fewer than 50 booking points. Moreover, in the last six seasons, the 12 derbies have averaged 104 booking points, with seven totals of 100 or more. 10 of these 12 games have seen a red card, and five have seen more than one player take an early shower.
We’ve already previewed Saturday’s Genoa derby and it could pay to be buying bookings here. Not only is it historically a fiery clash but the referee in charge, Ginaluca Rocchi, has sent someone off in seven of the last eight matches he’s taken charge of (eight reds in total). A sending off can be backed at 2.8 with Unibet.
Category: Football trading strategies
