Has Manuel Pellegrini got Manchester City’s Tactics Right?

To begin with, we simply looked at City’s record this season and last when they played with two strikers at home and away and similarly when they went with just one up top at the Etihad and on the road.
 

This data suggests that City’s results are better when they play with one striker at home and with two strikers away. However, these figures don’t tell the whole story as they don’t show who the opposition were in these games. One would expect Pellegrini to have deployed only one striker in the ‘big matches’ that are the subject of Gary Neville’s article.

If we include under the umbrella of ‘big games’ matches against this season’s current top-six (Chelsea, Arsenal, Man United, Liverpool, and Spurs) as well as their Champions League ties against Barcelona, Roma, and Bayern Munich, then City’s stats at home and away with one striker or two are shown below with the ‘big games’ excluded.
 

These results are very interesting and show that City are better off playing with one striker both home and away, even in games that aren’t against the top sides (although the sample size for away games with one striker is admittedly fairly small). Nonetheless, City are yet to lose a game at home or away in ‘non-big games’. It is, however, a tactic that they tend not to favour as they’ve played with two strikers in 51 games since 13/14, compared to one striker in just 17 matches.

We now turn our attention to the big games and City’s home results in such matches are listed below according to whether they played one striker or two in these games.
 

The record is very similar in terms of PPG, but what’s noticeable is that the three defeats City endured when playing with two strikers were against Barcelona, Chelsea, and Bayern Munich, undoubtedly three of the best teams that Europe has to offer. In fact their home record suggests that they are successful regardless of whether they are playing one or two strikers but, against the very best sides, they are yet to find the answer.

Since City only started with two strikers in two ‘big’ away games over this period, there’s little point in comparing their away results with one or two up front. Instead we decided to look at some of City’s attacking combinations in these ‘big games’. There are three main combinations that City tend to go with in these games, whether forced through injuries to some of these attacking players, or otherwise. Of these 28 big games, City started seven with Toure, Silva, Nasri and a lone striker, eight with Toure, Silva/Nasri, and two strikers, and seven without Toure, one of Silva and Nasri, and one striker. The results with each combination are laid out below.
 

 
What’s particularly striking is City’s poor performance when they’ve started with all their attacking options in midfield (ignoring number of strikers): Toure, Silva and Nasri, as they’ve lost half of these 10 games (W4-D1-L5). However, all five of those defeats were on the road.

Conversely, they’ve lost just two of eight matches when they’ve adopted a more conservative approach with just one striker and only one of Silva and Nasri. Those defeats came against Barcelona last season and then recently, in January, against Arsenal, when Aguero had just returned from injury and City weren’t in particularly good form. Furthermore, both of City’s wins over Bayern Munich came when they adopted this approach and, despite it’s more conservative look, it still saw them score six goals over these two games.

A closer look at City’s team selections in these big away games further highlights the folly of picking both Nasri and Silva.
 

 
Pellegrini’s team selection ahead of their second leg with Barcelona will be fascinating as they try to claw back a 2-0 deficit from the first leg. It would be bold of him to leave one of Silva or Nasri, Toure, and Dzeko on the bench, but history suggests that City’s best option – much as Neville suggests – is to play just one striker and to stiffen up the midfield.

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