Sunday Soccer Stats
United’s home win against Spurs last weekend was probably their best performance of the season and had the Old Trafford faithful believing that the good times might be soon to return at United. It was undoubtedly an impressive performance against Pochettino’s Spurs side, which looked more akin to the AVB team of last season, but this was a win at home and United have certainly not been short of these this season; ahead of the Spurs game they’d won eight of their last nine at Old Trafford. Indeed at home this season United average an impressive 2.47 points per game, but the story on the road has been somewhat different, as they’ve picked up an average of just 1.36 in their 14 away games, winning just two of their last seven road matches.
Though they recorded victories at Southampton and Arsenal earlier in the season, not even the most ardent United fan would argue that they deserved all three points at St Mary’s that day and the Arsenal side they beat looks a shadow of the current team. With Di Maria returning from suspension, Van Gaal will have to decide whether his record signing goes straight into the side, most likely at the expense of Mata. United have lost four of the 19 games Di Maria has started since his arrival, but are unbeaten in the eight games he’s missed (W5-D3-L0) and have conceded just five goals in these matches.
Together with Arsenal, Liverpool are undoubtedly one of the form sides in the Premier League at the moment, going unbeaten in their last 13 games and winning 10 of those. At home, they’ve won five of their last six and amongst those were wins against a Spurs side that came into the game buoyant after their North London Derby victory, and against second-placed City. Whereas Liverpool’s poor defence cost them early on in the season when they didn’t have a Sturridge or Suarez to paper over their frailty at the back and outscore the opposition, Liverpool have now conceded just three goals in their last nine games, keeping seven clean sheets in the process.
Put this newfound defensive stability together with their electric forwards, particularly at Anfield, andLiverpool look good value to win at odds against, with 2.15 available. Rodgers has virtually a fully fit squad to choose from and it’s likely that Sturridge, Coutinho, and Sterling will start for Liverpool, which should lead to a compelling match: in the eight games that this trio has started at Anfield since the start of last season, Liverpool have scored an average of 3.25 goals per game, despite the fact that five of these games were against top-six sides. Indeed there was an average of 4.38 goals in these games and this coupled with the fact that Liverpool’s five home games against top-seven sides this season all had at least three goals, as did United’s trips to Southampton and Arsenal, then Over 2.5 goals at evens looks a solid play.
PREVIEW: Barcelona v Real Madrid (Sun, 20:00)
Undoubtedly the highest quality football match in the world, this Clasico has even more significance given the current shape of the La Liga table. With nine games remaining Barcelona have a narrow one point lead over Real and the rest out of contention. Now that both sides have made it through to the quarter-finals of the Champions League, with Barca progressing with much more distinction than their title rivals, attentions will be firmly fixed on this enormous fixture.
Following reports earlier in the season of dressing room rifts, which seem to be particularly prevalent from the Spanish press when it comes to La Liga’s ‘Big Two’, Barcelona’s recent form has been strong as they’ve won nine of their last 10 matches. Barca have won 11 of their 13 home games this season, losing the other two in shock 1-0 defeats against Malaga and Enrique’s former club Celta Vigo. In their 11 wins at the Camp Nou, Barca have scored a remarkable average of 4.18 goals per game and pertinently for the purposes of this preview have conceded in their last five home games against sides currently in the top-half of the table.
Coming into this Clasico, it’s the harmony within the Real dressing room that is the subject of media speculation, with Bale and Ronaldo reportedly not seeing eye to eye and the president calling a press conference to assure Ancelotti that his job is safe. All of this is a result of the fact that Real Madrid have won just one of their last four in all competitions and just three of their last six in the league. For most other clubs this might be regarded as a blip, but for the Bernebau crowd that demands rather than hopes for success, it’s an absolute disaster. Real have also lost three of their last six away and amongst these was a humiliating 4-0 defeat at the Vicente Calderon, with Ancelotti seemingly unable to crack Diego Simeone’s well-organised side, winning only two of his 11 Madrid derbies in all competitions.
With Barca and Real clashing so often in recent times, usually in the latter stages of the Copa Del Rey and in the Spanish Super Cup in addition of the league, there is a large sample size of recent head-to-head matches for us to analyse. What stands out the most is the fact that both teams have scored in their last 17 meetings. It is thus unsurprising that both Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to score are very short prices at 1.44 and 1.46 respectively. The fact that Barca have conceded in their last five at home against top-half sides strengthens this stat further and it is also important to note that Barca haven’t drawn any of their 13 home games and Real haven’t drawn away this season, while only two of the last 15 Clasicos in all competitions were draws .
With Messi in scintillating form at the moment and Suarez starting to gel with both him and Neymar, while the opposite can be said about Real Madrid’s superstar forwards, we like Barcelona to win and both teams to score at odds of 2.9 here. In fact in his current form – he’s scored 16 times in his last eight home La Liga games – the 1.80 on Messi to score looks a great price.
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Category: Football trading strategies
