Going to the wire
It’s a fascinating season in the Championship this year and it’s going to wire!
The championship is always ultra competitive, unlike the premier league most years, and this often throws up some interesting scenarios. The prize on offer, promotion to the premiership is such a large one, that clubs will spend or ‘fight like beavers’, to get a chance of the riches on offer.
This year we are only three games away from deciding which two lucky teams will get to the premier league, but things are far from decided at the moment.
Only two points separate fourth place from top place, so any two from four can still be promoted at this stage. But tonight that should shift around a bit when Norwich play Middlesbrough. A win for Norwich would see them two points above Bournemouth who play at home on Saturday. Watford are also at home on Saturday, leaving Middlesbrough the most likely losers over the two days in the title race.
But anything can happen, everybody is winning at all costs it seems at the moment; so the result on Friday will most likely radically shape the eventual outcome of the winner market. But more critically the incentive to win and score on Saturday will be shaped by tonights match. It’s odd that the matches have fallen this way and the demands of TV will no doubt end up shaping the outcome of the title due to the staggered starts.
It’s a fairly unique scenario from a trading perspective as the result on one will affect the markets the following day, but also the underlying winner market for the league. So by trading or participating on Friday you can profit on one market or another.
Norwich at at home and priced at 2.04 at the moment, Middlesbrough are 4.3 for the away win this evening.
Let’s look at some scenarios. If Norwich win their price on promotion will shorten from 1.50 so backing Norwich for the win and laying the promotion market should see you profit as the others results are currently priced in. That will give you a chance to exit before the Saturday kick offs. But if Norwich lose then will the profit on promotion be enough? Only if the other teams win on Saturday.
If you lay Middlesbrough for promotion at 2.44 there is a fair chance that will pay off. You are taking 1.44 times your stake in liability when you lay at this price but that’s easy to cover with a back on an unexpected win at 4.30 on the match. Of course the match could end in a draw, that wouldn’t be helpful to either. In which case you would be looking at a lay on Middlesbrough for promotion and Norwich for the match. There are many combinations.
The bottom teams have a role to play as well. Fulham play Norwich away and Middlesbrough at home. They are currently seven points away from relegation with three games left. So Millwall’s game in hand is a critical factor as to what Fulham need to do to get avoid relegation. Rotherman are at home to Norwich and five points away from Millwall. Wigan need 9 points three games, unlikely, to leave them on 45, one point ahead of Rotherman’s total so they still have some work to do.
But when you look at the run in you have to favour Bournemouth and Watford who have easier matches with no dependencies. So whatever strategy you choose it has to favour those two.
It’s going to be an interesting finish to the season!
Category: Football trading strategies
