Early season expectations
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[Peter – I’ve also looked into the start of the season for opportunities to lay or back teams with difficult or easy starts. Bournemouth and Norwich have a fair start but descend into some really tough fixtures as the season warms up. You can use this information and the sort of stuff produced here to get some value before a team reverts to mean, which they nearly always do! Keep an eye on signings as well.]
| Position | Team | Pts |
| 1 | Chelsea | 23 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 22 |
| 3 | Man Utd | 22 |
| 4 | Swansea | 18 |
| 5 | Man City | 16 |
| 6 | West Ham | 16 |
| 7 | Stoke | 16 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 14 |
| 10 | Southampton | 13 |
| 11 | Everton | 12 |
| 12 | Sunderland | 12 |
| 13 | Tottenham | 11 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 11 |
| 15 | Leicester | 11 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 11 |
| 17 | Newcastle | 8 |
| Team | Price to Win PL 15/16 | Expected 10 Game Pts |
| Chelsea | 2.5 | 23 |
| Man City | 3.75 | 16 |
| Arsenal | 6 | 22 |
| Man Utd | 6.5 | 22 |
| Liverpool | 34 | 14 |
| Tottenham | 126 | 11 |
| Team | W/O Big 6 15/16 | Expected 10 Game Pts |
| Southampton | 3 | 13 |
| Everton | 3.75 | 12 |
| Swansea | 11 | 18 |
| West Ham | 11 | 16 |
| Stoke | 13 | 16 |
| Newcastle | 21 | 8 |
| Crystal Palace | 21 | 11 |
| Team | Relegation 15/16 | Expected 10 Game Pts |
| Sunderland | 3.5 | 12 |
| Leicester | 5.5 | 11 |
| Aston Villa | 6 | 11 |
| West Brom | 6 | 14 |
Man City will have to significantly improve upon their results in the corresponding fixtures last season if they are to live up to their billing of second favourites for the title and it certainly looks a good idea to wait a couple of months before thinking about backing them as if, after 10 games, they are a couple of points off the lead their price may not have changed much but they should be a much better proposition than they are now.
Arsenal and Man Utd arguably look better value alternatives to Chelsea at this stage while it could pay to oppose Spurs and Liverpool for a top four finish straight away.
Swansea, or even West Ham and Stoke, look like value in the “Without the Big 6” market if they can replicate last season’s results early on but given the expected early struggles for Liverpool and Spurs the 17.0 on Swansea to finish in the top six may look a fantastic price by the end of October.
Newcastle should probably be shorter than the 6.5 currently being quoted for them to be relegated if they reproduce what they did last season this time around and they may be hoping for the promoted teams to struggle, although Bournemouth and Norwich will probably be very content with their games in the opening quarter of the season.
Category: Football trading strategies
