Charity shield
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The Ashes may be in full swing but the Premier League season is just around the corner and Sunday’s traditional curtain raiser sees Chelsea and Arsenal give a preview of what to expect in the coming months.
It’s been almost four years since the Gunners last took down Chelsea but with Jose Mourinho’s recent trolling about Arsenal’s spending adding some spice we will hopefully get a fully competitive match.
Between 2007 and 2009 all three of these matches finished level and were therefore decided on penalties but there is no evidence that that was anything other than a coincidental streak as just five of the last 21 have been draws. At 3.5 there is no value in this game finishing all-square.
Since the Premier League switched to being a 20 team division the 19 Community Shields have been claimed by the league winners on 12 occasions. Twice those sides were very strong favourites – against Portsmouth in 2008 and Wigan in 2013 – but all the other matches were between genuine title contenders. Excluding those two games the ratio of 10 wins from 17 gives a fair price for the league champions of 1.70. Chelsea are currently 1.80 with Boyles and Coral which suggests some slight value but given these sides have won four of the five shootouts and in the 12 settled in normal time it has been six wins apiece that is not a price we’d want to take.
Arsenal’s pre-season has seen them travel to Singapore where they won the Asia Trophy before lifting the Emirates Cup at home last weekend, since when they’ve been able to prepare for this match. Chelsea, meanwhile, have been to Thailand, Australia and the USA, only returning on Wednesday, so should be the more tired of the two sides. Given Arsene Wenger’s record in this match of W5-D1-L1 compared to Chelsea’s of W0-D2-L3 since 2006, Arsenal look the team to be on and the Arsenal Draw No Bet can be backed at 2.10.
Excluding the two matches featuring Pompey and Wigan, 10 of the last 11 Community Shields have seen both teams score. At 1.75 that looks a stand-out bet in this match while the 1.98 on Over 2.5 Goals (eight of the last nine in this sample) or 3.5 on Over 3.5 (four of the last five) also offer great value in a match where, with little fear of losing, both teams can be tempted to play open attacking football.
Category: Football trading strategies
