Dustin Johnson is most likely a lay
First off here are the positive movers from yesterday’s play at the US PGA golf championship, the “fourth” major. Returns from trading £10 level stakes.
Jason Day – 14 to 7 : £10.00
Rory McIlroy – 13.5 to 10.5 : £2.86
Dustin Johnson – 17.5 to 5.7 : £20.70
Justin Rose – 22 to 14.5 : £5.17
Matt Kuchar – 70 to 25 : £18.00
Martin Kaymer – 85 to 65 : £3.08
Paul Casey – 100 to 80 : £2.50
Danny Lee – 120 to 40 : £20.00
David Lingmerth – 140 to 20 : £60.00
J.B. Holmes – 150 to 42 : £25.71
Jason Dufner – 220 to 190 : £1.58
Russell Henley – 210 to 48 : £33.75
Webb Simpson – 280 to 200 : £4.00
Brendan Steele – 310 to 120 : £15.83
Harris English – 450 to 90 : £40.00
Emiliano Grillo – 470 to 270 : £7.41
Steve Stricker – 480 to 370 : £2.97
John Senden – 640 to 500 : £2.80
Scott Piercy – 560 to 90 : £52.22
Matt Jones – 610 to 130 : £36.92
Charles Howell III – 520 to 350 : £4.86
Ernie Els – 700 to 680 : £0.29
Thomas Bjorn – 1000 to 420 : £13.81
Sang-Moon Bae – 1000 to 450 : £12.22
Anirban Lahiri – 960 to 420 : £12.86
Y.E. Yang – 1000 to 750 : £3.33
George McNeill – 1000 to 520 : £9.23
James Morrison – 1000 to 340 : £19.41
Marcel Siem – 1000 to 420 : £13.81
Rory Sabbatini – 1000 to 890 : £1.24
The usual suspects head the field and Johnson is off to a good start, again. Quite a few players at the front of the field in this tournament are likely to carry form Ford and perform well. The players I was looking to oppose were Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Tiger Woods, Sergio Garcia and a few others. So far so good!
The thing that caught my attention yesterday was Johnson’s move to the top of the leaderboard, I’ve seen this before. I’ve also seen him lose this lead as the tournament progresses, so I thought I would check the stats and see what I would find.
I dug into the database of statistics and have reproduced for you the chart that I came up with. You can see clearly that his round one performance is very good on average, but then it slips in rounds two and three. The margin of error in golf, especially at this level, is absolutely tiny so losing a stroke or two can be the difference between winning a championship and finishing tied 10th. So was interesting to see these statistics. At odds of 5.70, if this pattern repeats he looks a lay.
Category: Golf, Trading strategies
