Option to profit
Been nosing at the Derby vs. Man Utd FA Cup this evening with interest.
Man United are about evens for the match and playing away. This struck a chord with me.
First off, everybody knows how bad Man Utd have been recently. Their last 11 home games at half time have been 0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-1,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0. OK they are away and at a team a division lower, but confidence is obviously fragile. If Derby want to make things difficult, especially tactically, they can.
The lack of fire-power from Man U present an opportunity, but also the general set up to the match as well. When the match gets under way, if the score remains a draw to half time, then you get an option to profit on the first goal.
The odds on the draw will start to come in almost immediately and that will send the odds on Man Utd flying out. But the odds on Derby will, most likely, go nowhere for the first half in there are no goals. They could come in a little if Derby play well. Check out the image below taken from Bet Angel’s ‘Soccer Mystic’ tool which shows this effect.
So if you back Derby before the off and hold for the first half, you effectively get a free option to profit on Derby scoring first. Now, of course, Man United could score and your position would be dead. But it’s up to you if you choose to hedge that chance. But given their lack of goals at the moment it could be a useful option this evening.
What chances do they have of scoring first? While their chance of winning the match is only 20-25%, my models say they have about a 37% chance of bagging that ‘shock’ first goal. A decent payout awaits if they do.
Category: Featured, Football trading strategies, Trading strategies
