Trading the Open Golf
The British Open is different from other majors in that it is played on rotation schedule across a number of ‘links’ courses in the UK. Links courses are traditionally near the sea, are near or on dunes, have an uneven surface and a sandy soil. This is in stark contrast to a lot of ‘modern’ courses which are often set in parkland or woods and carefully manicured.
Weather and links golf
Links golf is very different from traditional golf in that it’s a bit harder to play consistently, especially if the weather is poor. Major championships will see the course set up for greater difficulty and poor weather can make things even harder. The weather this year is looking poor for Friday, maybe settling down by Sunday. This could scramble things up significantly. Last year we had the ultimate in mixed up weather which once again crowned an unlikley champion. The Open has a record of producing them.
Confidence
Golf is a game of confidence as much as anything, so players who are playing well tend to carry that form forward. Dustin Johnson is in his best form ever so a nibble at him has produced ever shotening odds. Golf is one sport where pre-off odds always reflect that.
But that said, US based players tend to suffer with the long trip to Scotland. US Golfers are also not used to playing links golf as well. But players who arrive early and play in local tournaments tend to perform better.
With 150+ selections in the field, I tend to not focus on who will win, that’s an incredibly hard thing to do. However, it’s pretty obvious that it’s quite easy to find a winning lay. That will work, but it also carries a lot of potential liability at the prices you need to lay at. Therefore I tend to pick through players that I think will be in contention or big movers at some point in the tournament and back a selection of them. If you use the dutching tool in Bet Angel this means you can do this to a fixed liability. Out of that group you will very often find somebody who performs well and shortens up significantly which will most likely generate a profit if you are trading. If you catch a cluster of decent selections at large prices, when the price shortens, you can trade out of a profit or leave a bit on them for the title.
Course set up
The difficult course set up will also provide opportunities. The leader after round once has historically only won the title 10% of the time. The leader in round two and three, 26% and 46% of the time.
As we get towards the business end of the tournament, turn your focus to the front of the field. Dutching the front of field within a certain number of shots of the leader has generally been a value bet. We looked back all the way to 1957 and nobody has won the Open after being more than six shots from lead after end of the third round. Even if you narrow that to three shots from the lead you still find a winner 83% of the time.
With improving weather conditions likely, that should hold true.
Category: Golf, Trading strategies
