Saturday soccer stats

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4/1 Man City to beat Spurs + Money back if you lose, 8/1 Arsenal, Chelsea and Southampton to win + Money back if you lose, 5/1 Liverpool to beat QPR + Money back if you lose & for existing Betfair customers 11/2 if Arsenal, Everton and West Ham all win.

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However, Spurs certainly didn’t look like beating City last season as they lost by five goal margins both home and away. Furthermore, Spurs have lost five of their six games since 2011/12 against City with four defeats despite scoring and five of the matches have had at least four goals.

City have conceded in five of their last six matches including all three at home this season and their greater vulnerability this term has been shown in four of their last five matches being level at half-time. They were phenomenal at home against top-half finishers last season as they won eight of nine matches with seven Win/Win doubles and five wins by at least three clear goals. Only three of the wins came to nil, however, and six of the matches had at least four goals. Against a strong over-goals recommendation would be that City’s goal output has been lower this season as they’ve scored more than twice in just two of their seven games compared with in half their 38 matches last term.

Spurs have found the net just four times in their last five games but have kept three clean sheets this season and are unbeaten on the road so far. Last season they picked up just one point at the five teams that finished above them – at Everton – and failed to score in any of the matches. While we still wouldn’t trust them to score, and certainly not more than once, they do look more solid since Pochettino took over and a repeat of last season’s thrashings seems unlikely. City should win but we’d prefer to Dutch the one-goal and two-goal winning margins at 2.0 than take the 1.5 on the straight win.

Over goals looks a good shout according to the statistics. However, recent performances raise plenty of doubts and the price is not too appealing, particularly given Sergio Aguero has spent the international break travelling to China and Hong Kong with Argentina. [Editor – Nice angle]

PREVIEW: Atletico Madrid v Espanyol (Sun, 11:00)

Defeat in their last game has left Atletico five points behind leaders Barcelona and given the nature of La Liga and the form of both Barca and Real Madrid that is already a big gap. Espanyol, meanwhile, are unbeaten in four games and find themselves in the top half of the table.

Atletico will be expecting a response here, however, as they have a fully fit squad and are unbeaten at home since the start of last season with 17 wins from 22 games, including a 4-0 thrashing of in-form Sevilla in their last home match. 13 of those victories were after leading at half-time while 12 came to nil. Moreover, in the last two seasons they’ve won 15 of 16 home games against middle-third finishers including 11 Win/Wins and 12 wins to nil.

Espanyol have failed to score in half their last 18 away matches but have kept 11 of those games level as long as half-time. Defensively the Catalan’s tend to be relatively solid and even against the top six finishers in the past two seasons just two of their eight away defeats have been by more than two goals, with five by exactly one goal. Furthermore, while Atletico have won three of the last four meetings between these teams all four games have seen just one goal.

We fully expect Atletico to win here but Espanyol may well make them work hard for it. To win by exactly one goal is a decent 3.5 shot while Dutching the one-goal and two-goal winning margins works out at 1.87.

Rafa Benitez didn’t manage Inter against Napoli as he was sacked before they faced each other but he managed a degree of redemption last season as his Napoli side picked up four points against Inter, whose boss Walter Mazzarri was previously in charge of the Neapolitan side. Neither side will be particularly happy with the way their seasons have begun, having failed to make the most of relatively easy fixture lists.

Inter have lost their last two games by three-clear goals but at home they’ve been beaten only three times since the start of last season. However, against top-six finishers they’ve won just three of 11 home games in the past two seasons whilst losing four times. While eight of the matches had at least three goals they haven’t been exceptionally high scoring as seven had 2-3 goals with both teams scoring on nine occasions. Furthermore, six of Inter’s last 14 home matches have had fewer than two goals and nine have had fewer than three.

Benitez has rarely been described as an attacking manager and despite having some of the best forwards in Serie A that remains true as half Napoli’s 22 away matches since the start of last season have had fewer than three goals. This is particularly true in the harder games, as it was for Napoli when Mazzari was in charge, and 10 of their 14 trips to top-eight finishers in the past two seasons have had fewer than three goals with none having more than three. Furthermore, half the 14 matches have been goalless at half-time and this fixture finished goalless last season.

The match outcome market is tricky to call with all three outcomes very possible and the draw looks the best value at 3.4 in a match that we see being very tight and with Under 2.5 Goals the standout bet at 1.85.

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