Surrealism
I’m having a bit of a surreal moment…
Clear thoughts
I remember clearly when I decided that I was going to try and make a go of this Betfair thing, it seemed a little crazy. Nobody really knew what I was going on about and absolutely nobody, nobody, thought that what I was doing was remotely sensible.
That was many years ago now and it seemed obvious to me at the time that it was going to be difficult to explain to people. After all it had never been done before, nobody really knew anything about it and the concept of winning whatever the result in a betting market would appear to be, on the face of it, just a load of bloody nonsense.
Even when I started doing it successfully people, still found it hard to believe and this was despite the fact that I had kept very carefully detailed records of everything that I done. But of course, nobody was particularly interested in seeing those records as they could easily form an opinion without them! After a while people shifted their mindset to that of one that I must be doing something else to earn the money. It felt like I was on the inside looking out and I couldn’t be heard.
I remember once telling somebody that I ran a porn site, as that felt more acceptable and easier to understand! It certainly got the conversation going. More than some dull stat on a sport.
Now thoughts
I think it’s fair to say now that trading and advanced techniques on betting exchanges have become pretty well known. However the surrealism comes now from what I see in front of me. I now feel like I’m on the outside, looking in. Let me explain.
From some angle, I know most of the top traders and there are some very clever people out there. Everybody has their own little angle on the market and some of the stuff that has happened is hugely impressive. Even at my developed stage in my career I still learn from others.
From a broad perspective, while it seems to be much more accepted now, the number of proponents of it has exploded. This is in contradiction to markets generally getting harder as time elapses. I reckon this is the classic case of people failing to become consultants as soon as they consult. Basically there are probably a lot of people that find it easier to make money from selling stuff that tells people how to make money, than actually do it.
One of my constant nags, is that people often level that at me. After all I do ‘sell’ the software. But, thanks to the passing of time people have forgotten that I HAD to design the software as there was nothing around that would what I wanted when I started. The software came from my trading. Selling it was a useful way to fund further development, a process that continues to this day.
The hope and the reality
I was sort of hopeful the trading would stop people from using sports book and traditional bookmakers and do something a lot more clever in the market. Something where they would definitely lose less money and hopefully make a bit more. Betting exchanges let you do that.
What seems to have happened though is that the exchange concept hasn’t really been rammed home, either that or people just don’t get it! It’s amazing to see people take really duff prices when a better one is a couple of clicks away. Another concern is that there are now too many people who say they are “experts” in the market, whom quite clearly are not. I’m not brazen enough to claim a status like that without actually doing it and on a scale that I feel deserves the credit, ‘Expert’.
We seem to be at this stage everybody is asking for advice and there are lots of givers of advice but in all honesty, most of it is pretty poor. Not all of it of course, just a very large chunk! I often ponder if it should be mandatory for ‘experts’ to declare there activity as it would be a massive eye opener for the receivers of such information. Of course there is nothing to stop people pushing for that and ensuring awareness. There is no shame in being an expert without doing, after all that’s often what a lot of academics settle for without discrediting themselves. At least people would be aware and make better decisions. As it is there is no way of determining.
I’ve often seen ‘trading’ services, there are not more than tipsters rehashed, nothing more than a gamble. That’s frustrating. It completely misses the point.
The dream is still alive
I guess it niave to assume all would be shining lights on a path to betterdom. But I find it hard to hide my disappointment because exchanges really are the best way to participate in sports/gambling markets. You will lose much less money if you use a betting exchange rather than a sports book or traditional bookmaker and in fact it’s perfectly possible to end up in a winning position if you are just a bit better than the rest of the crowd. Ultimately when I reflect on things, that’s why I did all this in the first place.
So now that I can handover some of the reigns, I quite fancy going out there again to try and just remind people of the opportunity that is in front of them. I don’t have to earn money from selling systems, trading advice or anything related to so I can speak as a free agent. I just need and an attentive base of people to listen and some loyal followers to help get the message across.
I hope you can join me on my continuing journey.
Category: General
