Cheltenham Preview Day 3

Let me start by saying this is my opinion on the forthcoming racing. I am not saying this is the oracle, it is only my view and is written to help the non-racing people get a feeling for the day’s racing. If somehow you can profit from it, then it is a bonus

JLT Novices Chase

I am not sure you will find a more competitive race this week and to my eye the betting is slightly wrong. I am not sure why Bristol de Mai is so short in comparison to the favourite Garde le Victoire. The latter gave the former a beating and carried an extra 9lb so there will have to be some real improvement from Bristol de Mai to turn around that form. Yes, it is possible but I would not pay money to find out! The horse I like is Outlander and after the sad demise of No More Heroes yesterday it would good to see this horse get his head in front. This horse likes to be near the front but I feel he can settle in behind the leaders today with Bristol de Mai looking likely to lead. I will be backing pre-race and then looking to lay off in running at around a 50% drop in price. I have to be honest though, only one horse will struggle based on known form and that is the Mount Gunnery. I think he would need a fence start to have any chance; watch his hack up now!

Pertemps Final

This is another bookmakers’ benevolent race and a real puzzle. I have two horses I have noted as horses to follow Warriors Tale and Our Kaempfer. The latter will have gone into many notebooks after his excellent 3rd in the Sefton Novices Hurdle at Aintree and then his departure at Haydock when he was travelling well only to be brought down. You should not expect to see this horse at the front, he likes to travel further back but he travels well in his races. He will need a bit of luck in running as will every horse in this large field but if he gets the breaks then he surely must go close. Warriors Tale was with Nicky Richards and showed plenty of potential only to then disappoint. I read he scoped badly which explains why he disappointed. He has run over fences and hurdles and my concern is the ground. He has run on mainly soft so today’s ground is either going to suit him or he will hate it, I feel there will be no in-between. I cannot imagine Paul Nicholls would run him if he felt the ground would be a real problem. CAVEAT: This is a monster field and so I would not be using huge stakes on these. I will Dutch these two and trade out accordingly.

RSA Chase

With Vautour switching to this event he is attracting massive support. I cannot really offer anything original in this race. If Vautour gets a trouble free round he should win. If you just go on official ratings, he is 11lb clear, so off level weights it will indeed be a shock if he doesn’t win. There are rumours that his work has been disappointing and they were concerned about him getting the Gold Cup trip. I am not sure if this is true or not and we will find out later today. If there are any chinks in his armour, then Al Ferof could be the one to find them. I will simply watch this race and enjoy it, I cannot see any edge to be found here.

World Hurdle

Thistlecrack seems to go from strength to strength and is still improving. He looked so impressive last time out winning with consummate ease. You just have to applaud his trainer for stepping him to 3 miles and then admire the horse’s ability. I feel he will probably sit off the pace, perhaps a little wide to get a good luck at the hurdles. I can see him taking a closer position as they descend the hill and possible winning going away. Easy isn’t it…just wait to collect your winnings. The other horse I like is Alpha Des Obeaux who thrashed At Fishers Cross last time out. This horse also has potential and he will probably bowl along in front. A BTL is tricky because if Thistlecrack is travelling well, the market may discount the price of this horse so you may not get enough price contraction to warrant taking the risk.

Fulke Walwyn

Doctor Harper is a horse I have mentioned before and I think he has a great chance in this race. There could be two ways to play this race according to your preference when trading in play. This horse likes to be buried in the pack and then run on past horses, something he did at Aintree in April 2014 and his price drifted in running as a result of his running style. If you lay first and look for a drift, don’t be too greedy because when they reach the top of the hill on the final circuit I can see William Biddick looking to take closer orders as they descend and turn for home. If you want to back in running, you should get a better price, or one at least as high as the SP. Then look to trade out as they run for home with him hopefully vying for the lead. Small stakes please, this is a tricky and competitive race.

Good luck

Tags: cheltenham, festival

Category: Horse Racing