Luck and Skill in sport
Sport is generally about two different players or team competing with each other. It’s unlikely they will be equally matched in every respect, though not impossible. But typically a differential exists between the two. However, luck can be a key component in a sport as well.
Luck in football
The number of goals in football is low, an average of 2.60 goals a game. Watch this video to learn more about that.Over the course
Over the course of a match, even if your team is dominant, a couple of lucky decisions and a failure to finish off your chances can easily negatively impact the outcome of the match. There is a fair amount of luck in football, especially in close games. Putting together a long winning run can be difficult unless you are significantly more skilled than your opponents.
If the match was of unlimited length or only stopped when ten goals had been scored you could solve this problem. The length of the season also solves this issue. It’s true that luck averages out over the course of a season.
Tennis – What’s the point?
The first thing to note is there are a lot of points in Tennis, on average 60 a set. If there is an obvious difference between them that can be averaged over the course of the match through each point much easier than football.
This is why you often see Tennis matches going off at very short odds, but not on football. You also often see an outsider really battle away at a heavy odds-on favourite, maybe even winning the first set, but despite this, their odds don’t seem to come in that much.
To see the impact of a break, use Tennis Trader to work roughly where the odds will be. It works out the theoretical advantage, then projects it forward over a match for you to examine.
The thin line
Have a look at chart below and you can see just how important small percentages are in a Tennis match. I have compared two players and varied the advantage one has of winning a point against another. You can see the variance running along the x-axis. Tennis matches contain many points where this advantage can play out, unlike football. Even if it is very slight, it gets significantly magnified over the entire match. So in a match where there is no advantage the chance of either player winning is evens, but tip the advantage 2% to one side and you can see the starting odds shift to 1.60. Shift it to 5% and the odds come right in, to less than 1.30.
Summary
In sports where they are a lot of points, games or unlimited length. Skill is more dominate than luck. Where there is a limited window to play a sport and the chance of significant points or goals are fewer, luck becomes more dominate as a factor.
As you can see, there is less luck involved in winning a Tennis match than a football match.
From a trading perspective, if luck is high then returns will be variable and more erratic, but if you have your strategy correct and account for exception good and bad runs, that’s fine. But high skill sports tend to revert much quicker. Make sure you account for these differences in your trading.
Category: Trading strategies
