Trading Football on Betfair – Trading under 2.5 goals
The Soccer Mystic profiling tool is a way to help identify opportunities and give you that all important edge when trading soccer matches – it’s packed with a number of features to assist you when trading any of the Match odds, Over/Under or Correct Score markets and will help you pin point what times to get into and out of positions for the most value.
If you prefer the Over/Under markets then Soccer Mystic can offer you some invaluable help, not just with opening and closing of a position but also how you would manage an existing trade IF a goal is scored.
For example, I might like the look of the upcoming Bristol City Vs Aston Villa match and expect there to be very few goals (see bottom of the post if you’re unsure how to forecast goals). I’m therefore looking at backing ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ in this match. But before I do I want to know where my danger times are so I can try and formulate a backup plan in case it starts to go wrong.
After launching ‘Soccer Mystic’ I’ve clicked on the ‘Over / Under Probability’ tab, selected the ‘Under’ data line and set 2.5 as my target number of goals. I have also turned on the ‘Profit line’ (shown in light blue) – and it’s this line that will be important to me here.
What this is showing is when my trade will be in profit and when it will be in a loss, as ill be backing on this occasion so want to see the odds shorten if the green data line goes above the blue profit line I will now be in a losing position, while its below I’ll be in profit. So, if I were to back under 2.5 goals at KO at the current odds of 2.02 as soon as the match gets underway I’ll begin to move straight into profit, and if there are no goals scored there will of course be a steady decrease in the U2.5 odds as the match progresses.
But that’s wishful thinking and very few matches will actually end 0-0 so I want to know what will happen if a goal is scored and see how it effects the odds and more importantly my profit or loss. To do this i simply need to enter the time of the goal, the chart will then update and show me what effects that will have. Let’s start by seeing what will happen if there is an early goal say after 5 mins – as you can see and would expect the odds drift sharply going way over the profit line meaning I would now be in a loss – no surprise there but using ‘Soccer Mystic’ I can also see the following two key pieces of information.
A, Exactly how bad the damage is likely to be by seeing were the odds are likely to drift to
B, How long I would then have to wait without further goals before I got back to scratch or even moved back into profit.
Knowing those two bits of information will help when deciding what I’ll do if there is an early goal scored, so if it does now happen I can be prepared.
I might also want to know just how far into this match it does need to be before I can remain in profit even after a goal is scored, by having a play with the timing of the first goal ‘Soccer Mystic’ will show me this on the chart, even at 25mins a goal will still see me move into a small losing position however with no further goals in this half I would be back in profit within about 10 mins and by half time be back up to a decent profit as the odds will of shortened to around 1.70
After a little more experimenting with the goal times I’ve found that in this match if it gets to about 35mins without a goal I can still remain in profit even after the 1st is scored.
Now what about a 2nd goal, what effects will that have? You can find this out in just the same way, after a little further playing about with the goals times I can see for this match that a 1st goal after 35mins and a 2nd goal after 69 mins will keep me in profit throughout.
Depending which of the Over/Under markets you are trading you can do this by adding up to 6 goals (so all over under markets up 5.5 can be checked).
Even if you did not check prior to the match and had already backed the U2.5 goals or placed any bet on the O/U or Match Odds markets, as soon as a goal goes in there is nothing to stop you firing up soccer mystic punching in the goal time and seeing where you now stand and then having a play around with some scenarios before managing your position accordingly.
If you’re new to trading football and/or not sure how to get started in forecast the expected number of goals check these video tutorials.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDCAUZE … 9&index=40
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xog-QZv … 9&index=39
Or keep an eye on the ‘Goal Ratings’ thread were ‘Euler’ frequently posts his goal ratings for you to use.
https://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic … &start=391
Category: Featured, Football trading strategies
