Better with ten men

28/09/2009 | By More

It’s always been frustrating to see people comment that a team seems to play better with ten men, the stats don’t back this up. That said, this isn’t a great example; as the team who had the player sent off did go on to win! However, you can see that the price reacted quite clearly when Da Silva was sent off.

I haven’t modelled a sending off accurately just yet but, I am getting there. On this occasion the market decreased Man Utd’s chance by 20% on the sending off. The upshot of this? It’s always worth watching players who already have a yellow card!

090923 - Football - Man Utd vs Wolves - Da Silva sent of 30 - Goal 66 mins

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Category: Using Bet Angel

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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