Fourth wicket fall key for Indian trade

01/04/2011 | By More

After six weeks of thrilling cricket we are down to the final two nations as they battle it out for the World Cup trophy on Saturday.

Australia are the most successful cricketing side at World Cups, having won the competition no less than four times. However, after Ricky Ponting’s side team were beaten by five wickets in the quarterfinals by India, so there will be a new name on this year’s trophy. The Aussies were chasing their fourth consecutive tournament victory before crashing out early this year.

The final represents a fantastic opportunity for traders to make a profit as well as sitting back and enjoying the action. Having looked back at the past three finals, one will find that the side that has opened the batting has been victorious in the past two tournaments.

Delving a little further into some of the statistics from the previous three finals will reveal that if either opener scored a half-century or better their side went on to win the match. Adam Gilchrist scored 54 in the 1999 final, 57 in the 2003 final and 149 in the 2007 final against Sri Lanka. A fast start in the final certainly helps the side settle and takes the pressure of the batsmen further down the order. The 2003 final where Gilchrist posted 57 runs, helped Ponting reach 140 not out coming in at number three.

Should either of the openers of the team that bats first score a half-century the match price should not change too much and the recent trends suggest they will go on to win. However, during this tournament, while their top four have been sensational, India have been notably lacking in the lower order. Should they bat first – which they must be expected to do if they win the toss – it would be a good idea to back India for 275/300/325 runs or more beforehand, laying off after the fall of the fourth wicket. MS Dhoni’s men went from 4/305 to 10/338 against England, from 4/268 to 10/296 versus South Africa and from 4/218 to 10/268 against the Windies.