City or United?
Tricky, neutral ground, key players out, non-descript match, revenge for an FA Cup exit. Many factors in play.
I did a cut of data this morning against similar looking matches. I say similar because I analyse matches on a much deeper level than just look at odds and other top line levels or form. I open up the match and examine what the market is discounting on a number of levels and then recompile it. The neutral aspect of this match makes this a little harder and I’ll admit that most of my data contains the function of home advantage, which is not on display today. I don’t think this is a match I can really get involved in TBH.
However, here is what I found in my database.
95 matches fitted a similar profile to the one we are looking at today. The average score was 1.26 goals to 1.34 for a total of 2.60 goals. The market is discounting 2.47 goals today.
Win and draw rates from the database worked out at cumulative odds of Home (City) 2.94, Draw 3.45 and Away (Utd) of 2.70. As there is no home advantage you should discount the chance of Man City winning. So the market doesn’t seem that far out. Because it’s a bit of a grude match you may see some action on the bookings market I suggest.
Category: Football trading strategies
