Carling cup lessons
Some interesting lessons from last nights Carling Cup.
First, the best bet of the night wasn’t on Man Utd or Crystal Palace but elsewhere, have a think about it. In the underlying match itself there was a in-play characteristic that really showed up Man Utd’s struggles. It made an outside bet on Palace a good option.
I have to thank an ‘expert’ for hihglighting this characteristic that I hadn’t looked at before. But rather bizarrely this academic was using it to prove almost the complete opposite of what I am using it for. I found it by reading some of the more academic blogs out there. I often find this interesting as they are trying to answer the why of the more subtle aspects of football.
The problem you have with information is that you often find a problem with the way people approach things, especially academics. They tend to lack subjective thought. It’s easy to slip into the mode of looking for justification of something, rather than taking a step back and understanding what actually creates a characteristic. I.e. you seek to justify your findings rather than getting feedback on them. This often leads you down a blind alley which is what happened on the blog post I read.
I took one look at it and thought, ‘That’s interesting, but doesn’t seem right’. So I rolled up my sleeves and went to replicate his findings only to find out there was additional information contained in them that he had missed. This was only because he was seeking to illustrate and prove a point. In doing so he missed the a different point, in fact I’d say he got the whole thing wrong but I haven’t done enough to confidently say that just yet.
I have to say I’m not keen on these types of cup matches but did well this week from both of them by taking positions that were fairly likely to pay off or offer limited downside. Despite the mixed up lack of quality it proved entertaining. The Europa league is turning into the Carling cup of Europe by the look of it. So I’m a bit mixed on that this year, but will be hacking away at it again tonight.
Category: Football trading strategies
