A tale of last day relegation
Last day of the premiership today, hoping for a few twists and turns on the last day.
I recently watched Southampton get promoted to the Premiership. It’s the end of a seven year wait and has finally exorcised the ghost of relegation from seven years ago. But for me it also has been a point of closure after I sent my team down seven years ago! Well I say I sent my team down, I didn’t, but it felt like it.
I’m not superstitious or anything and believe that you create your own luck, but seven years ago I had a very curious experience. I dreamt the result of a football match. Not that unusual for me to dream about sports when my face is stuck infront of it almost 24/7. But this dream was so vivid and in such detail that I made a note of what happened in the dream. When a post appeared on the Betfair forum called ‘I had a dream’ I posted up a summary of my dream and promptly forgot about it. It couldn’t come true as I wasn’t going to the match. However a few months later that changed, so I posted again: –
Unbelievably, despite having this dream many months before the match, the match unfolded exactly as I had dreamt. Obviously all a crazy coincidence, but it was funny. Actually it wasn’t funny, it felt like I had somehow relegated my team by my mere attendance. I also struggled to comprehend, at the moment the goal went in, whether I was actually having another dream or not. It has to rank as one of the weirdest moments of my life. But the funniest comment came on the thread that was on the Betfair forum: –
My phone started ringing at the end of the match and before long the press got hold of the story as well. After confirming it with Betfair the story went out. The person who gave me the tickets also phoned and told me that he thought I was joking about the dream, else he wouldn’t have given me the ticket!
Several people have subsequently commented on how it was so obvious that it would happen to me. If we look at it rationally, I guess you could speculate a number of things about how I came to predict the score. When you look at the outcome it wasn’t totally unpredictable, so perhaps I had subconsciously processed the data without realising it? I’ve been looking at football statistics for around 30 years, so that wouldn’t be a surprise. With the pressure on, it was likely I was thinking more about this problem than normal. That was probably the most likely cause. Of course you also have the survivorship of these events; if nothing unusual happened, it would have been forgotton. I think what I am saying here is, I wouldn’t suggest you use this as a strategy!
Anyhow, I can now forget this experience as Southampton are back in the top flight. Though I have to say I’m not looking forward to it. In the lower leagues you feel much more in touch with the game and watching them in the lower leagues reminded me of the feeling I used to get when I stood on the terraces as a youngster; you can imagine playing for your team. You also have this upward bias, you are always thinking about promotion. In the premier league it’s a completely different game now and the best anybody can hope for, unless they are funded my a billionaire who is prepared to waste £250m a year on wages, is mid table obscurity at best. You also have one eye on the relegation battle, it’s not half as much fun IMHO. But hey, I guess its a better place to be long term.
I’ll let you know if I have any more crazy dreams!
Category: Football trading strategies, Psychology
