By the skin of their teeth
Last night I forecasted around 24 goals and we ended up with 22. I should have used a decimal place as my spreadsheet actually said 23.5, but forecasting half a goal often doesn’t make sense to some readers! Tonight I am aiming for 22.75 and we have a generally more competitive set up for the matches tonight. Dortmund caught my eye on the last round and I’ll be looking closely at their match with Real Madrid this evening. I’m not convinced the market has priced this match correctly.
This post and the one from last night should give you a nice idea on the variablity of football. I can be roughly right on goals, the winning teams and various other factors, but individual scorelines are tricky. Some things are not tricky though and expecting Man Utd at home, down to an early goal(s), to make their way back into the match is not the hardest pick ever. The market priced Braga at 1.70 for the win when 2-0 up.
It was a similar scenario for Barcelona. But you have to feel sorry for Celtic who put in a fantastic rearguard performance. Barcelona traded at a high of 13, before going on to win by the skin of their teeth with the last kick of the match. Both scenarios produced massive profits if you laid the leading selection throughout the match.
Another skin of the teeth moment for somebody in the Man Utd match. When United scored their second goal the market reacted by backing them in to 1.03, a fat finger moment for sure. But whoever committed that massive error got away with it thanks to a 75 minute goal. I bet they were sweating a bit on that! An interesting nights action.
Category: Football trading strategies
