Nadal scrapes through in Monte Carlo
Rafael Nadal prepared for his assault on the French Open by narrowly beating unfancied Russian Grigor Dimitrov today.
I love matches like this because, unless you are a value seeker, there isn’t much point in backing somebody, Nadal, at such short odds. So much risk and so little reward. So you inevitably end up laying the red hot favourite or backing the rank outsider.
Dimitrov lost, 2-6, 6-2, 4-6, Nadal using the ninth game effect to push for a break at a critical moment and get it. The starting odds implied that Nadal would win this match 9.5 times out of ten and you couldn’t disagree with that. But when trading you are not particular worried about who wins at the end of the match. More about who is winning at some point during it.
Big odds can provide quite a payoff. So over the course of a tournament I’m not looking to be right all the time, just some of it. When you bag a decent result it can cover the many where your trade just doesn’t work out. Therefore, quite often, my opening gambit in Tennis is the back the outsider.
First graph is profit from backing Dimitrov with £10 stakes and total return if traded out at that point and that is followed by the Betfair graph.
More please….
Category: Tennis
