Short priced Tennis finals
We’ve reached the closing stages of the French Open and have ended up with two short priced favourites for both finals. One is the function of the seeding and draw, the other through form.
Of the two matches the women’s final looks to hold more potential, if Sharapova can come up with a game plan to unsettle Williams. In Tennis the most common tactic is to come out all guns blazing and try and get a quick break in the first set before your opponent can settle. If that happens its game on, but if Williams form holds then its difficult to see beyond that.
Two issues with both finals is the start price and volatility profiles. The start price means that the average traded range in both matches in right near the lower end of expectations and that present much less opportunity than a competitive match. The average drift on the favourite at these odds is about half that just a few notches higher and, of course, the potential to back them in is a bit limited. The average trade range for all players is at the lower end of the market as well, so in all honestly, both finals look generally unappealing to me as trading contests; but I’ll keep on eye on them. I’d have a preference for the women’s final and may just record data for the men’s. But hey, you never know, do you?
Yesterday’s semi final, which I and many others had billed as the real final, really lived up to expectations. £43.8m traded and after an indifferent start Djokovic really came back at Nadal like he really wanted this one, but he couldn’t quite pull it off. Still a few years left to do it though Nole. In the absence of a new competitor to an ageing Nadal I think he will pull it off sooner or later. I have attached a visualisation of the best trades on Djokovic for the record. It was a pleasure to watch and I was thankful for the five set slog fest.
Category: Tennis
