Open Golf – What happens to the leaders?
You know me, I can’t look at a sport without trying to understand the structure behind it. So I’ve been looking at how various Open courses play and the dynamics of leader on different rounds. I’ve gone back to 1957 to be thorough.
First thing to note is that the average winning score at Muirfield is six under, there’s your target! But that hides a wide range of winning values. The lowest was par and the best 13 under, we seem to be heading towards a six this year.
If you look at the first round leader or co-leader they win the tournament 10% of the time, the second round leader, 26% of the time and the leader/co-leader at the start of the third round wins 46% of the time. When the lead is three or less that percentage varies a little but not much. It’s only when the the leader heads into the final with with a lead of four of more does it make a real difference in the outcome. So a lead of three or less is very vulnerable.
With the scores so tight on a tricky course at Muirfield it’s difficult to pick a winner from the top of the leaderboard, so it should be heading into a really interesting final day. Here is hoping for the first English winner since 1992!
Category: Golf
