Manchester Derby – Match preview
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Man City vs Man Utd – Match preview
The first Manchester derby of the season looks set to be an important battle, with city bragging rights the difference between first and second in the past two seasons. It’ll also be the first derby for both managers and while David Moyes hasn’t enjoyed much success at the other big clubs, his record over City is superb. Since 2007/08, Moyes’ Everton won nine of 12 league meetings with City, losing only twice.
Man City have won three of the four league meetings between these teams in the past two seasons but they’ve not had huge success in the home fixture. They’ve W1-D1-L3 at home in the past five seasons and three times they failed to score. Their home record, as a whole, however, has been excellent in recent years. Since 2010/11 they’ve won five of nine home games against top-four finishers.
Man Utd lost at Anfield in their last away game, but while they didn’t create much they were rarely threatened after conceding an early goal. The champions have lost just two of their last 20 road games, and have W3-D3-L3 at top-four finishers in the past three seasons. On the balance of things, City look a touch too short and, with David Silva a major doubt, the value looks to be with the away side. Since joining City, they’ve won 71% of matches with Silva compared to just half the games he’s missed and United look underrated at 2.06 on the Asian handicap +0.25.
We wouldn’t expect a particularly open game, however. Since 2004/05, all 18 Everton/Man City matches had fewer than four goals, with 13 having -2.5 strikes. Moreover, this fixture has had fewer than two goals in four of the past five seasons. City have had -2.5 goals in six of their nine home games against top-four finishers in the past three seasons and neither team has looked particularly fluid domestically under their new managers. Silva’s likely absence again leads to an expectation of fewer goals with 39% of the matches he’s missed since 2011/12 having -1.5 goals and 56% having -2.5 strikes. If this game is anything like the Liverpool/Man Utd game a few weeks ago the Under 2.5 goals price of 2.05 will look generous come 4pm Sunday.
Wayne Rooney has looked particularly sharp in United’s last two games and having scored in eight of his 17 starts in Manchester derbies he looks decent value to add to his tally. Six of the eight derbies he scored in, he netted the first goal of the match, and with the expectation of a low scoring game 9.0 looks a big price to be the first scorer.
Category: Football trading strategies
