Merseyside Derby
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Premier League: Liverpool v Everton (Tue, 20:00)
The first Merseyside derby of the season was a 3-3 thriller and with both teams still occupying positions in the top six and separated by just one point this is one of the biggest meetings between these teams in years.
Liverpool have won 10 of their last 12 home matches and have scored at least twice in each of their last eight. Furthermore, they tend to score early, having netted before half-time in 11 of those 12 games. While it should be noted these haven’t been the hardest run of games they do also dominate the derby record and haven’t lost to their neighbours at Anfield since 1999.
Everton have lost just twice this season but they’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last eight games and the goals have also started to dry up as they’ve scored only six times in their last six away matches. With injuries to Ross Barkley, Gerard Deulofeu and now Bryan Oviedo they look set to struggle. Particularly given they’ve lost eight, and won none, of their 13 trips to top-six finishers in the past two seasons and teams currently in the top six this term. Liverpool look a good price for the win.
Just two of Liverpool’s last 17 matches have had fewer than three goals and seven of their last eight home games have had four or more strikes. This fixture finished goalless last season but that came in Luis Suarez’ absence and given their first meeting this season we can’t see that happening again. With six of Everton’s last eight away games where they’ve conceded before half-time having at least three goals backing overs seems sensible.
Premier League: Spurs v Man City (Wed, 19:45)
Spurs go into round 23 level on points with Liverpool in the fight for the final Champions League spot, having won their last four matches. They certainly come into this game in better shape than when these sides met earlier this season. Unfortunately for the Lilywhites, Man City have won 10 of their last 11 games starting with that 6-0 rout.
City did lose their only trip this season to a side currently in the top seven and they’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last nine road games. However, they’ve scored 13 times in their last five away matches and Spurs have conceded in all 11 of their home games against top-eight sides last season and teams currently in the top eight this term. With City in great form and having won 14 of their last 20 away games when scoring – including 4/5 at top-six sides – while Spurs have won only one of their eight matches this season against the current top eight, a Man City win looks the most likely outcome.
The bet we like best in this match, though, is over-goals. 13 of City’s 22 matches this season have had at least four strikes and given their fairly average clean sheet record it appears they’ve been happy to get into open contests. It’s been pretty effective for them – six of their last eight wins have come despite conceding. Spurs have also looked a lot more dangerous since Tim Sherwood took over and since 2011/12 all five meetings between these sides have had at least three goals, with 4/5 matches seeing four or more. Given this, overs seems a good opportunity on this match.
Category: Football trading strategies
