Chelsea vs. Galatasaaraearaery
Chelsea vs. Galatasaray
Really looking forward to the match this evening!
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 121 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 70.9% chance of a Chelsea win, a 10.2% chance of a Galatasaray win and a 19.6% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 80.2% chance of a home win, a 8.3% chance of a away win and a 11.6% chance of a draw. This converts into odds of 1.25 12.05 & 8.62 respectively.
The market is forecasting 2.74 goals. Historically there have been 3.17 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.95. Historically 60.3% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into decimal odds of 1.66. This is hinting at back value in this market.
The home team has scored at least one goal in 95% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 53.7% of matches. The home team have scored two or more goals on 71.1% of occasions and three or more goals on 18.2% of occasions. The away team have scored two or more goals on 18.2% of occasions and three or more goals on 5.8% of occasions.Both teams have scored 49.59% of the time or decimal odds of 2.02
Caveat – All the historical data doesn’t take account of the away goal rule, so this should explain the variance to long term results. That’s were the opportunity will lay tonight.
Comparable recent matches with roughly similar odds: –
Home – 2012 – Arsenal vs Olympiakos – Result – 3-1
Home – 2012 – Botafogo RJ vs Atletico Go – Result – 4-0
Home – 2012 – FC Basel vs Videoton – Result – 1-0
Home – 2012 – Plzen vs Hapoel Tel Aviv – Result – 4-0
Home – 2012 – Arsenal vs Montpellier – Result – 2-0
Home – 2012 – Liverpool vs Southampton – Result – 1-0
Draw – 2012 – Inter vs Neftchi Baku – Result – 2-2
Home – 2012 – Rapid Vienna vs FC Wacker Innsbruck – Result – 2-1
Away – 2012 – Napoli vs Bologna – Result – 2-3
Draw – 2013 – Everton vs Aston Villa – Result – 3-3
Away – 2013 – Leicester vs Huddersfield – Result – 1-2
Draw – 2013 – Chelsea vs Sparta Prague – Result – 1-1
Home – 2013 – Fiorentina vs Genoa – Result – 3-2
Home – 2013 – Dortmund vs Malaga – Result – 3-2
Home – 2013 – Man City vs West Brom – Result – 1-0
Category: Football trading strategies
