Author Archive: Peter Webb
I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000.
I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.
Saturday Soccer Stats
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Bayern have conceded just one goal in their last 11 games and have won four of their last five home matches by at least four clear goals, so Leverkusen are facing an uphill battle as they head to the Allianz Arena.
However, Leverkusen have put …
Kaizen
Nobody is perfect
You know what, nobody is perfect. We all get emotional, we all defend our views and our patch of turf vigorous and sometimes errantly. But when I started 20 years ago I wanted to achieve something really special. So each morning I wake up, that’s my objective. I think about what I can do today to nudge my activity to a new level. I think hard about what I, not others, are doing and how I can …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments
PREVIEW: Southampton v Man City (Sun, 13:30)
Southampton have confounded the critics this season to sit a scarcely believable second after 12 games. Man City, in contrast, have largely disappointed their fans in their attempts to defend the title. However, they kept their Champions League hopes alive in midweek and will now …
Hennessy Gold Cup – One of my favourite races
I have fond memories of the Hennessy Gold Cup. I’ve traditionally done well at this race and its the race I traded live at the IX Investor show for Betfair in 2006.
Seeing a betting company at an financial investment show was a shock for many people and lots couldn’t understand why we were there, so we had real trouble getting people to come near the stand.
This was when I rolled up my sleeves and traded live for everybody. …
Get rich slowly…..
I woke up to another negative gambling story the other morning: –
I’ve almost given up trying to champion the more positive aspects of what I’ve and others achieved over the last 14 years. Because everytime I try, something like this gets thrown into the ring. I seem to be commenting far too frequently on these sorts of things, but it’s …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments
PREVIEW: Arsenal v Man Utd (Sat, 17:30)
The past few years have seen Arsenal fail to perform against the best teams in the league time and again, and their record against Man Utd is no exception. Arsene Wenger’s men have won just one of their last 14 games in all competitions against …
Trading Schadenfreude
Once a year we are treated to the bug ridden spectacle that is ‘I’m a celebrity get me out of here’ or IACGMOOH for short!
I used to be a bit of a sceptical whether you could reliably trade reality TV shows but slowly and surely I’ve come to learn that they actually make good trading fodder. Typically, reality TV shows are very volatile. We have already seen this on the show this year with Gemma Collins freaked out by …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments
Scotland v Ireland (Fri 19:45):
Scotland have drawn the first half in six of their last nine matches
Seven of Scotland’s last eight home games have had fewer than three goals
Six of Scotland’s last seven wins have been to nil and five were 1-0 scores
Ireland have lost only two of …
Cheltenham Open meeting
At last, some quality comes back into the jumps season!
With the Cheltenham open this weekend we can look forward to the fact that the festival is only four months away! Hey, you need something to look forward to during the, often bleak, winter season.
The Open is a useful meeting and volumes will be higher than normal so it’s an opportunity to get tucked into some decent markets. This isn’t like the Festival though so you shouldn’t get wildly …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments
PREVIEW: Liverpool v Chelsea (Sat, 12:45)
You could argue Liverpool lost the title last season in their games against Chelsea, as the Blues did the double over the Reds having previously failed to beat them in six matches since another double in 2009/10.
Liverpool’s form has been poor this season, with the …
Melbourne Cup meeting – Day three
I was going to post up a breakdown of the big day, but the unfortunate circumstances surrounding the post race period put paid to that. Couldn’t bring myself to post enthusiastically about proceedings given that. In case you don’t know what happened the BBC has detailed the unfortunate set of circumstances.
From a trading perspective things went pretty well. I don’t expect to set records on every major race meeting now, due to the time I’ve been in the …
Melbourne Cup Meeting
Me and the Melbourne cup go back a few years now. Many moons ago I got interested in the ‘race that stops a nation’ and learned that it really did stop the nation, they have a national holiday today.
So, intrigued, I got up at 4am one dark winter Tuesday to see what all the fuss was about. Nothing really happened apart from a lack of sleep and I returned to bed disappointed. Back then I had converted have the …
Mexico 1 – 0 USA
I’ve written about this sort of stuff before on the blog, but given my location at the moment it’s worth visiting it again. I’ve added a video at the bottom to bring home the point a bit more this time.
I would like to trade this week, but I’m going to move location to do it. I’ve shifted out of LA and down the coast to cross the border. It’s only a couple of hours from LA and from San …
Betfair US – California HQ
As you know I’m in la la land at the moment and it’s not the first time I’ve been here. Having worked for a couple of US companies in my time and thanks to my interest in Warren Buffet et al, I’ve often popped over here to do something or another most years since the early 90’s.
When Betfair started taking off in the UK I was quite interested in seeing how legislation would play out over here. To give …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Man City’s run of wins came to an abrupt end last weekend as they lost at West Ham while Man Utd salvaged a point at the death against leaders Chelsea. That late Robin van Persie equaliser did City a huge favour as they avoided …
Laying in the sand – Part two – Santa Anita
So, following on from my trip to Ireland to see Laytown races, I’m now in California and literally laying in the sand.
There are a range of reasons for that, but Santa Anita was another item off the bucket list. I’ve put a load of photos on our Facebook page if you want to see Santa Anita without the crowds.
I always enjoy California. Plenty to do for everybody, the weather is always fantastic and LA bay has miles of …
Holiday booked
Having worked hard during the summer I’ve been using the time since the end of peak season to catch up on a few must have moments. So this week, until Saturday at least, you wont have me in the markets. I’ve taken care to book my Betfair holiday or else its going to cost me 15,000 points or so!
I hopped on a plane on Sunday and headed out of the country for a short while. I’ll be back trading …
How extrapolation trips people up when trading
A trend is your friend, until the end.
One of the most common mistakes I see in newbies is trend following. Trend following is when you latch on to a pattern and extrapolate it. It could be a horse that is heavily drifting or coming in, perhaps a football team on a great run or form, or a poor one. Perhaps a team has had 20 games under 2.5 goals. Is there a trend, why, or this a natural aberration?…
Sunday Soccer stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
PREVIEW: Man Utd v Chelsea (Sun, 17:00)
Chelsea remain unbeaten in all competitions this season as their impressive form has seen them move five points clear at the top of the table. Man Utd, meanwhile, are still adapting to life under Louis van Gaal and this is only the second time in …
Using Bet Angel football ratings
You may have seen me post ratings from time to time and a debate raged on the forum about what exactly I was posting and what was it? So I thought I would take time to explain the rationale behind the ratings. You can find the ratings posted to this thread on a regular basis.
How did the ratings come around
Way back when I was trying to win the football pools I realised I needed to understand how to …
95% return on stake
I thought that headline may grab your attention that the screen shot!
Basically it’s an accurate description on what I did last night before the champions league matches started, only I tend to do it on a larger scale and that reduces percentage returns. For this example, which I am documenting in detail for my course, I did it using highly replicable £10 stakes. It would be easy to add a zero to this number. Harder to add two!
Before …
Saturday soccer stats
Betfair currently have the following football offers available today, click on any of them for full details: –
4/1 Man City to beat Spurs + Money back if you lose, 8/1 Arsenal, Chelsea and Southampton to win + Money back if you lose, 5/1 Liverpool to beat QPR + Money back if you lose & for existing Betfair customers 11/2 if Arsenal, Everton and West Ham all win.
These stats are brought to your by our friends …
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Fingers at the ready
After some below par racing recently, we explode into a smorgasbord of quality today. Though in typical racing fashion we have five cards on this afternoon!
Top of the list is Newmarket where prize money totals £668k over 7 races. The return of Cheltenham sees a more modest £67k for their seven races. But the presence of both should make for a decent afternoon of action.
Haydock and Redcar chip in with some lower grade action but some of that …
Betfair to broaden cross matching in football markets
I’ve been aware for some time, but now it’s official; Betfair are widening the cross matching net to crossover into related markets.
What exactly does this mean?
Betfair have coined the development ‘Cross market liquidity pooling’ and it’s taking place on football. It’s not due till November and will roll out if everything goes ok.
The bottom line is if you place a bet in one market it will appear in another and vice versa. This will have the effect …
The Bank of England vs San Marino
The racing looks poor today, so I’ve turned my attention to the Euro qualifiers this evening. But I can’t trade them as I am fulfilling my promise that after a long summer earning some money I’ll use the quieter part of the season to spend it. So this evening I’m taking my son to watch England thump San Marino.
The misery of watching England
When I was young I went on several school trips to Wembley but never saw England …
Traders of the Prix De L’Arc
Once a year I will taste some French racing like a connoisseur tastes French wine, with a sense of appreciation but with the gusto of a true enthusiast.
I don’t tend to trade on Sunday’s, or on French racing; but the richest race in Europe always draws my attention as it and the companion races are nearly always an opportunity. Most of the surrounding card in the UK is not the greatest quality, so I’ll tend to do some other …
Salisbury
Whenever I see Salisbury on the card it reminds me of a document that Betfair published many moons ago.
I saw Salisbury on the card today and the same bell rang in my head, but also a bit of alarm at the two and three runner races on the card! How poor is that? But back to the main topic.
Back in 2004 Betfair issued a document that actually clearly laid out what a market looked like. In the document …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
The Merseyside Derby kicks off the Premier League weekend and if last season’s meetings are anything to go by we’ll be in for a cracker. Liverpool won this fixture 4-0 back in January while the first derby last season was a 3-3 at Goodison and Sturridge
Trading the Ryder cup
Once every two years the sporting world turns its attention to what is turning into a classic sporting Rivalry, the Ryder Cup.
Many years ago it didn’t have anything like the profile it does now. Post war it was a chance of US golfers to show how much better they were than UK players. Then the rules changed to make their opponents UK and Ireland but that was still dominated by the US. Then in 1985 when it became the …
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