Author Archive: Peter Webb
I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000.
I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.
The flat is back
Looking forward to the return of the flat turf season this weekend with the Lincoln at Doncaster.
We should rejoice at the return of the flat turf season. It’s return will herald less clashing and generally bigger fields. In the winter it can be a right pain when you have many cards and all the races and are falling all over each other. This will mean you should see better opportunities and more, just around the corner. I’ve produced a …
Using traded volume to trade on Bet Angel
In this video I describe how to use the two traded (matched bet) volume indicators on Bet Angel. A simple but effective way of understanding where the short term volatility is driving market prices.
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Cardiff City v Liverpool
- Since 2010/11 Liverpool have lost 7 of their 10 trips to promoted teams while 8 have had at least 3 goals
- 13 of Liverpool’s last 16 away matches have had at least 3 goals, with 10 having 4 or more
- Liverpool have scored before half-time in an incredible
Questions appear over Betfair Australia
Discussions are ongoing on the Bet Angel forum around speculation that Betfair may exit Australia: –
https://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=9077
It would be a real blow to Betfair IMHO if they did consider exiting this territory. At their IPO it seemed like they were ready to take on the world and I distinctly remember part of the pitch being that being a listed company would give them more credibility in new territories. But instead, France, Germany, Spain, Greece, Italy etc. etc. etc. etc. …
Man Utd vs. Olympiakos
Do or die for Man Utd and to a certain extent David Moyes tonight. Looking forward to the match.
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 70 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 65.4% chance of a Man Utd win, a 13.9% chance of a Olympiakos win and a 21.3% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 65.7% chance of a …
Chelsea vs. Galatasaaraearaery
Chelsea vs. Galatasaray
Really looking forward to the match this evening!
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 121 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 70.9% chance of a Chelsea win, a 10.2% chance of a Galatasaray win and a 19.6% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 80.2% chance of a home win, a 8.3% chance of a away win …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Hull v Man City
- Hull have lost 4 of 6 home matches this season against the current top nine
- Hull have been level at half-time in 7 of their last 9 home matches
- Man City have won 4 of their last 5 away matches whilst scoring 14 times
- 10 of Man City’s
Cheltenham Day 3 & 4
We’ve teamed up with our friends at Proform to bring you one of their race cards at Cheltenham, for FREE! Download today’s racecard by clicking on this text.
Cheltenham day three
A decent day where I managed to pull out a number of good results across both exchanges. It was much more like Tuesday and completely different to Wednesday that threw a few curve balls! So looking forward to tomorrow and the Gold Cup!
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Cheltenham day two
We’ve teamed up with our friends at Proform to bring you one of their race cards at Cheltenham, for FREE! Download today’s racecard by clicking on this text.
Cheltenham day two summary
A really interesting day and one that produced many surprises in complete contrast to day one. It would have been nice to have two similar days so that we can take some of that forward to day three. As it is we have it all to look …
Excellent start to Cheltenham
We’ve teamed up with our friends at Proform to bring you one of their race cards at Cheltenham, for FREE! Download today’s racecard by clicking on this text.
Cheltenham day one summary
Well that went well.
Tuesday’s are always a day for experimenting and testing the market so I don’t usually get really stuck in, but I realised quickly today that the markets were behaving themselves so I got stuck in. I tried a number of strategies and they …
Free Proform Cheltenham racecard
We’ve teamed up with our friends at Proform to bring you one of their race cards at Cheltenham, for FREE!
If you haven’t checked out Proform yet, it’s one of the most capable pieces of software for looking at racing form. It’s contains a number of interesting features which you can check out by visiting their site. I first came across it when trying to find the reason for anomalies I saw in certain race types I was trading. …
What you can do with a £10 stake?
I’ve done this experiment a few times on the blog where I use a £10 stake and do something with it. Last week, with Cheltenham looming upon us, it’s well know that the Cheltenham markets will be well and truly stuffed up with money. That can be tough and it’s likely you will need more money to make some this week. So I thought it would be a nice reflection to trade with small amounts again as a demonstration and …
Sunday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Serie A: Napoli v Roma (Sun, 19:45)
Napoli have slipped six points behind Roma following a run of just two wins in their last seven games. In the same time Roma have conceded just once and won five times. However, Roma’s form on the road is less impressive as they’ve scored just …
Seasonality in Horse Racing
Winter racing markets can be a struggle and traditionally produce less opportunity than at other times of the year. This video discusses this.
Key points from Betfair results
Top line numbers
- Revenue up 5%. Underlying earnings growth is difficult to asses because of previous adjustments, so I wont attempt to interpret that.
- Underlying exchange revenue was +1%, but bear in mind there have been a range of price rises so this hints at declining underlying business. The sportsbook has gained £2m in revenue over the past year, the exchange £400k and Betfair US is up £2m, still quite small in the scheme of things but growing much faster.
Bank Building
So, not long till Cheltenham.
I don’t have a specific target for Cheltenham, I just want to line up everything as best as possible. I’ll review previous years data, check my understanding of the markets and make sure I am as ready as I can be.
One of those aspects is building up a bank big enough to use at Cheltenham. If the markets are suitable I’ll really go for it and you need a stack of cash to do …
Has Paddy Power overstepped the mark?
There is a storm a brewing tonight.
They say all publicity is good publicity, but there must be an invisible line that is crossed at some point. Judging by the feedback to their latest promotion Paddy Power appear to be at least on that line.
With the world, in part at least, turning its eyes to South Africa for the trial of Oscar Pistorious, Paddy Power thought they would put a market up for it; click here if you wish…
A bit of a special spreadsheet
Many thanks to Switesh for creating, uploading and detailing this spreadsheet and then allow us to publish it.
There is a lot you can do with Bet Angel and with the Excel spreadsheet integration the sky is the limit. You can use the spreadsheet in the background while you do other things with Bet Angel as well. You can trade on the main interface and also use the automation if you wish, all at the same time. Don’t forget you …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Fulham v Chelsea:
- Fulham have lost their last six home games against top-six team including 4 defeats without scoring
- 6 of Chelsea’s last 8 wins have come to nil, including 3 1-0 scores
- This fixture has had just 25 goals in the last 12 seasons with 8 of 12 matches having
How you really make (trading) decision
If you haven’t seen this episode of Horizon it is worth a watch: –
It is titled, ‘How you really make decisions’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03wyr3c/Horizon_20132014_How_You_Really_Make_Decisions/
I’ve used some of the examples in this episode in my courses from time to time.
I became interested in sub-optimal behaviour when I started working out how to win the football pools. I figured that while there was an inbuilt edge against me in he market, most people wouldn’t use optimal behaviour to place their bets …
Galatasaray 2-0 Chelsea?
Wouldn’t it be ironic if this was the scoreline this evening after all other English teams lost by the same amount. Or are Chelsea a dark horse? Looking forward to seeing the legend that is Drobga this evening. Who can forget his last campaign for Chelsea?
Here are match results from matches that have had very similar set ups in the past: –
Draw – 2007 – Newcastle vs Arsenal – Result – 0-0
Draw – 2008 – Tottenham vs …
Similar matches
When looking at matches like this evening’s champions league, I’ll often look at matches that had similar characteristics in the past. You would have seen me post up information on previous posts. For example, in the Man Utd match this evening my stats threw up the following: –
The market is forecasting 2.39 goals. Historically there have been 2.18 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38. Historically 33.3% …
Sprinter Sacre misses Cheltenham
Cheltenham not far away and the big news is that Sprinter Sacre will not be there.
Nightmare for Antepost backers but a dream for layers as it traded as low as 1.37 on Betfair.
I note that Henderson is just saying that Sprinter Sacre is ‘missing 10%’ so not injured, just feeling the timing isn’t right for the horse. This brings back memories of Kicking King which traded at 1000 on Betfair before going on to win the Gold Cup …
Saturday Soccer stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Chelsea v Everton:
- Everton have scored in each of their last 9 matches against Chelsea
- Chelsea have recorded 7 2-1 wins in their last 21 home matches including 4 in their last 7 hosting top-half teams
- Everton have kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 matches
West Brom v …
Another way to trade a football match
In a recent blog post I talked about how team news can affect the price of matches before the off. Here is the link: –
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2014/01/08/trading-team-news-football-matches/
But today generated a different sort of opportunity due to the unfortunate events in the Urkraine.
Due to uncertainty about the security issues of playing the Ukraine, Dynamo Kiev vs Valencia was moved from Ukraine to Cyprus. No such fears appear to be blighting the Spurs match.
If you are at home the …
Champions League – City vs Barca – Curious
Ahhh, after the disappointment of the FA Cup at the weekend we transition into something altogether different.
I like the knock out phases of this competition as it brings a real incentive to score (or not). So that adds to the dynamics of the matches. The volume bumps up as well so that means you can get stuck into the markets. The big matches out there now should engage your interest because they will be good practice for the World …
FA Cup trading so far..
A quick review of how the FA Cup has traded so far this year. Pretty much the same as prior years TBH.
In the third round Premier league teams were 96.84% of the market. Today that stands at 99.15%, I think the winner could perhaps come from the premier league this year! If you look at the movers from the third round you see a slightly clearer picture, but obviously a lot of that is down to the draw: –…
It’s always darkest before dawn
In the UK we have had a tough winter. Storm after storm, rain, flooding, unprecedented weather not witnessed for 250 years. But it will end and this is where the title on this blog post comes from.
We all know that day follows night and vice versa, but in a period of time relative to yourself, sometimes it seems there will be no end. But I can assure you that everything in life works in cycles.
Remember 2013? Only last …
Liverpool vs Arsenal
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League: Liverpool v Arsenal (Sat, 12:45)
Arsenal, in recent seasons, have been characterised by their awful record against the league’s other top teams. In the four seasons prior to this they lost 12 and won only two of 20 away matches against other top-six finishers, while their equivalent home record of …
Strange places to trade from..
Over the many years I’ve been trading, I generally never pass up a clear opportunity to do a decent trade or trading session. This has led me to trade from all manner of places.
Just before I left my final job in the corporate world many years ago I’d often trade in the toilet. Bit odd you may think, but as I got more and more into trading I started to take bigger and bigger positions and they need careful …
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