Author Archive: Peter Webb
I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000.
I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you……
LEARN!!!!
I came across this phrase this year and I think it’s a neat one. It encapsulates the mental process you need to go through to be successful in pretty much anything in life.
What is talent?
It’s nice to think we are talented or some how ‘special’ but in fact a lot of talent comes through good old fashioned hard work. We have discussed it often in the psychology section of the forum. Generally there are no short cuts, …
Betfair ‘ask the MD session’
In case you were not aware Betfair are holding a ‘Ask the MD’ session this week. It’s a great opportunity to ask Betfair’s senior management about any burning issues you have.
There is often a lot of debate on various forums and social media about Betfair’s strategy and what they are doing and why so this event this week presents you with the opportunity to ask those questions directly to Betfair and to carefully digest the resulting explanations. Too good …
Sunday match previews
These statistics are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
In the first fixture, I will forever remember the cat trick at Anfield which livened up a rather dull 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture that year.
Spurs v Liverpool (Sun 16:00)
While Liverpool have certainly been the more eye-catching of these two teams this season there is just three points between …
Man City vs Arsenal stats.
I’m looking forward to this clash as it will be a decent test of both teams and will hopefully lay down a market for the remainder of the season. These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. Also check out Betdaq where the early kick off matches are commission free! BetdaqAngel is fully feature free trading software for Betdaq.
Man …
Europa league goal ratings
Goal ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
Red Bull Salzburg vs. Esbjerg – 124%
Tottenham vs. Anzhi Makhachkala – 124%
Dinamo Kiev vs. Rapid Vienna – 116%
Valencia vs. Kuban Krasnodar – 110%
Standard vs. Elfsborg – 110%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. APOEL – 110%
Thun vs. Genk – 108%
PAOK vs. Az Alkmaar – 108%
Betis vs. Rijeka – 108%
Lazio vs. Trabzonspor – 106%
Freiburg vs. Sevilla …
Champions league goal ratings – Wednesday
Goal ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
Barcelona vs. Celtic – 138%
Chelsea vs. Steaua Bucharest – 128%
Marseille vs. Dortmund – 124%
Napoli vs. Arsenal – 118%
Schalke vs. FC Basel – 118%
Austria Vienna vs. Zenit St Petersburg – 112%
AC Milan vs. Ajax – 110%
Atl Madrid vs. Porto – 102%
I have priced in 25 goals this evening.
If you are interested in how …
Champions league ratings
Goal ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
B Munich vs. Man City – 130%
FC Copenhagen vs. Real Madrid – 128%
Sociedad vs. Leverkusen – 118%
Olympiakos vs. Anderlecht – 116%
Galatasaray vs. Juventus – 112%
Man Utd vs. Shakhtar – 110%
Benfica vs. Paris St-G – 108%
Plzen vs. CSKA Moscow – 106%
I have priced in 24 goals this evening.
Sunday match previews
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Please check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Sunday Match Previews
Fulham v Aston Villa (Sun 13:30)
Fulham maintained their record of scoring in every home game this season on Wednesday. Unfortunately, two late goals consigned them to a ninth defeat in 11 home games. At the same time, Aston Villa were winning at Southampton despite having just 23% of the …
Weekend player analysis
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Please check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Player analysis
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a three significant players who will be missing this weekend and see what their absence might mean.
N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
West Brom v Norwich
Anthony Pilkington, Midfielder, Norwich
Anthony Pilkington …
How did the world cup draw affect your teams chance?
Money talks and as the World Cup draw was made, the market moved as people discounted a favorable or unfavorable draws. But for whom and how much?
The big winners were Argentina as the market shifted nearly 4% in their favour. Was England’s draw so bad? They slipped from 28 to 30 in decimal odds, only an decline of 0.25% in implied probability terms. They had little change, they have slightly less. Spain suffered the most as their chance of …
The Bitcoin trading phenomenon
One thing you will notice about the Bet Angel forum is that not only do we talk a lot about sports trading and sports markets, but we also talk a lot about general trading and other trading markets.
As you may know I am active in both and push equally hard in all directions to learn more about all markets. I bought my first shares in the heady privatisation days in the mid to late eighties and pursued a well …
One of my favourite races of the year
The Hennessy Gold Cup was run at Newbury yesterday and I have fond memories of this race as this is the race I traded live at the IX Investor show for Betfair in 2006.
Seeing a betting company at an financial investment show was a shock for many people and lots couldn’t understand why we were there, so we had real trouble getting people to come near the stand.
This was when I rolled up my sleeves and traded live …
Do teams perform better or worse after European games?
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs.
European hangovers?
At the start of last season we analysed the impact of European games on teams’ following domestic matches. What we found was that backing teams playing at home after an away trip in Europe was a potentially profitable strategy.
When removing games where teams faced a knock-out game in Europe for their next match (i.e. their domestic match was sandwiched between two European knockout matches) …
Conversation with a Journalist
Had breakfast with a journalist last week in London.
Here is the background to why we met up when I was in town. Over the years I’ve seen so many stories about people who lost a lot, I mean a real lot, gambling. Some lost through there own fault, but sometimes it was for completely nefarious means, by gambling with other people’s money. I wondered why the media doesn’t publish the opposing story, somebody that actually made something.
So I …
Europa league goal ratings
I like the Europa league, lots of matches split into two groupings. Though the liquidity can be a little light on certain matches. I like the range of matches though that are variable and often give you a chance to average out a strategy.
Tonight I’ll be keeping an eye on Spurs to see how they perform after there thrashing at the weekend. You would be surprised what clues you can pick up from watching how teams interact, perform and …
Champions league goal ratings
Goals ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
Real Madrid vs. Galatasaray – 136%
Man City vs. Plzen – 132%
Juventus vs. FC Copenhagen – 128%
Paris St-G vs. Olympiakos – 114%
CSKA Moscow vs. B Munich – 114%
Shakhtar vs. Sociedad – 110%
Leverkusen vs. Man Utd – 102%
Anderlecht vs. Benfica – 98%
I have priced in 24 goals this evening.
Champions league goal ratings
Goal ratings for this evening, projected variance to long term average: –
Porto vs. Austria Vienna – 125%
Dortmund vs. Napoli – 123%
Arsenal vs. Marseille – 122%
Ajax vs. Barcelona – 115%
Steaua Bucharest vs. Schalke – 104%
FC Basel vs. Chelsea – 101%
Zenit St Petersburg vs. Atl Madrid – 100%
Celtic vs. AC Milan – 95%
I’ve priced in 23 goals.
Another graph
I’m presenting another course today; if you are interested, I’ll be doing one more course on 9th December before I change the format in the new year. We still have a few places left on that one.
Amongst many things I’ll discuss and explain, I’ll be talking about this graph today. It’s curious how different strategies can throw out similar graphs. If you have seen some recent graphs I posted up you will spot the similarity, but the strategy …
Racing post security breach
Just so I can send the message out to all channels as quickly as possible. It looks like Racing Post has suffered a security breach and people with accounts there may have had their details compromised. Racing post appear to be putting a message on their site this morning but it’s returning a 404 error at the moment. However I have had a couple of people send me this email. We are running a thread on the forum for people …
Market watching – Day of the drifter
I’m an avid market watcher. Every day for years I’ve collected data on what I’ve been doing and what the market is doing, where the odds are going, what’s happening etc. This allows me to ‘look under the bonnet’ of the market and understand what is going on. On occasion it throws up some real anomalies. On Monday we experienced some of that.
Monday was the ‘day of the drifter’. If you would have laid the favourite, the majority of …
What England need to do….
First off, while the England vs. Germany match will be must watch viewing for both countries this evening, personally I think the Sweden vs. Portugal match will be a cracker and is set up nicely for some drama and great potential trading opportunities. Ibrahimovic or Ronaldo won’t be going to Rio, who will it be?
Meantime back at Wembley England have a chance to show they are ready for Rio.
I don’t think you can read too much into the …
Santa delivers early xmas present
No I haven’t finally got a Christmas card from Betfair, just a catch up on events at Santa Anita a couple of weeks ago.
I’ve had an on off relationship with the breeders cup over the years but this year turned out to be quite good in the scheme of things. It was marked by good and bad races but the good ones produced something and the bad ones didn’t really lose much. So I’d rank 2013 as one of …
Why friendlies can be a trading minefield
I wont be actively trading the international friendlies this evening. There are many things I can predict about how a football match will pan out, but doing this on friendlies is much harder and a bit more random. Basically I don’t know if I have an edge.
Friendlies, especially like those tonight, are for managers to try a few things out. Shove some fresh talent onto the pitch and see how they perform. Change shape, try a few tactics and …
Europa league ratings – 20:05 kick offs
I’ve priced in 33 goals in this batch of matches. Ranked from most goals to least, expected variation to long term average.
Tottenham vs. Sheriff Tiraspol – 138%
Az Alkmaar vs. Shakhter Karagandy – 123%
Sevilla vs. Slovan Liberec – 118%
Lazio vs. Apollon L. – 112%
Rapid Vienna vs. Genk – 106%
Estoril vs. Freiburg – 105%
Thun vs. Dinamo Kiev – 101%
Legia Warsaw vs. Trabzonspor – 97%
Maccabi Haifa vs. PAOK – 97%
Rijeka vs. Lyon – …
Champions league ratings for Wednesday
Excluding the early kick off.
Barcelona vs. AC Milan – 131%
Atl Madrid vs. Austria Vienna – 130%
Dortmund vs. Arsenal – 125%
Chelsea vs. Schalke – 110%
Napoli vs. Marseille – 109%
FC Basel vs. Steaua Bucharest – 108%
Ajax vs. Celtic – 103%
I’ve priced in 21 goals this evening.
Champions league ratings for Tuesday
Expected variation to average of goals scored. Most goals to least.
Plzen vs. B Munich – 137%
Paris St-G vs. Anderlecht – 129%
Man City vs. CSKA Moscow – 128%
Juventus vs. Real Madrid – 118%
Shakhtar vs. Leverkusen – 114%
FC Copenhagen vs. Galatasaray – 107%
Sociedad vs. Man Utd – 102%
Olympiakos vs. Benfica – 93%
I’m penciling in around 24 goals this evening.
Melbourne cup
Me and the Melbourne cup go back a few years now. Many moons ago I got interested in the ‘race that stops a nation’ and learned that it really did stop the nation, they have a national holiday today.
So, intrigued, I got up at 4am one dark winter Tuesday to see what all the fuss was about. Nothing really happened apart from a lack of sleep and I returned to bed disappointed. Back then I had converted have the …
Derby Day
Isn’t the Derby in June? Yes and no….
If you are in Australia, early tomorrow morning (UK Time) is Derby Day in Victoria. This kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival and a week of top class Australian action. On Tuesday we have the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup. It’s a busy period full stop on the horse racing front, as we also have the Breeders Cup in Santa Anita.
Typically the Friday on Breeders Cup day is …
Stop losses and the illusion of safety
Drachten is a small town in Holland, but what’s got to do with stop losses & risk?
Well, a few years ago almost all traffic lights and signs were removed from the town’s centre in an effort to improve traffic safety. This was based on the theory that drivers pay more attention to their surroundings when they cannot rely on strict traffic rules. What happened was that accidents fell because people actually paid attention to actual risk, rather than relying …
Ladbrokes WILL feed bets to Betdaq to boost liquidity
Discussion on the Ladbrokes exchange is the hot topic at the moment. How will it look, how will it work etc. etc?
Today we received official confirmation that Ladbrokes on-line clients, who are being teased with a ‘coming soon’ tab on their home page, will feed liquidity directly into BETDAQ. Visiting BETDAQ’s home page today saw them send a clear message on the benefits of the Ladbrokes integration to all users. I’ve reproduced the graphic for you on the blog.…
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