Author Archive: Peter Webb
I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000.
I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.
Tennis trading – Faking it
Great match last night between Tipsarevic and Ferrer, probably one of the best of the tournament for trading. I was getting a bit tired though near the end. Two of three kids are back at school and it’s early mornings again!
Ferrer went a set up only to find himself two sets to one down, only to turn it around and win on a tie break in the fifth. This match is a great illustration of how some matches are …
Trading Tennis – The US Open
While the summer evening racing markets have finished, thanks to the US Open tennis there is still plenty to do in the evenings at the moment; as long as it’s not raining! It’s raining at the moment, which is why I thought I would pen this post.
Because of the time difference to the US, it is a really useful tournament to trade and the level of interest in a grand slam will ensure good liquidity. It’s a good opportunity …
When to bet on your own team
I’m a strong advocate of not betting / trading on your own team when watching a sport. I like to have a reasoned logical approach to things and trying to place a position on a team that you follow can seriously mess up your head and result in taking positions in hope rather than for a profit. So therefore I don’t bet or trade on teams I follow.
However, there is one time though where I do tend to have …
Trading tennis – Some stats on efficient pricing
Caroline Wozniakci crashed out of the US Open last night after starting at odds of 1.10, or a 91% chance of winning. I am the only one thinking that perhaps McIlroy’s should be banned from seeing Caroline at major tournaments?!?!
This is being heralded as a ‘shock exit’. But how much of a shock is it? I looked at all the results from the first round of action at Flushing meadows and it reveals a wonderful thing about the market. …
US Open tennis
What an intruiging set up we have for the mens tournament this year.
Djokovic isn’t invincible this year, Federer is bouncing on a slow decline, Nadal is out and Murray just defeated his nearest competitors to win a Gold Medal. Murray also likes this surface as well. It’s a tantilising set up.
The top three make up 85% of the market so anybody on Djokovic’s side of the draw could stand a chance of getting into the later stages. If …
Manic Monday
The late summer bank holiday brings with it, not just the traditional rain in the UK, Cartnel is abandoned due to waterlooging; but a plethora of racing as well.
That’s an issue. Even with the one abandoned meeting there are still 64 races in the card. But quite a few of them clash directly and during the day it’s unlikely that all will go off on time so that will bump up the number of clashes.
It’s going to be …
Trading Frankel
Not as easy at it sounds, as expected. But I did get something from the race. Mainly, as expected again, on Betdaq. In fact Betdaq was pretty favourable yesterday. I think today’s card overall looks a little more interesting and varied, so I’m hopeful of a decent day today.
Frankel’s market was characterised by a drift before the off. I was a bit surprised to see this, but it did also happen at Goodwood. You would have thought people would …
York Ebor meeting
An interesting start to the meeting with the return of Frankel.
It’s nice to see Frankel getting out again today, it generates some real interest in racing just as the evening racing draws to a close. Have to say though, it won’t help make the trading day any easier. I think it’s a tricky start to the meeting and there are not many clear cut opportunities across the card. Hopefully I can find some in the run up to each …
Winning Betfair Strategies
Roll up, I have a new system for you, for no effort and little skill you can bag £50k a year and Sir, for you today, it’s only…. Not £499, Not even £99, but just £37. But hurry I am closing offers on Friday and I only have 20 left!
I bet you heard that pitch before, it seems every day my inbox is fills up with offers telling me they have a foolproof system for me. A lot get …
Trading ‘to be relegated’ markets…
As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers will have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic. That’s simple, it’s money!
Comparing the finishing positions of premier league teams over a number of seasons and several Deloitte reports, reveals a strong correlation each year between wage bill …
What changed?
Join the debate on the forum – https://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=6516&start=10
I’m an avid market watcher and over time you expect all markets to evolve and change, I’ve always been keen to be one step ahead of that. Something that worked well in certain market conditions, sometimes doesn’t work a few months down the line; though some things are unchanging.
When a strategy fails you often have to look at yourself first. I made a cock up on a strategy not so long …
Has Athletics shown up football?
I’m still buzzing from all the Olympics action we have been privileged to see recently.
People stretching every sinew of their body for that elusive and hard fought honour, an Olympic medal. A chance to say there were the best in the world. Great honour in representing their country, whether they win or now. Years of training, pushing themselves to the limit of their bodies and stretching what is humanly possible.
Contrast that with the current state of professional football.…
Trading the Olympics
Wow, what a busy few weeks it has been!
For me the School holidays and the Olympics on home soil has been too much temptation to miss. There are not many chances in life to do what I have done over the last couple of weeks, so I’ve jumped at the chance to do it. It has been really great experiance.
Doing that has meant putting trading on the back burner recently. But that’s no problem really, a couple of …
US PGA – The cut
Now that’s more like it!
Tiger Woods is still playing well and in contention, things would be better without that. But on day two a number of players came in from the cold to put in some good rounds and still themselves near the top of the leaderboard and much shorter in odds. We have the weather to thank, almost an inch of rain fell overnight and strong winds blowing in from the sea made the course incredibly tough. So …
US PGA movers
We are suffering from Woods form at the moment. The last two majors have seem a resurgent Woods bottle down the front of the market and that’s impacted our best scenario in the Golf. The weather has been favourable this year as well. Still, here are the best trades from yesterday to £10 stakes, slim pickings.
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano – 780 to 80 – £87.5
Gary Woodland – 370 to 55 – £57.27
Alex Noren – 260 to 40 – £55…
US PGA Golf
I’m currently working a few positions into this market.
I like the US tournaments because you can benefit from decent liquidity in the run up to the start without having to get up a ridiculous O’clock in the morning.
No major movers at the moment, Lee Westwood has drifted a bit. Rory McIlroy looks a little short to me. OK he has an incentive to win, but his form has been a little erratic since his first major. It’s not …
Inspiration overload!
The motto for the Olympics this year is ‘inspire a generation’. I think they are delivering in the UK, can’t comment on the view from the outside in.
Inspiration in an important word. Inspiration shows the way, leads people and asks them to step forward and take things to a new level, inspiration is good.
Seeing somebody successful should inspire you, not make you jealous. That first emotion is a strength, the second a weakness; you can little from it. …
Murray might
Reason to look forward to this afternoon’s gold medal Tennis match with optimism.
Age – Murray is younger than Federer and Federer, despite his world #1 ranking, is in decline. Just very gradual and from a very high peak. Murray is approaching his peak and when players peak anything is possible. Both players are on the process of converging.
Format – Murray got of to a great start at Wimbledon and flew out of the blocks before Federer used his …
Sports overload!
I swear if there is more sports available on TV my head is going to explode!
It seems for most of the summer I have been bouncing from one major sporting event to another and now, with the Olympics on, it’s all gone into over drive. I am definitely going to have a rest at the end of this period.
The Tennis has been by far the most tradable sport at the Olympics and we culminate with the finals this …
Goodwood day three/four
A day of progress yesterday.
It was steady, but nothing spectacular. It’s a nice base to build from and I have finally settled into a pattern for Goodwood festival. Hopefully I can use today and tomorrow to pick off a quality opportuntity. Goodwood has lacked a blockbuster race for me so far this week, so I’m hoping to pick off something useful. Betdaq has been comfortable for me all week so I upped stakes yesterday and got my best day …
Goodwood day two
I didn’t have high expectations for yesterday and those where met!
The Frankel market was especially hard and I had to take a loss. You win some, you lose some and yesterday I lost some on this race. But that’s normal, you can’t win them all and it’s unrealistic to expect to do so, so it’s all about the balance of the two. So I didn’t get a result here but I will almost certainly another time. Looking back I …
The most challenging race ever?
First day of Goodwood was quiet with nothing spectacular coming out of any of the races. I didn’t really get any stand out results from the card, just plodded along all day pulling in steady numbers. Overall a nice result on the day, but no thanks to Goodwood.
Today we have Frankel running. I think this is possibly the most uncompetitive group race I have ever seen in the UK? It’s difficult to do anything useful in a market like …
Goodwood, close but no cigar
So Glorious Goodwood is upon us.
I used to live on the South Coast and Goodwood has always stuck in my memory as a very scenic and entertaining course to visit. Perched just north of Chichester, you can climb Knights Hill and get a great view from which to look down on the course and the wonderful surrounding countryside.
If you fancy a round of Golf, the golf club is only just around the corner and is very enjoyable and …
Germany set to backtrack on Gambling laws
Recently the Germany state of Schleswig-Holstein, to much fanfare, announced the licensing of three operators in it’s territory, myBet, Betfair and Nordwest Lotto. Three weeks later, operators Bwin, Bet365, BetAtHome and Tipico were also approved with their gaming licenses.
However the state recently announced a shock decision to return to German’s Interstate Gambling Treaty. Ralf Stegner had the following to say according to EGR:
“We are beginning to clear the minefield in the German gambling legislation left by our predecessors …
Betfair create Olympic market without winner
I’ve been interested in what the Olympics couldn’t bring on the trading front for Bet Angel users. Athletics markets are pretty quiet in general, but are often full of surprises. Nothing is guaranteed in sport, especially where markets are tricky to price.
I watched the Men’s Cycling race today with half a eye on whether Mark Cavendish was to get his just reward, alas it was not to be. As the competitors re-entered the streets of London I started collecting …
Betfair implement new turnover charge
News from Australia this morning that Betfair are to implement a turnover charge on customers, full details: –
https://betfair.com.au/turnovercharge/
In case you were not aware, a high court ruling this year in Australia has switched the law from a gross profits tax to a turnover based revenue fee for racing. This doesn’t affect the well established and politically well oiledl, but slightly ancient and backward thinking, incumbents in Australia; but does have a significant impact on the new entrants like …
Home advantage when trading the Olympics
So it’s here, never thought it would be possible but I’ll be going to the Olympics on home soil. At 08:12 this morning bells rang out across the country, which woke me up, and announced that the Olympics games has officially started.
When I was young, I was very sporty and dreamt of being in the Olympics. That never happened but I did join at Athletics club when I was older where some of the members were Olympians and we …
Good old Barney Curley
Flicking through the racing today I noticed three Barney Curley runners on the card. Whenever a Curley runner is on the card it’s interesting; when there are three, even more so.
Barney Curley has a long history of landing a gamble. One of hte most famour was the the Yellow Sam betting coup and more recently another in May 2010.
Because of this Curley runners usually attract a lot of attention in the market. People fear they may be …
Open Golf – The cut
Only fifteen players continued to be positives as we reached the cut. But the biggy was a big biggy with Brandt Snedeker coming in from 300 to just 6. This would have netted you a whopping profit of £490 for a £10 stake. Of course your other option was to lay any of the other players outside of this 15 for a profit, your choice. I prefer to find the former.
I was headed for a nice profit till Woods …
The Open – Start of day two
Negative movers outnumbered positive movers by 82 to 30. Full list of positive and negative movers on the forum: –
https://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=6420&p=50704#p50704
Generally a lacklustre day from a trading perspective. I like some fireworks, but generally we have had some movers up, some down, but generally a firming at the front of the field. Which is exactly what I don’t like!
Most of this was caused by two key factors. The weather was better than forecast and the conditions for links …
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