Author Archive: Peter Webb
I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000.
I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.
Another Murray moment
Andy Murray conspired to throw up another great trading match today at the French Open. Unfortunately I had to miss it as I had an appointment with the bank and solicitors!
Murray went off at short odds and traded as high as 21’s before going on to win. 1-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-2. His opponent traded at very short odds before Murray’s comeback, much to the disbelief of people who kept backing his opponent at ever larger odds.
I did have …
Serena Williams crashes out of French Open
Low backers were handed an almightly thumping when Serena Williams crashed out of the first round of the French open this evening.
It is the first time the 2002 champion has lost in the opening round of a grand slam event. Those who read my article of last year on forecasting decline in players may have had half an eye on Williams, but few would have honestly expected defeat this early and in this manner. Most speculative short layers should …
French open tennis – When it’s good to see red!
Today sees the start of the French open tennis and it’s one of those moments when the red clay surface will often mean green for traders.
Grand Slams often produce good matches and the slower surface at Roland Garros will bring shot making and athletism to the fore.
Early rounds of grand slams often bring up very shot prices, but the odd shock. So I’m generally looking to oppose red hot favourites in the early rounds hoping for a slip …
Will Eurovision get the hump?
Over the years I’ve had a good play on the Eurovision song contest. In 2006, after boring myself with the entrants, my evening was lit up by the performance of Lordi which was hilarious to see in a straight laced contest such as the Eurovision. Soon after the voting started it was clear the voters were sending a signal to the contest and the rest, as they say, is history. As soon as I saw the voting patterns I had …
Betfair fixed odds sportsbook launched
I’ve just seen a promo banner appear on Betfair which gave details on how the sportsbook will look and work. You can find out more details here: –
https://promotions.betfair.com/fixed-odds-uk
It looks like we finally have the launch of the sportsbook. Clicking into Euro 2012 football market provides the option to view both fixed odds and exchange odds. Exchanges odds are way better than the fixed odds. I can’t see any value add to a customer on placing a fixed odds …
Now Spain says yes and no to Betfair
Betfair confirmed today that thier exchange will be unavailable in Spain from early June upon receipt of a new gaming license.
It seems Betfair have been granted a licence for a sportsbook and will ‘transfer’ exchange customers to the sportsbook. But the exchange will be shut down while, “Betfair continues its constructive dialogue with the Spanish regulatory authorities and looks forward to working with them in the near future on the licensing of betting exchanges.”
Full details here: –
https://corporate.betfair.com/media/press-releases/2012/23-05-2012.aspx…
Di Matteo probably shouldn’t get the job
Congratulations to Chelsea on a remarkable champions league campaign. The campaign showed up the wonderful variability that is a football. Di Matteo and Chelsea must be on top of the world this morning, but if Chelsea are to build on this they need to start thinking about a new path for the future.
I see the win last night as the culmination of a very long campaign for Chelsea, but increased competition in the premiership means it’s time to build …
Champions league final
Is Chelsea’s name written on the cup?
Before we start, don’t forget to have a play with Soccer Mystic the unique profiling tool contained within Bet Angel.
It never pays to be emotional about anything that you are trying to make money on, and you could be excused for looking for a fairy tale tonight. But the reality is that Chelsea have a tough ask this evening. On the flip side, as we have seen recently, anything can happen …
Frankel Fever
Frankel is back in action as he goes for win number ten in the Lockinge at Newbury today. It’s difficult to forget his winning Guineas run and it will be an interesting race to watch at Newbury.
I flunked the Guineas market when he ran and I’m hoping Newbury will be different, but I’m not so sure. At the time of writing he was trading betwenn 1.30 and 1.40. Looking at the race the market is effectively pricing in a …
Next manager markets
Not so long ago I asked for more next manager markets. We now have three in play at once!
We have managerial vacanies at West Brom, Liverpool and Aston Villa . The interesting this about these markets is that there are a number of mutually exclusive outcomes. For example, Roberto Martinez can not be manager of all three, so two of his prices in the other markets must be false; but which ones?
I don’t actually try and make special …
Rome, York, Kiev
Back to the fold today and have been watching the Masters Tennis in Rome with much interest. It’s thrown up some good matches already and the ‘non-blue’ clay should give us some clues for the French Open. Murray’s match with Nalbandian yesterday had some great opportunites in it.
The Rome masters is a good place to get some practice in before the French open. Typically players will use it for the same reason as well, but be aware of retirements. …
Some key stats from Man City vs QPR
Well that was an interesting match wasn’t it? I went from thinking ‘I’d hate to be a Man City fan right now’ to ‘I’d love to be a Man City right now’, all in the space of a few minutes. You go all season without losing at home then almost blow it on what should have been one of the easiest matches of the lot. It was like Barcelona vs Chelsea but in reverse.
In total the match odds market …
A tale of last day relegation
Last day of the premiership today, hoping for a few twists and turns on the last day.
I recently watched Southampton get promoted to the Premiership. It’s the end of a seven year wait and has finally exorcised the ghost of relegation from seven years ago. But for me it also has been a point of closure after I sent my team down seven years ago! Well I say I sent my team down, I didn’t, but it felt like …
Motorsport mayhem
Another classic example of the complexities, but opportunities, presented in motor-sports markets.
These markets are often difficult to price at the best of times. It gets even more fun when the stewards get involved. Objections, scrutiny, obscure or not so obscure rules, changes, or breaches thereof.
After a blinding lap delivered Lewis Hamilton pole position for the start of the Spanish grand prix. Now a failure to adhere to the rules on his qualifying run down lap relegated him right …
Black Caviar makes it 21 out of 21
Wonder horse Black Caviar stepped up this morning to register her 21st victory out of 21 races. Going off at an SP of 1.06. A total of £2.39m was matched on the race at 07:50 this morning UK time. £2.374m or 99.4% of that was matched on Black Caviar.
Black Caviar was never ever in trouble in the race at all and the Jockey, Luke Nolan, did nothing other than sit on her and steer her. Without any effort she …
Goldman Sachs sells off entire Betfair LMAX stake
Missed this the first time around but thought it was of interest.
INVESTMENT bank Goldman Sachs has sold out its investment in LMAX, the online trading platform owned by Betfair. The bank’s exit comes as the platform struggles to live up to its earlier expectations. Its chief executive left last year as trading volumes failed to live up to hopes. Betfair said that its decision to invest a further £10m in LMAX diluted Goldman’s 12.5 per cent shareholding to less …
Tennis traders turn blue into green
The tournament in Madrid has caught my attention this week. I haven’t traded it much in the past, but the move to blue clay caught my attention. I love uncertainty, as it often creates opportunity.
Madrid is playing on a new surface this year, blue clay. Officially the surface is supposed to play the same as red clay but the top players are complaining that it’s playing nothing like normal, “It’s too slippery”. Players have complained that it is hard …
Cardiff fans turn red over blue
Continuing the blue theme from yesterday. Cardiff fans up in arms as the bluebirds look like they will be forced to change colour. Full story: –
However, the owner may have a point. I pointed out some scientific research on a previous blog post. One element of this was looking at the effect of red and blue and how it affects sports performance or the interpretations of officials in sports tournaments. The results were fascinating.
See the original blog …
Has the FA Cup lost its appeal?
Took some time out last Saturday to trade the FA CUP final pre-off. I was expecting a vibrant, lively market but ended up with the opposite and traded out for a small loss. The racing was yielding much more.
I was surprised at how little matched bet turnover there was. At the start of the FA CUP final there was matched bet volume of £3,533,632. On Tuesday night the same teams met again in the premier league and the matched …
Just another tepid Tuesday
After the fun and games over the weekend we now step back into the ordinary racing card again.
At this time of year we revert to two cards in the afternoon. I don’t really enjoy these very much and last year I swore blind I wouldn’t do them next year. So this year and I going to do a lot less on these afternoons.
Well I say a lot less, just something different. I recently bought a new gadget that …
Just another Manic Monday
It has proved to be a ‘interesting’ Guineas weekend.
Saturday was OK and I netted a nice result on the big race. The FA Cup final was, I felt, a bit poor as a market. I don’t usually attempt to trade it pre-off, as I likely to be on some big racing markets on the same day, but I was suprised at how ‘inactive’ the market was.
Sunday proved to be a bit of mess. Several loose horses and a …
Win a copy of Bet Angel
We are running a competition this bank holiday weekend to win a copy of Bet Angel, full details at: –
You can win whether you are an existing subscriber or not, so feel to enter. But be quick as the competition is only open for this Bank Holiday weekend. Winners will be emailed first thing on Tuesday morning.
If you haven’t used Bet Angel before or for some time why not take a free trial. We are currently …
Newmarket Guineas
Two contrasting years for me recently in the Guineas, for the full story click here for the previous blog posts on Guineas day.
In summary, last year races was tricky to trade and the year prior was a dream. I’d forecast that this years race is somewhere inbetween the two, so I am hoping for a result somewhere inbetween as well. The weather has improved so that should make the market just that little bit more stable.
Reading last years …
Wells Fargo golf – Best trades
Big news is that Tiger didn’t make the cut. Tiger went off at 12’s behind the favouite McIlroy and made par but that wasn’t good enough. Going into day three McIlroy is four shots off the leader Nick Watney. So far the tournament leaderboard is stuffed fulled of decent moves from further back in the starting field. Here is a selection, returns to a £10 level stake: –
Webb Simpson – 32 to 4.4 – £62.73
Nick Watney – 70 …
Lacklustre start to evening racing
Looking out the window I see is droughting down again. Just got into the office today, having had the morning off to relax and get ready for a full weekend of sporting action.
We have the Guineas meeting over the weekend and of course the FA Cup final tomorrow. Fingers crossed we don’t get many more abandoned meetings because it’s really put a damperner on the start of the evening racing season. It’s usually nice to get tucked into all …
Play off promotion clues
Take a deep breath, its play off time. I personally think play offs are a bit unfair. You play well all season only to suffer some injuries which mean you are not automatically promoted, then lose in a knock out competition. I would feel gutted at this.
One thing you may have noticed about the play off is that teams that finish in the top position in the league, in respect to the play off teams, don’t necessarily get promoted. …
Betfair awarded licence in Germany
Hot off the news wires, the man from Schleswig Holstein says Jawohl: –
BETFAIR GROUP (“Betfair”) has today been awarded a licence to operate its betting exchange in the German state of Schleswig Holstein.
Following the receipt of the licence for sports betting, Betfair intends to pay 20% of Gross Gaming Revenue derived from Germany to Schleswig Holstein. Based on current revenue run-rates it is envisaged that this payment will reduce Core Betfair’s gross margin by approximately one percentage point.…
Chelsea vs Newcastle stats
Here are some stats I have gathered for this evenings game: –
Chelsea have scored an average of 2.29 goals per home game and have failed to score on 6% of occasions. Chelsea have conceded an average of 1.24 goals per game and have kept a clean sheet on 29% of occasions. On average they score a total of +1.06 more goals than their opponents at home and each match has contained an average of 3.53 goals. When playing at …
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New blog format
I’ve been posting on this or the older blog for at least four years now, so I thought it was time to refresh it a little.
Over that time I’ve made thousands of posts but they just tend to get lost in the mists of time. There is a real treasure trove of information in here, but we had feedback that lots of people are obviously not finding it, or digging in deep enough, so we have taken the plunge …
Vital stats for the Manchester derby
Top Level
Man City are currently ranked 1st for their league form at home this season. They have won 94% of home games this season, drew 6% and lost no games. They are currently unbeaten at home. Man Utd are currently ranked 2nd for their league form away this season. They have won 78% of away games, drew 11% and lost 11% of games.
Number of goals scored
Man City have scored an average of 3.00 goals per home game …
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