Author Archive: Peter Webb
I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000.
I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.
Betfair results due out tomorrow
If you can get up early tomorrow morning you will be able to see Betfair’s H1-12 results. The first since the introduction of the most recent premium charge announcement and various other factors. It will be interesting to see what impact all the news coming out of Hammersmith this year has had on the underlying business. It feels to me like growth has slowed, but that they will be able to boost the bottom line thanks to their very aggressive …
0-0 Continued…
Well the two key matches I was looking at worked pretty well in the end but the other ‘deserved’ 0-0 at half time ended up 3-0 to the home team. This illustrates a key point.
With any in-play market you are hostage to what happens during the event. If you take a rigid approach to the underlying event you can’t really hope to out perform the statistics that can be modelled in the market.
In yesterdays match Joey O’Brian was …
0-0
Just position taking at half time on this Saturday’s matches and there are a plethora of 0-0’s. 11 out of the 18 matches I am looking at are that score line as I speak.
Of course, underlying those matches are very different characteristics and odds. But I can tell you that each match if you look in real detail will reveal a significant difference between each 0-0. Some are heading for few goals and some should have loads.
The two …
Cross country mayhem
I don’t do much big in-running trading but whenever there is a XC race on I’ll pay extra attention.
Today at Cheltenham 7 of 10 runners took the wrong course (again) and radically changed the profile of the race in the dying moments. Whenever you see a cross country race on the card, always take an interest.
The winner came in at 150 after not looking in contention for most of the race. The key tactic, take the right course. …
Incentive to score
That one word is how I would describe the next two evenings worth champions league matches. Some teams will have a big incentive to score, others to not lose and others no incentive to do anything at all.
All the above will most likely throw up some of the best opportunities you will see in-play in this quality of match. It’s a bit like the knockout stage which returns in February. Early group stages can be tepid affairs but the …
Big week ahead
You may read this headline and wonder what on earth I am on about as there isn’t anything amazing happening this week. OK a few high profile things like the Champions League football, but generally just bits and bobs as we descend headlong into the winter.
This time last year however, we were well in the grip of an incredibly cold spell and it pretty much wiped out all the sports action. So this year we are assured of a …
Lay the draw – automatically
Last week we backed the draw using the new automation feature in Bet Angel, this week we lay it.
Whether you use the new feature to implement something or test an idea, it’s a powerful tool to do either. Based on immediate feedback we have expanded the number of conditions you can apply to your automation which expand your capability further. Bear in mind that using the practice mode you can play around without risking any money and by using …
It’s jungle out there
Another week and another amazing betting system drops into my inbox.
Each one is similar to the last, as for only a few quid, limited to just a few people; you can have a system that requires little work yet prints money. Sounds fantastic, but as we all know it’s just not true. Why sell something for a fraction of the profit it allegedly generates? Just doesn’t make any sense.
In the past I have noticed that most of these …
Carling cup lessons
Some interesting lessons from last nights Carling Cup.
First, the best bet of the night wasn’t on Man Utd or Crystal Palace but elsewhere, have a think about it. In the underlying match itself there was a in-play characteristic that really showed up Man Utd’s struggles. It made an outside bet on Palace a good option.
I have to thank an ‘expert’ for hihglighting this characteristic that I hadn’t looked at before. But rather bizarrely this academic was using it …
Betfair maintenance this morning
Please be aware Betfair has site maintenance going on this morning around 7am UK time: –
Man City away
I had a nose around the footy markets this evening and noted that Man City were around 2.30’s. Wasn’t completely sure that this was what I expected so checked back at recent Man City matches at these prices away from home. In fact I couldn’t find any this year but last year there were three. City won these 2-0, 4-1 and 3-1 respectively.
If we widen the net to include matches between 2.20-2.50 you capture a wider sample including City’s …
An ‘interesting’ Saturday
Well that was an interesting Saturday. I sort of got the feeling that the day may not go as planned right from the off.
Went shopping with the kids to stock up the office and got back a little late which left me no time to put the stuff away. I just had to dump it on the stairs. Sat down to the early start and immediately realised there was a problem… The Internet was at a virtual standstill. I …
The fifth, five years on
It’s the fighting fifth at Newcastle today. It’s often a small field and can be a bit tricky, but it usually contains some opportunities. Only five runners and Binocular is almost evens, that’s a tricky set up.
It’s also the Hennessy Gold Cup. I have fond memories of this race as five years ago today I traded it live at the IX Investor show for Betfair. Seeing a betting company at an investor show was a shock for many people …
Back the draw
OK, this isn’t a strategy, it’s a demonstration. But here is a simple script that uses the new automation tool to back the draw five minutes before the start of a football match and then lays it back five minutes into the match.
You can view the video here at http//www.betangel.tv
No champions league fireworks
Not sure if it’s just me, but I’ve found the group stages of the CL this year a little dull. After my racing hiatus I sat down yesterday evening to see some exciting matches, but not a great deal of opportunity. I guessed Man Utd would be keen to win against Napoli, but didn’t bank on such a quick equaliser! I sense the last few matches in the group stages should ignite some fireworks given the way results have panned …
Poor show
Fired up the racing cards this morning and watched the tumbleweed drift across the screen. Small fields, uncompetitive racing, not a lot to hang your hat on! There are some trading styles will suit the markets today, but I know it won’t really work that well for me. Especially as it’s a Monday. I had a good weekend, so I’m looking to inject some quality, not quantity, into my life today.
I’ll run some automated stuff and perhaps dip in …
Why big companies die
I read this article this morning in Forbes and it absolutely resonates with my former experience in the corporate world. When companies sell their soul to a spreadsheet the long term result is nearly always bad, but if they have strong competitiveness you may not notice at first. But companies that remain true to their core and focus on what made them great in the first place usually prosper and retain the drive to succeed for long periods of time. …
Too early!!!
I was out last night at a charity auction event, doing my own personal bit at this time of year.
The recession must be in full effect as I haven’t seen such low bids at such an charity auction event for some time. In an effort to get things going I was bidding on most items. I got a bit lucky at one point as I nearly ended up with a wedding dress, having started off the bidding, only to …
Automation – Major new release of Bet Angel
We are delighted to announce a new version of Bet Angel!
This morning we have released a new beta version, 1.30, which includes a brand new feature.
The new feature focuses on automating your betting or trading activity and builds on the work we have done with Guardian and the Excel spreadsheet link. In fact you can use this new feature along side any activity in your core market and / or any activity you have in a spreadsheet.…
Bombs away
Every now and again in the racing market an individual arrives that doesn’t make much sense. From a trading perspective at least!
The come into the market and back a selection for a large amount of money, then back again and again and again! I’m not sure the oft quoted description of ‘mad bomber’ is accurate, maybe there is a better description. But what is certain is the impact they have on the market. You could view this as a …
Have you got the X-Factor?
Last year I made a killing on X-Factor, but I’ve been a bit quieter this year. Mainly thanks to not being able to get the risk/reward mix right.
The interesting thing about reality TV shows is that there are no rules or models that you can apply to the market. The unexpected can and will happen, often. Therefore I am always looking for outliers, things that are seem certain or very un-certain but that any producer or editor can catapult …
Quietly moving ahead..
It’s interesting to see that liquidity and market conditions continue to improve on Betdaq. It’s quite possible to sqeeze someting out of most races now and thanks to the favourable commission rate it’s proving a good use of my time. We appear to have gone from waiting for perfect market conditions to a wider range of acceptable reasons to participate, which is encouraging.
I’d honestly recommend using both major exchanges as competition is good in all markets, but some of …
Should Betfair be more secure?
I’ve put a poll up on whether Betfair should be more secure, read on and vote.
As you may / or not be aware, Betfair suffered a security breach not so long ago but choose not to inform customers after consulting on the risks involved in the breach. Personally I feel, whether there was a risk or not, people should have been informed.
The following was recently pointed out to me in the Betfair terms and conditions under the “limitations …
Poppycock
You wouldn’t think such a widely accepted charity symbol could possibly be a controversial figure, but I am sure that FIFA are determined to make it so. You would think a largely political organisation would be able to successfully brush aside any possible controversy about remembering the sacrifice people make during wars in a calm and reasoned manner before anything controversial came of it. But FIFA appear to have fowled up again on this one.
You can see the logic …
Bet Angel on TV
OK, not as glamorous as it seems, we have just sponsored a few races at Southwell today. I’m not available to attend the event but one of my guys will be there. I’ve offered him a bonus if he streaks in front of the winning post!
Never going to be great quality conditions on a Monday, but we hope we have done our bit for racing today.
Stay caffeinated
With the end of the summer racing I’ve been on my travels recently. I’ve skipped a few days, but on bigger days I’ve still needed to do some work on key markets.
Therein comes the problem of how and where. Whether you are staying with friends or in a hotel you also need to have a back up plan, just in case. My solution is to use coffee as my back up plan.
Where ever you are, there is usually …
The long day…………..
Today we have an interesting session. UK racing trundles on from afternoon to evening racing, then the Breeders Cup meeting comes on line in the US. As the Breeders cup meeting on the Friday draws to a close, we then morph to Australian racing and the final day at the Melbourne cup meeting. The remarkable Black Caviar runs again tomorrow and is a incredible 1.06 to win it’s group one race. I think that’s untradeable, but I am tempted to …
Muddled
It’s a bit difficult to disect European vs English form in the Europa league. But we have some clear clues on at least one match this evening.
Rubin Kazan play a much depleted Spurs side this evening and you would have to favour the Russian side given Harry Redknapp’s preference for player his second string in this competition. With the news that Harry will miss the match due to surgery you get the feeling that following a strategy that relies …
R&R
The Melbourne cup went pretty well and I’m looking forward to finishing off the whole carnival in style if I can. I’ve put a few other things on the back burner this week to focus on the meeting. I’m feeling too old to burn the candle at both ends and get away with it! It was interesting to note that matched bet turnover on the Melbourne cup was lower this year than last. It reached about £3.6m vs. £4.4m last …
My Melbourne
Me and the Melbourne cup go back a few years now. Many moons ago I got interested in the ‘race that stops a nation’ and learned that it really did stop the nation, they have a national holiday today.
So, intrigued, I got up at 4am one dark winter Tuesday to see what all the fuss was about. Nothing really happened apart from a lack of sleep and I returned to bed disappointed. Back then I had converted have the …
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