Author Archive: Peter Webb
I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000.
I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.
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Trading in-running
One excellent strategy you can use on betting exchanges, is backing or laying before the off and trading out in-play. Many Bet Angel customers do this or a variation of this, , as part of a profitable activity in the market.
In-running tools
Bet Angel is great for this as you can do it manually or automatically using the automation. On the manual front we …
Let’s stop exchanges going the same way as the Jitney
I’ve just been watching a TED talk and the story about the Jitney bus. It follows on with other peer to peer talks. Watch it here: –
It’s similar to a story I told about horseless carriages to an MP a few years ago. People tend to see innovations as a threat and not an opportunity. That is until such time as more liberal regime pops up and destroys them! Establised systems need not worry about cannibalising their own …
Trading Cheltenham
There is plenty to help you and get stuck into this Cheltenham if you are a Bet Angel user. Not only do you have a vast range of tools available but also the biggest set of videos you can image, a busy forum to chat to other traders and if you are looking to trading automatically a library of examples.Plenty to get stuck into on one of the biggest trading weeks of the year.
There is plenty to get stuck …
Using Bet Angel – Walkthrough videos
I’ve had quite a few requests for, a simple to view, list of videos on getting started with Bet Angel. So this week I’ve uploaded an entirely new play list for – getting started, the one click screen and the ladder interface.
These videos are not my normal videos, but instead they are shorter and designed so that newbies have a clear path to follow for getting started in trading in simple steps. This should get your trading faster than …
Preparing for Cheltenham
We are so close to Cheltenham that I’m now in that final, ‘Have I done everything I can to prepare’ mode.
Cheltenham pretty much makes or breaks March for me. A good meeting and it’s a good March a bad one and it’s a struggle to make the numbers.
Each year I go through the same sort of preparation for big weeks and in this video I explain that process and my thoughts on the run up to a big …
How bookmakers work
Bookies limiting customers has been around for some time. This was a situation I first experienced in the early 90’s, over 25 years ago. Not much has changed since then it seems. If anything, the bookies are much sharper now.
If you want a view on how they do this, read this blog post series that I posted up a little while ago. It gives you the story from very inside of a bookmakers.
My story
The story of how …
When Saturday comes…
When I first started sports trading I treated it like a 9-5 job.
I did all the usual things you would in a normal job and returned to my out of work activities after the day was over. Fairly quickly I realised that this wasn’t going to work. All the best opportunities tend to occur outside of ‘normal’ hours and therefore I had to shift my working patterns.
Shifting my workload
At first this was a little tricky, I started …
Discounted opinion in sports trading
Here is a little-discussed aspect of trading, discounted opinion. First let’s explore what it is?
Discounted opinion pre off
When a market is formed everybody has had a prod a what the odds should be. In some markets, this is obvious; in others less so. But generally, a convergence appears. Unless there is any significant change, that’s the way the market stays until the event starts.
Discounted opinion in-play
When the market gets underway, an opinion forms and the odds …
William Hill living in the stone age
It was with some amusement that I read that William Hill were complaining that the merger between Ladbrokes and Coral was anti competitive.
The main thrust of their argument was that a merger between the two was blocked in 1998 and that: –
“It is important to recognise that the structure of the market has changed relatively little since 1998,” William Hill said, adding that there were 8,983 betting shops in Britain then, compared with 8,958 last year.”
I’m guessing …
My best trade ever (so far)
Preamble
Here is a story that you should gain something from.
I spent last week in Florida at Disney world. This is linked to some meetings I did before I headed there. I was running around London with a hedge fund manager.
The reason we know each other and that so much has happened between us; is all down to few moments in a bookstore in Texas. In fact I wouldn’t have joined Betfair if I had gone through this …
Trade, text and tweet from 20,000 feet
Half term is a good opportunity for a break
So, I decided to head out of the country for half term week. It’s a good time of year to do that and relatively speaking, a low opportunity cost for me.
It’s amazing how technology has changed since I started trading on Betfair. The first time I had to head oversea’s it was pretty much impossible to get a decent internet connection, Skype didn’t exist as a widespread platform and trading …
Echo’s of 77
Leicesters heroics this season echo me back to a period in English football when the impossible happened. The 1977/78 season.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977%E2%80%9378_Football_League
Liverpool were the dominant team and had been for some time. Then out of nowhere popped Brian Clough and Nottingham Forest to storm to the title.
Of course back then things were a bit different and teams didn’t have £1bn to spend on a squad. So success now would be even more remarkable.
More remarkable about that period was …
My trading journey
February can be a bit quiet and with a lack of high profile events in some key markets can be a bit depressing. So how about some inspiration for you?
I grew up in the middle of nowhere into a family of not much. I didn’t arrive in the world with massively high expectations lets say. I left school with not much of a leg up into the world, as my favourite subject was playing sport, so I couldn’t hang …
Poll straw – Trump trumped
An interesting set of results came in from the US caucuses last night. But it highlighted again that people don’t tell the truth to pollsters. I think I can explain.
Everybody hates an outsider
Nobody likes to be an outsider, apart from me it seems. But being an outsider is where some of the best decisions can be made. However it takes a great deal of strength to be different. So when a pollster phones you or harrases you in …
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Interested in Tennis trading? With the Australian open upon us, why not combine some knowledge with the best Tennis trading software around!
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The offer
Order a copy of Bet Angel Professional (excluding one day access) and get a copy of Dan Weston’s – ‘Mastering Tennis trading’ completely free of charge. Click here for an overview of the book, we are …
Hope the Cheltenham trials are rubbish :)
Sorry for the provocative headline, but I’m not able to trade today. It will be the first time in over a decade that I will miss the highlight of January. So I hope it’s rubbish 😉
If you are trading however, good quality racing will great you today at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Fairyhouse; it should be a good day.
I’ve traditionally done well on this day and would hope that it lives up to expectations. I’ll be keeping in touch …
Option to profit
Been nosing at the Derby vs. Man Utd FA Cup this evening with interest.
Man United are about evens for the match and playing away. This struck a chord with me.
First off, everybody knows how bad Man Utd have been recently. Their last 11 home games at half time have been 0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-1,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0. OK they are away and at a team a division lower, but confidence is obviously fragile. If Derby want to make things difficult, especially tactically, they can.…
The big short
Went and watched the big short last night. I enjoyed it.
The film
I thought they dumbed down elements a bit, but that’s to be expected to broaden the appeal. I’d imagine it will go over the heads of a few people that are not interested in financial markets, but it was entertaining and enjoyable if you are into trading in any manner.
As a traditionally comedic actor, I thought Steve Carrel’s performance was particularly good.
Like most dramatisations there …
The top 1%
Saw some headlines this morning from Oxfam about wealth distribution. The glaring headline was that the top 1% of the world ‘own’ the rest of it.
Deeper analysis though exposed the headline grabbing number as a bit of a ‘back of a fag packet’ calculation. Exposed by the fact that ‘It takes cash and assets worth $68,800 (£48,300) to get into the top 10%, and $760,000 (£533,000) to be in the 1%. That means that if you own an average …
Buzzfeed sticks the knife into Tennis integrity
Possibly the most comprehensive document(s) I have ever seen on match fixing emerged last night and are documented in detail on the BuzzFeed site. Called, ‘The Tennis Racket’, is has a provocative headline: –
Betting worth billions. Elite players. Violent threats. Covert messages with Sicilian gamblers. And suspicious matches at Wimbledon. Leaked files expose match-fixing evidence that tennis authorities have kept secret for years.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/the-tennis-racket#.cdBPOYv2b
It’s caused quite a stir, but relates to a period a little while ago. But …
Can Leicester qualify for the champions league?
Did you know, Leicester have been here before? Read on….
Analytics
The thing I love about the modern football analytics movement is there are increasing amounts of, free, data out there that will help you make good, sensible, rational decisions. Far more than I could have ever imagined.
It’s a long way from when I wrote to a magazine in the 80’s about in-play football and the editors response was that he couldn’t see how it would interest anybody.
Quite …
The futility of legislation in the Internet age
Betfair recently decided (most likely strategically) to exit the Canada market. This is a downer for North American sports and despite online sports betting being banned in the US, as I have discovered on previous trips there, liquidity is alive and well. I wonder where that could be coming from? I’m half expecting a review from Betfair to announce a Sportbooks will be launched there in the near future 😉
No sooner had Betfair announced the exit, than username change …
FA Cup third round shocks
Ah, the romance of the FA Cup
The romance bit comes from a non league team coming up against a major club and beating them. But the evidence for regular giant killings is getting a little thin on the ground. But the third round and confidence can make a huge difference.
Small teams and progression
In 2014 we had Sheffield United getting all the way to the semi finals and of course in 2013 Wigan ensured the demise of Mancini’s …
You think Donald Trump is bad!
There has been lots of discussion about Donald Trump’s rants of a mad man recently. So here are some more: –
A CASINO IN EVERY SMARTPHONE – LAW ENFORCEMENT IMPLICATIONS
https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/a-casino-in-every-smartphone-law-enforcement-implications/
This was the hearing that was called when the DOJ OLC reversed a long-standing policy by declaring that the Wire Act applied only to sports betting and not all forms of betting. This policy reversal potentially ‘opens the door’ for online gambling in all 50 states.
One sided views…
Billy no mates
Nobody has invited us around this Christmas, so yet again today, our family is hosting everybody for lunch, but I wont be there. I guess somebody needs to earn the money to pay for it 😉 I’ll be locked in my study and making the odd appearance to say hello.
New years day is a busy day in the sporting world. At least the footy is occurring on a different day this year! But the racing is on today, as …
The Pareto principle
2015 has been about the Pareto Principle for me. Though contrary to the rule, I’m going to end up on about 70-75% of the prior year but have still benefited from a big reduction in required activity. Perhaps I’ve been a little too lax?
I set out on the year to not spend as much time on markets I knew wouldn’t yield as much, so I actively chose to focus on the big opportunities. This isn’t something I’d generally recommend, …
How to win £45m in a few minutes
Four years ago today we were treated to a day of spectacular proportions.
On this this day at the Christmas hurdle at Leopardstown, something went very, very wrong. Voler La Vedette ran home to take that race, but for most of the race £21m was available to back at good odds. Nobody it seemed was able to take all that money in-running however and ‘only’ £1.6m was matched, meaning the loser would have to pay out a cool £44.8m to …
Boxing day markets
So we are at Christmas and everything, apart from your wallet probably, took a break. Now it’s back with a bang on Boxing day.
Putting aside the cricket and the packed football fixture list, there are eleven race meetings today with 769 runners.
The problem you have on days like this is that the races fall all over each other and before one has finished another has already started. They are also generally lower quality and less interesting as betting …
Merry Christmas from the Bet Angel Team
As is tradition each year, we would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your interest and business in 2015.
Each year I learn more and more about the market, how it works and that knowledge makes its way into Bet Angel for your added benefit. We also have some get loads of great suggestions for our many full time users. That’s why we will continue to pioneer a path through the markets for a long time into …
Christmas week and trading (or lack thereof)
I noticed that Ayr has been abandoned today and that makes a bit of a mess of the card. So I think that’s me done till Boxing day on the racing.
It’s usually pretty quiet in the run up to Christmas day in the UK and this week is no exception. Because the holidays shift from year to year, this year Boxing day has fallen on a Saturday. That should be an interesting day! So I’m saving my gunpowder till …
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