Category: Alternative markets
SPOTY
Trading BBC sports personality of the year
A Corbyn coup
I started getting into political markets a few years ago. The first market I seriously played was the US presidential market in 2004. For the last election over there, I was actually present in the country, which was quite interesting. Since then I’ve spent a fair amount of time looking at political markets. The most recent is the next Labour leader. Whether you make or lose money you always learn something from your participation in the market amd the same …
Will models like Augur replace Betfair?
Back during the dot-com boom in the year 2000 disintermediation was a keyword that was floating around.
If you used word disintermediation in a sentence along with the words dot-com, it was highly likely that you’d be able to secure funding for your project the matter how much money you asked for, or how stupid the idea was. Disintermediation was the posh word for what is now known to become as peer-to-peer engagement. Basically two people trading services or goods …
Punting on politics
It wasn’t that long ago that we had fun and games trading the general election, but now another political market has risen to the fore.
The next Labour leader market is proving quite an interesting one. Yvette Cooper is providing the female interest, Andy Burnham is providing a centre left approach and then we have Jeremy Corbyn who is stoking up the far left of the party. There has been a lot of discussion on the topic and a thread …
Is NBA the new WTA?
During my recent travels in the US I sat down at a bar one evening and watched some Basketball. It was an entertaining experience. Fellow bar attendees proffered their opinion and curiosity overwhelmed me, so I reached into my pocket fired up the Betfair app and had a look at the market.
Here is something you may not know. You CAN’T actually log in and place a bet from the US, but you CAN actively look up a market and …
Trading Schadenfreude
Once a year we are treated to the bug ridden spectacle that is ‘I’m a celebrity get me out of here’ or IACGMOOH for short!
I used to be a bit of a sceptical whether you could reliably trade reality TV shows but slowly and surely I’ve come to learn that they actually make good trading fodder. Typically, reality TV shows are very volatile. We have already seen this on the show this year with Gemma Collins freaked out by …
Millions by the minute
It seems every now and again a trading documentary pops up now and again on the TV. The most recent one aired last night, click on this link to watch it: –
Traders : Millions by the minute
I thought it was entertaining but quite lightweight in the scheme of things. It was curiously positioned as new and exciting but online trading in financial markets has been around for ages. I liked the way they focused on the psychological side …
Trading news flow
The importance of liquidity
One of the most important aspects of a successful trading market is liquidity. You can enter any market at any price, but sometimes you will want to get out quickly as well. That is why liquidity is important when trading, it gives you control over your position.
Sometimes you can find liquidity markets in the most unusual places, hunting them has become something I enjoy doing. We’re less than a week away from the Scottish vote …
Eurovision
Even if you are not watching it, you should take a look at Eurovision this evening. It’s caught my eye this year as a competitive contest with several interesting dynamics as a market. I’m out on the town this evening, so I’ve no chance to trade it unfortunately; but I’ll gather data.
I’ve done well in the past by backing outsiders that shorten during the contest and early voting patterns can often give you clear hints to the eventual outcome. …
May Bank Holiday isn’t all about sports
May bank holiday doesn’t actually scream trading on sports markets for me. It pulls me in a different direction….
Long before I started trading on sports markets I spent a lot of time and effort on financial markets and that eventually led me to the Berkshire Hathaway AGM in Omaha Nebraska.
Until I got too busy on sports markets; the first weekend in May, the Bank Holiday weekend, was traditionally the time I would hop over to the US to …
Testing times
It is with interest that I am watching preparations for the new Formula 1 season.
The various teams have been testing this week in Jerez and it’s proved to be a mixed bunch of results so far, but hey, that’s what testing is all about.
But the uncertainty during testing and all the rule changes that have occurred this season could throw up some unexpected results as we head through the season. So I’m really interested in taking a deeper …
The Bitcoin trading phenomenon
One thing you will notice about the Bet Angel forum is that not only do we talk a lot about sports trading and sports markets, but we also talk a lot about general trading and other trading markets.
As you may know I am active in both and push equally hard in all directions to learn more about all markets. I bought my first shares in the heady privatisation days in the mid to late eighties and pursued a well …
Will 1.01 be gubbed tonight?
Must admit that I hadn’t paid that much attention to the America’s cup yachting and even less as a trading event, but the remarkable turnaround by team USA has set up a fascinating finale this evening.
New Zealand raced to a 8-1 lead and it was seemingly impossible that they could loose the cup, but tonight could be set for one of those remarkable sporting comebacks. Certain the momentum is with Team USA.
New Zealand have already been matched at …
Seeded vs non-Seeded tournaments
We have a couple of classic divergences being display in full glory in the markets at the moment.
In Melbourne we have the Australian open Tennis where, in a seeded tournament, the semi finals look like they will be played out amongst the top four seeds. Seeded tournaments are basically there to ensure the top competitors have every chance of meeting in the latter stages.
In the UK, I just watched Bradford City complete a remarkable cup run to make …
SPOTY
I’m enjoying watching sports personality of the year this evening. A self congratulatory indulgence, but justifiably so after a wonderful year for sport in the UK. Difficult to pick an outright winner from a general perspective, so many valid candidates, but Bradley Wiggins has been the short priced favourite for ages.
A point of note however, public based voting competitions can often throw up some really unexpected results. Voting patterns are difficult to predict and campaigns, deliberate or well intentioned …
Next US president is……
US Presidential markets are surprisingly good trading fodder.
OK, I know we have some European football on this evening and the Melbourne cup just passed, but once in four years means I will devote this post today to draw your attention to this market.
The last market in 2008 drew total traded volume of £13m. This was actually down on the previous election in 2004 where a lot of uncertainty created a wild swing in the market. At one point …
Trading the Olympics
Wow, what a busy few weeks it has been!
For me the School holidays and the Olympics on home soil has been too much temptation to miss. There are not many chances in life to do what I have done over the last couple of weeks, so I’ve jumped at the chance to do it. It has been really great experiance.
Doing that has meant putting trading on the back burner recently. But that’s no problem really, a couple of …
Betfair create Olympic market without winner
I’ve been interested in what the Olympics couldn’t bring on the trading front for Bet Angel users. Athletics markets are pretty quiet in general, but are often full of surprises. Nothing is guaranteed in sport, especially where markets are tricky to price.
I watched the Men’s Cycling race today with half a eye on whether Mark Cavendish was to get his just reward, alas it was not to be. As the competitors re-entered the streets of London I started collecting …
Home advantage when trading the Olympics
So it’s here, never thought it would be possible but I’ll be going to the Olympics on home soil. At 08:12 this morning bells rang out across the country, which woke me up, and announced that the Olympics games has officially started.
When I was young, I was very sporty and dreamt of being in the Olympics. That never happened but I did join at Athletics club when I was older where some of the members were Olympians and we …
Will Eurovision get the hump?
Over the years I’ve had a good play on the Eurovision song contest. In 2006, after boring myself with the entrants, my evening was lit up by the performance of Lordi which was hilarious to see in a straight laced contest such as the Eurovision. Soon after the voting started it was clear the voters were sending a signal to the contest and the rest, as they say, is history. As soon as I saw the voting patterns I had …
Next manager markets
Not so long ago I asked for more next manager markets. We now have three in play at once!
We have managerial vacanies at West Brom, Liverpool and Aston Villa . The interesting this about these markets is that there are a number of mutually exclusive outcomes. For example, Roberto Martinez can not be manager of all three, so two of his prices in the other markets must be false; but which ones?
I don’t actually try and make special …
London Marathon
Good luck to all those running the London Marathon today. I still harbour ambitions to do one more marathon, but for the moment I will remain on the side of the road encouraging support. Not a big trading market but it can throw up the unexpected. In 2005 you could have backed the women’s runner in running at 1.50 at 22 miles while firmly in the lead thanks to an unusual situation. It’s worth laying low or backing high …
Punting on the Thames
My first rule for getting involved in the market is liquidity. If there is enough liquidity in a market, it’s usually worth getting involved. So on Saturday I thought I would give the Boat Race a go.
Liquidity wasn’t great at only around £50k when I joined the market, but rose to £300k at the completion of the event. I managed to put a fair amount of money through the market but ended up with a paltry total really in …
Have you got the X-Factor?
Last year I made a killing on X-Factor, but I’ve been a bit quieter this year. Mainly thanks to not being able to get the risk/reward mix right.
The interesting thing about reality TV shows is that there are no rules or models that you can apply to the market. The unexpected can and will happen, often. Therefore I am always looking for outliers, things that are seem certain or very un-certain but that any producer or editor can catapult …
Full tilt poker was a Ponzi scheme
I’ve been following this story for a while and listening to the rumours but now US authorities have come out and mentioned the P word.
“US authorities have accused the owners of online gambling site Full Tilt Poker of operating a huge Ponzi scheme that defrauded players out of $440m (£289m).”
Full story: –
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14997069
A sea of red
Fortunately this doesn’t reflect my betting exchange activity, tepid though it is this week. The title refers to the chaos in financial markets. As a lot of your know I am heavily invested in financials and it’s part of my grander plan to eventually sit on my bottom each day doing nothing. I’ve been actively investing since 1990 and messing around for longer than that. It was gambling that lead me to the great casino of the lot, the stock …
Half price sale underway
When Betfair floated I got some stick for saying they were overvalued and they were not a buy. This wasn’t a statement on Betfair’s business or business model, more the price it was selling at.
I first started taking an interest in the stock market in the mid 80’s and five or so years later I started investing. One thing I learnt is that if a company IPO’s and sells some of it’s stock it will do so at the …
Eurovision
Even if you are not watching it, you should take a look at Eurovision this evening.
I’ve done well backing outsiders that shorten during the contest in the past and early voting patterns can often give you the ability to dutch a range of long odds into shorter prices. Don’t leave it too late to get out though, as winners can become apparent very quickly and will shorten fast.
My biggest ever success came from backing Lordi a few years …
Just say no
Should be change to an alternative vote system in the UK? Well, the betting market seems to give a pretty clear answer to the likely result.
Royal wedding tip
Fontwell 17:30, Current favourite to shorten even further? Why? The favourite is called ‘Royal Wedding’.
My youngest daughter is fastinated by the spectacle, my son said ‘What wedding?’. Have a great day William and Kate!
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