Category: Football trading strategies
I lost £288k in one night spread-betting
On the ‘mad bomber’ thread on the forum there has been some jocular suggestions about who could be the person being such erratic and irregular betting activity. Some have joked it could be a wealthy footballer, after reading this story suddenly that doesn’t look so far fetched!
“FORMER LIVERPOOL AND Manchester City midfielder Dietmar Hamann has revealed how he slipped into problems with drinking and gambling during his final season at Eastlands.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport
In the wrong Kompany!
There are many cases for backing or laying at 1.02. But last Sunday we had a great example of why you just wouldn’t back at such short odds.
First off lets look at the odds: –
At 1.02 you would return £2 for every £100 staked. If you laid, then the opposing situation is true; you would earn £100 for every £2 lost. At odds of 1.02 the market is telling you there is a 98% of this situation occurring. …
Shocking news
That’s what the lower league clubs will be hoping for today when they step out for the FA Cup third round today.
I quite like the FA CUP as it means more to teams. This means motivation is at a high and it is also non seeded. This means that the big guys can meet in the early rounds and knock each other out leaving some minion to an improbable appearance in the latter stages. It feels like the days …
Give your football 150% this weekend
I love those throw away phrases where people say they are going to give it 150%. Of course you can only give it 100%, or can you? Not when trading.
In a betting market the market is framed at 100%. A football team can only win, lose or draw a match. There is a 100% chance of that happening. But when trading, you are trading how volatile those odds will be and that is always over 100%, whatever sport you …
Throwing it all away
You have to feel sorry for Fulham. All they needed to do was match the result of Wisla Krakow, preferably win, to qualify. In the end it was the very last touch of the match that sent them out.
Two key mistakes cost them the match. The First OB goal was scored from a free kick and the taker of the kick very cleverly moved the ball an extra foot or two to the right of the wall. The Fulham …
0-0 Continued…
Well the two key matches I was looking at worked pretty well in the end but the other ‘deserved’ 0-0 at half time ended up 3-0 to the home team. This illustrates a key point.
With any in-play market you are hostage to what happens during the event. If you take a rigid approach to the underlying event you can’t really hope to out perform the statistics that can be modelled in the market.
In yesterdays match Joey O’Brian was …
0-0
Just position taking at half time on this Saturday’s matches and there are a plethora of 0-0’s. 11 out of the 18 matches I am looking at are that score line as I speak.
Of course, underlying those matches are very different characteristics and odds. But I can tell you that each match if you look in real detail will reveal a significant difference between each 0-0. Some are heading for few goals and some should have loads.
The two …
Incentive to score
That one word is how I would describe the next two evenings worth champions league matches. Some teams will have a big incentive to score, others to not lose and others no incentive to do anything at all.
All the above will most likely throw up some of the best opportunities you will see in-play in this quality of match. It’s a bit like the knockout stage which returns in February. Early group stages can be tepid affairs but the …
Lay the draw – automatically
Last week we backed the draw using the new automation feature in Bet Angel, this week we lay it.
Whether you use the new feature to implement something or test an idea, it’s a powerful tool to do either. Based on immediate feedback we have expanded the number of conditions you can apply to your automation which expand your capability further. Bear in mind that using the practice mode you can play around without risking any money and by using …
Carling cup lessons
Some interesting lessons from last nights Carling Cup.
First, the best bet of the night wasn’t on Man Utd or Crystal Palace but elsewhere, have a think about it. In the underlying match itself there was a in-play characteristic that really showed up Man Utd’s struggles. It made an outside bet on Palace a good option.
I have to thank an ‘expert’ for hihglighting this characteristic that I hadn’t looked at before. But rather bizarrely this academic was using it …
Man City away
I had a nose around the footy markets this evening and noted that Man City were around 2.30’s. Wasn’t completely sure that this was what I expected so checked back at recent Man City matches at these prices away from home. In fact I couldn’t find any this year but last year there were three. City won these 2-0, 4-1 and 3-1 respectively.
If we widen the net to include matches between 2.20-2.50 you capture a wider sample including City’s …
Back the draw
OK, this isn’t a strategy, it’s a demonstration. But here is a simple script that uses the new automation tool to back the draw five minutes before the start of a football match and then lays it back five minutes into the match.
You can view the video here at http//www.betangel.tv
No champions league fireworks
Not sure if it’s just me, but I’ve found the group stages of the CL this year a little dull. After my racing hiatus I sat down yesterday evening to see some exciting matches, but not a great deal of opportunity. I guessed Man Utd would be keen to win against Napoli, but didn’t bank on such a quick equaliser! I sense the last few matches in the group stages should ignite some fireworks given the way results have panned …
Too early!!!
I was out last night at a charity auction event, doing my own personal bit at this time of year.
The recession must be in full effect as I haven’t seen such low bids at such an charity auction event for some time. In an effort to get things going I was bidding on most items. I got a bit lucky at one point as I nearly ended up with a wedding dress, having started off the bidding, only to …
Poppycock
You wouldn’t think such a widely accepted charity symbol could possibly be a controversial figure, but I am sure that FIFA are determined to make it so. You would think a largely political organisation would be able to successfully brush aside any possible controversy about remembering the sacrifice people make during wars in a calm and reasoned manner before anything controversial came of it. But FIFA appear to have fowled up again on this one.
You can see the logic …
Muddled
It’s a bit difficult to disect European vs English form in the Europa league. But we have some clear clues on at least one match this evening.
Rubin Kazan play a much depleted Spurs side this evening and you would have to favour the Russian side given Harry Redknapp’s preference for player his second string in this competition. With the news that Harry will miss the match due to surgery you get the feeling that following a strategy that relies …
R&R
The Melbourne cup went pretty well and I’m looking forward to finishing off the whole carnival in style if I can. I’ve put a few other things on the back burner this week to focus on the meeting. I’m feeling too old to burn the candle at both ends and get away with it! It was interesting to note that matched bet turnover on the Melbourne cup was lower this year than last. It reached about £3.6m vs. £4.4m last …
Every action..
Requires an equal and opposite reaction… said Issac Newton.
So my attention is drawn to the clash between Aldershot and Man Utd this evening.
Man Utd should win, but the odds are discounting a bit of uncertainty, which is probably a fair reflection of the likely team and how they will play. But can Fergie risk anything less than an emphatic victory? I’m on the look out for a reaction to the stunning result on Sunday. I imagine that will …
United vs City
One of the big matches of the season is up today, the Manchester Derby. I’m really intrigued.
This is the real acid test of who is going to be in the ascendancy over the season. Both have thrown down the gauntlet with very good early season performances and matching each other stride for stride so far. So this match is the first opportunity to throw both in the mix and see what comes out of the melting pot.
You have …
Europa league
I’ve had quite a good week on the footy without really trying. That’s nice!
I am experimenting with some new pre-off stuff this week as well. Mixed results so far, but it does seem to be working, just not on the scale I need.
This evening there are loads of matches and as you may know I quite like the double bite of the cherry that is the Europa league. My attention is draw to the highest volume match of …
The champions league gulf
Just had a good look at this evenings matches you can’t help but wonder if UEFA’s coefficient is a bit cocked up. Either than or whether there really is such a massive gulf between the top teams in Europe and everybody else. I suggest the outcomes are driven by commercial incentives in reality.
Barcelona are an amazing 1.05 to beat Plzen this evening. We have Chelsea t 1.12, AC Milan 1.27 and Porto 1.30.
Several uncompetitive prices were offered out …
Manchester 0 Europe 4
Should be an interesting evening of action tonight. Man City should beat Villareal and Man Utd should beat Otgoeoifosadufnoid or whatever they are called. Both teams have no wins so far in this stage of the campaign. Some of the ‘feature’ matches are quite uncompetitive which is disappointing but there is still a lot to play for in individual ties. Some teams will fancy a potential giant killing.
I won’t be trading this evening as I will out watching some …
Mission impossible
Scotland travel to Spain this evening in an attempt to pull off the biggest shock in Euro qualification history with a win in the world champions back yard. Before we completely dismiss their chances, lets look at the some stats.
The market is pricing in a dominant Spanish performance with Spain coming out winners by at least two goals on average. In the past there have been some big wins in matches like this, but also a few shocks. Overall …
Internationals
I had my own international experiance last night when I met up with Howard Hamilton from Soccermetrics. A dedicated group of stats experts huddled in a pub in Fulham to discuss all things football related. Could have done with a quieter pub!
With so many international matches going off at once, or at best close to each other, you may consider using a generic strategy that you can automate. All this can be done in practice mode as well, …
188ft headed goal
One of the things I like about football is it’s randomness. There are predictable elements to it, but goals occur over a wide average and are difficult to pinpoint precisly. This makes it good for certain types of strategies. If you want an example of the unpredictability of goals here is a classic: –
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15145980
McClaren resigns
Further to my blog post on Saturday, Steve McClaren resigned from his post this evening: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/15145175.stm
You know what to look for!
The new manager effect
Early this week I was listening to the interview with Nottingham Forest manager Steve McClaren after watching his team get thumped 5-1. It was a depressing experience. Forest started the season at a good price for promotion but have since looked like a team trying to avoid relegation. McClaren seemed clueless to give a clear example of how he will turn their fortunes around. Should Forest sack him?
Another area of research I have done in the past is based …
Champions league
How pleasurable that we pretty much nailed the matches last night. 23 goals forecast and 23 scored. We also had the “right sort of slope” to the forecast with, generally, the higher scoring matches at the top of the curve and lower scoring ones to the right. It was a night set of results and some great matches last night.
This evening looks similar in terms of the goal tally and here are the rankings from most to least goals: …
Champions league
Tonight’s matches should generate on average around 23 goals. I’d rank most to least: –
Real Madrid vs Ajax
Man Utd vs FC Basel
B Munich vs Man City
Lyon vs Dinamo Zagreb
Otelul Galati vs Benfica
Napoli vs Villarreal
Trabzonspor vs Lille
CSKA Moscow vs Inter
I much prefer the knockout stage of the competition or the latter stages of the group stages when incentive to score is highest.
Stat of the evening for you. There is around an …
Cheaters never prosper
I saw this post on another blog recently and it shows up how statistics can actually reveal very little at all. This is obviously unintended in this case, but is a trap a lot of people fall into very often. Especially when gambling / trading.
https://www.soccerbythenumbers.com/2011/09/cheaters-never-prosper-connection.html
I first looked into the relationship with fouls and goals some time ago and the link is the attacking strength of one team over the defence of another. If your defence is under pressure …
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