Category: Football trading strategies
Going up or not?
I feel sorry for QPR fans who have just ‘won’ promotion to the premier league but could yet be scuppered by the FA hearing into irregularities. It’s another example of why value tends to exist at either extreme of the market. People discount something as certain or not far too quickly than chance would and this is where value is often found. My P&L is punctuated with big spikes where value lays or backs eventually return a big one …
Forgone conclusion?
You can’t help but think, like the rest of the community, that the two champions league semi finals are forgone conclusions. I looked at the weekend markets and curiously all teams lost, so no clues in there. But it was possible to start opposing Man Utd after it dawned to me that they may have half an eye on the semi final.
The market is discounting a win by one goal for Barcelona tonight but much depends on whether Real …
Farcelona
That was the word on the street after the sending off last night. It seems a common trait to dislike success, but you can’t escape the fact that Barcelona have proved on many occasions that they are by far the best team in the tournament and did so again last night. It’s just such a shame they have often degraded their performances with gamesmanship.
It’s also a shame that the first leg was a duplicate of the other semi final, …
Schalke vs Man Utd review
The market was predicting a low scoring affair but it was obvious, fairly early on, that the match was likely to be anything but. Man Utd’s pace seemed to surprise Schalke and plenty of chances were created.This produced the unusual effect of there being little price decay in the under 2.5 goals market.
Come half time there were plenty of shots but no goals so a back of overs was a natural step. It took a while be eventually there …
Dropa del rey
Look at this image. Police men, firemen, bus stopped, everybody rushing to aid the dire situation at hand. Looks nasty, but infact it wasn’t a pedestrian under the wheels of this bus, it was the Copa del rey! For a video of the most entertaining part of this 0-0 draw view the following: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/13155619.stm
Nothing’s impossible
That has to be the message that Harry Redknapp will send to his team this evening. But just what chance does he have?
When you can lay Real Madrid at 1.02 to qualify, so the market thinks Harry has less than a 2% chance. But memories are still fresh for me with that remarkable run Middlesbrough had in the UEFA cup a few years ago.
Spurs are priced at 3.35 for a win, the match is only priced for …
Showdown
Barcelona are priced for an easy win against Shakhtar and I can’t see beyond that. Barca will want to put this to bed comprehensively in the first leg. However, there are decent trades available for this scenario. Goals give you plenty of scope to hedge good set ups.
Last night’s legs were uncompetitive and the return legs look a formality now, which is a shame. The same can’t be said of tonights showdown at Stamford Bridge. I would have priced …
When Harry met Jose
Home wins look the order of the day for the first leg of the champions league this evening. It’s difficult to see beyond that, but as we seen already, anything is possible. When Harry last visited Madrid he got mugged, most Spurs fans will hope it doesn’t happen again on the field of play.
The pressure has to be on Real Madrid to get a result at home against Champions league novices Spurs. Spurs best chance of progressing has to …
I predict another draw
A cursory glance at the Italian football today reveals two matches were the matched bet volume is 5-6 times greater than normal and draw odds much shorter than expected. I have posted the two matches in question on the forum. I backed Brescia to win against Bologna on Saturday after picking up on activity on that match. Brescia were 2-0 up inside ten minutes, so I traded out at very short odds.
It prompted me to see what happened …
I predict a draw
Hold on, haven’t I posted that before? Has this happened before? Err… yes at the end of each Italian football season. I’m wise to it now!
Part of my preparation for the weekends football fixtures, I suck in all the matches via Bet Angel into a spreadsheet and a couple of pre-set formula’s point out areas of interest. Last night it threw up Padova vs Atalanta as ‘odd’. You can see why on the following graph. The volume of matched …
Europa success for Liverpool?
I must admit to being sceptical when ‘King Kenny’ was appointed as Liverpool manager. I felt that after many years out it would be difficult to adjust to the modern game. However, Dalgleish has had a mercurial affect on Liverpool’s confidence and at the top level of a sport that is critical. People perform with similar skill at the highest levels and confidence is a BIG factor.
Last Sunday’s defeat of Man Utd will have given them a real boost …
Tangerine time
Interesting match this evening with Blackpool up against Chelsea. It must seem a long time since Blackpool charged up the league with some notable wins against high profile opposition. Only a couple of points above the drop zone, their focus now must be on the bottom of the league, rather than the top.
I’m not ashamed to say that Blackpool was one of my favourites to get relegated this season. Nothing against Blackpool, who have been very entertaining this season, …
FA Cup
Most of this weekends ties look to have a certain amount of inevitability about them. You would expect to see most of the favourites see off the weaker teams, but I do fancy the look of Stoke vs Brighton.
It has a nice set up to it with Stoke doing ‘OK’ in the Premiership but Brighton going great guns in league one. I reckon the seagulls will really be up for this match and will have the belief they can …
Champions league
Well that was a cracking start to the champions league knock out stages!
The cat has been well and truly put amongst the pigeons with Spurs win in Milan. Harry’s steps towards legendary status are getting quite common now. Can Arsenal over turn Barcelona this evening? It would be a memorable night if they could and this match has my attention. Arsenal can’t afford to concede but must really win to have any chance in Barcelona. Barca will have no …
This evenings European football
The two key champions league matches don’t look exciting prospects from my viewpoint. Two home wins on the card and two away teams that will be trying to avoid defeat. The first leg in these cases don’t throw up many clear opportunities usually. It’s the second leg that is often more interesting given what happens in the first.
The match that has caught my eye today is the Aris vs Man City match. Man City are quite short but should …
Late winner in the Manchester derby?
Traders will be arguing among themselves about whether there will be a goal-fest on Saturday when Manchester United and Manchester City do battle. The game at Eastlands earlier in the season produced a goalless draw, which was arguably one of the worst games of the year. However, who can forget last year’s seven goal thriller when Michael Owen scored a 94th minute winner to shatter the Citizen’s hearts.
Since August Roberto Mancini’s side have built up a reputation of …
Football rich list
It is always interesting to read the Deloitte reports. They seem to highlight the significant, and growing, gap between footballs elite clubs and the rest.
Seven of the top ten clubs come from the English premiership. The top clubs even in this elite division are pulling away from the others.
https://www.deloitte.com/view/en_GB/uk/press-release/0966fd0057101210VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD.htm
But there are still a large number of structural issues in the game.
The impact of transfers
Back before the start of the season I tipped a number of teams to struggle and managers likely to leave their jobs, by and large I have been spot on. A couple of surprises, but come the end of the season I’d should be well up on the deal over the course of the season. So, how did I find these opportunities? Just one word, money!
That money makes the world go around is true and none more so in …
Pub landlady wins EU case
Venues showing live Premier League matches from foreign broadcasters are not breaking EU law, court advised.
Full story here: –
https://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/feb/03/eu-law-sports-rights
This could make a big change in the financing of the premier league.
Pool lined with gold
What a season Blackpool are having and the tactic when the tangerines are playing is really simple. If they are at large odds at home, back them.
This may sound obvious but if you want to understand the full subtly of this tactic then fire up Soccer Mystic point it to any match where a team is large odds at home and look at what happens to the projected odds in the first half.
You wouldn’t have needed to do …
Will Bent leave it late again?
Gerard Houllier will be praying that capturing Darren Bent will help Aston Villa turn a corner on what has been an incredibly disappointing season to date.
Bent left Wearside with an impressive scoring record after bagging 32 league goals in his 58 appearances – which is why Steve Bruce was so upset to see his main striker depart. Even though many football fans will recall Bent’s time at White Hart Lane as a failure, he still managed to score 25 …
Adopt Arsenal business model
If you remember this post where I was commenting on how impressed I was with Arsenal’s business model. Well it seems FIFA is as well.
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/9358589.stm
I think, for the long term future of the game, it makes sense to engage on sensible terms.
I remember when I was young. I would pay £1.50 to stand on the terraces, stuffing my face with a hot dog, getting smoke wafted in my face, BUT you really could believe that your team …
O’Neill new manager of West Ham?
BBC report O’Neill to take over at West Ham after the match today: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/w/west_ham_utd/9362709.stm
Lay West Ham to be relegated I reckon, if its true.
Late goals expected in FA Cup
Manchester United and Liverpool commence battle on Sunday afternoon in the tie of the FA Cup third round. If the match earlier in the season is anything to go by this could well be a Cup classic. From a pure betting standpoint Liverpool’s away form this season gives plenty of reason to back a home win. Roy Hodgson’s men have won only once away from Anfield in the league and have lost six of their nine games.
However, traders might …
I predict a draw (Part 3)
Can you guess the outcome of this match? In total £4.1m out of a total of £4.36m traded was on the draw. Remarkable!
I predict a draw (Part 2)
Second part of what will probably be a three part post.
The draw is now trading at a remarkable 1.42 and £2.85m of £3m on the match is on the draw! To put that into perspective only 10% of the money on the Man City vs Everton match is on the draw, a more rational number.
Question now is what sort of a draw will it be. 1-1 is usually the favoured result and that is being backed in as …
I predict a draw (Part 1)
The draw is a “underactive” area of the match odds market. Out of the three outcomes availble, the draw tends to get proportionatly little attention and volume out of the three.
So, a bit of a surprise to see the draw accounting for 96% of the volume in the match. Not only that but even more surprising to see the odds backed in from 3.00 to 1.30, before the off. The italian football market is a curious one isn’t it?…
Arsenal’s price shoots out
The draw for the first knockout stage of the Champions League has been made and of the four English clubs in the competition Arsenal have been dealt the toughest two-legged clash by drawing Barcelona.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the price for the Gunners to win the tournament immediately doubled subsequent to the draw from around 15 to 30. Traders watching the proceedings may have been able to see that Arsenal were to draw Barca, anticipate the shift and beat the hordes to …
Europa league ratings
Twelve matches and I reckon there should be around 33/34 goals. It’s tougher at this stage of the tournament as incentives to score can vary and so can the strength of teams put out. So I tend to be less confident at this stage of the tournament. The knockout phase usually brings out better motivation in players.
The three matches I’d be most likely to lean on over 2.5 goals are Stuttgart, Lille and Anderlecht.
The three matches I’d be …
Arsenal the business
If you look at the top of the premiership there is a lot of ‘buying points’ going on. Chelsea and Man City have spent a fortune buying up talent to keep hold of a top four place. Man Utd have also spent a lot, but not as prolifically as the former teams. One likely reason for this is that Man Utd are run as a business, albeit a heavily indebted one. So they can’t afford to run the business in …
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