Category: Football trading strategies
Next NUFC manager
Newcastle United FC’s sacking of Chris Hughton – apart from being one of the most stupid backroom decisions in the ludicrous world of Premier League football – opened us up to a few smart trades over the last couple of days.
The favourite usually chops and changes based on nothing more than speculation and is directly affected by what the potential new managers say in the media. Martin O’Neill was installed as the immediate favourite, then Alan Pardew quickly moved …
Lessons from Liverpool
Tonight we are in the final group stages of the champions league. These matches can throw up some odd results as some have strong incentives to win and others much less so.
Last night the market was pretty stable in the Liverpool vs Aston Villa match. Then the teamsheet came out and there was no Gerrard or Torres on it! You can see the effect this had on the price. It is always worth remembering that while football matches are …
Don’t pay till May
It was only when my favourite football club got relegated that I started playing around in the relegation and promotion markets. Since then it has become a regular stamping ground for me during the season, especially at the start or end. People seem to have this wonderful propensity to put too much emphasis on recent results or events. Either that or they carry hopes that are just clearly out of whack with reality.
So far this year I have made …
Europa league ratings
Just put these on the forum.
It looks like the football will be one of few sports going ahead today, so I may as well make the most of it. We have been very close consistently on the goals tally but this evening poses a few problems given the increased importance of some of the matches. Early goals will most likely produce more goals than forecast due to the incentive to score.
2012 all over again?
Been keeping an eye on the winner of the 2018 world cup bid market. England are shortening up quite quickly and are now favourites to win the tournament. I hope they do, or else I will be a very old man by the time the World Cup tournament eventually comes, if it does at all, to England.
It’s very reminiscent of the London 2012 Olympic bid. Paris were in the lead for ages are looked nailed on to win the …
Carling cup
I don’t do too much on the Carling Cup but if I was on tonight, then opposing big teams fielding weakened sides is probably not a terrible idea. I find it difficult to price these matches, but a bit of speculative position taking is never going to be a disaster given the incentives in these types of matches.
The outsider will tend not to drift much if at all in the first half so a back at large odds will …
Champions league ratings
An excellent result from last night when we chose to oppose Chelsea to start and got the goal forecast spot on!
I would forecast 22/23 goals this evening. I am paying a lot of attention to the Tottenham match this evening. Spurs have a big incentive to win and market seems to be pricing that in. But my contrary side is nudging me towards Spurs making hard work of it, so I am going to try and find an opportunity …
Champions league ratings
From most to least goals: –
Chelsea vs. Zilina
FC Basel vs. CFR Cluj
Ajax vs. Real Madrid
Roma vs. B Munich
Braga vs. Arsenal
Partizan Belgrade vs. Shakhtar
Auxerre vs. AC Milan
I will forecast around 20 goals this evening. Final matches in the group stages can be tricky as managers often send out weaker teams. Chelsea should beat Zilina but may be a little short at 1.17 to win, intially. It all depends what team they put out.…
International friendlies part 2
If you want evidence to back up my previous post, have a look at the following chart from Albania vs Macedonia. It would be easy to assume you could tell what was going on in this match. But this graph was actually taken at 53 mins into the match at 0-0. The match ended 0-0, go figure!
International friendlies
I can’t offer dramatic insight into these matches this evening.
They are often difficult to price and have a lot of variables that you just can’t take account of. So if you are playing in these matches I would recommend some specualtive plays opposing the obvious. When you look at the teams, the incentive to win is a bit dulled and the underlying players will probably be jumbled around and mixed up. So it’s difficult to get a real handle …
Man Utd to refinance
News story this morning about how the Glazer’s have given notice on their money borrowed from hedge funds.
Read more about the story here: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/m/man_utd/9192771.stm
It’s interesting because the interest payments on the debt have been putting a huge strain on Man Utd’s ability to spend money. A case in point in the following sentence: –
“Earlier this year the rate rose to 16.25%”
I’m aware that raising finance in the current market is tough and rates can be …
Posthumous Paul
I am sure you have heard of Paul the Octopus by now and his recent death. I think along with the Vuvuzela this was one of the things the World Cup will be remembered for. More than the football. But, putting aside the well acceptable cognitive and predictive abilities of Octopus vulgaris, just how clever is Paul?
Here is an excellent post that I missed first time around but found in my recent google search of our departed deity.…
Zenyatta – History not made
A real disappointment to see Zenyatta not make history this evening. But an odd ride by the jockey who was trailing by some distance for most of the race and only produced Zenyatta on the last bend. While I can’t claim to be a jockey or understand racing that well, with such a huge prize on offer, it seems odd to have ridden the race like that.
Pretty liberal use of the whip late on as well as it was …
Football’s turn for an ouch!
Bolton score against Spurs, so you would expect the odds to move a bit. However, you wouldn’t expect Spurs to get backed into 1.59; but that’s what happened! I suspect somebody sorted the odds in the wrong order or just had the wrong selection up some how and back heavily on the goal.
Bolton won 4-2 so no get out of jail card was served on this occasion. £77,809 was matched at 1.59.
Europa league ratings
Tonights ratings from most to least goals: –
Most point to overs tonight and I would forecast 64 goals this evening.
PSV v Debrecen
Sevilla v Karpaty
OB v Young Boys
Porto v Besiktas
Leverkusen v Aris Thes.
Juventus v Red Bull Salzburg
Gent v Sp Lisbon
Lausanne v Sparta Prague
Dinamo Kiev v Az Alkmaar
Lech Poznan v Man City
Rosenborg v Atl Madrid
Rapid Vienna v CSKA Sofia
Hajduk Split v Zenit St Petersburg
Getafe v Stuttgart
BATE …
Champions league ratings
This evenings matches are much tighter and difficult to read. Shakhtar / Arsenal for example, if Arsenal were at home much easier. Most matches look pretty even to be honest, apart from the obvious win for Chelsea. For tonight I would forecast 21/22 goals in total.
If you look back through the blog at recent ratings, you will see we have been very close a lot of time and generally nail the lowest scoring match. The more matches there are …
Champions league ratings
Most goals to least: –
FC Copenhagen vs Barcelona
Valencia vs Rangers
Tottenham vs Inter
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Schalke
Benfica vs Lyon
Bursaspor vs Man Utd
Rubin Kazan vs Panathinaikos
A total of 18/19 goals forecast for this evening.
(Sorry for the edit but I included another match by accident and didn’t cover one other)
Arsenal vs West Ham
Compiled some premier league ratings today but didn’t get time to put them up this morning.
Anyhow, top of expected list of goals was Arsenal vs West Ham at nearly 3.5 goals. Given that this match is now at 0-0 at half time, but there has been plenty of goal mouth action. I think there is a lot of value here in terms of backing an Arsenal win or laying a low goal tally. Counter arguments are that is …
Trade of the season (so far)
I mentioned in another post about the Portsmouth saga and it turns out I was correct in my interpretation. This turned out to be the trade of the season so far. Portsmouth relegation markets have been a nice earner in the last couple of years!! I’ll have to wait till May to get paid out but I can now green out and look for the next opportunity.
Pompey likely to close down
Portsmouth say they are likely to fold after talks with former owner and key creditor Sacha Gaydamak broke down. Full story here: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/p/portsmouth/9120108.stm
Odds on Betfair for relegation have plunged from 11’s to heavy odds on. In settlement terms Betfair count going out of business as relegation, hence the change in odds. I suspect this could be a wake up call from the administrator to the only creditor holding up the process. Lets wait and see….
Rooney signs five-year deal with…
What a saga and seemingly for nothing, Rooney has signed for…… Man Utd. Was this just one big bluff? It will be interesting to understand what exactly happened here.
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/m/man_utd/9118602.stm
Europa league ratings
Great night of Champions league football last night and an evening that pretty much went as expected. We came out with 20 goals versus the 23 I forecast.
The Europa league is much more open and I reckon there could be as many as 62 goals this evening. With the Europa league spilt across two start times this presents quite a few opportunities and I am sure a few quality positions will occur this evening. I expect there to be …
Champions league ratings
A successful night last night. The ratings plumped for 46 goals in all matches last night, including the champions league, and the matches delivered 43. For the champions league I was looking for 23 goals and got 25. The matches pretty much turned out as expected, though Basel’s win at Roma wasn’t on the radar. I reckon there will be around 23 goals tonight. Bear in mind there could be more or less but over the long term we will …
Champions league ratings
Here is my assessment of this evenings matches. This evenings matches are not that inspiring to be honest, so I am looking for some clear cut positions on what will probably be a quiet night for me. You can see from the ratings that the Chelsea match clearly stands out from this evenings offerings.
Least goals to most: –
Spartak Moscow v Chelsea
Braga v Partizan Belgrade
Ajax v Auxerre
Real Madrid v AC Milan
Arsenal v Shakhtar
Marseille v …
Merseyside Derby
How tantalising is this match!
I’m not sure if I have seen a better set up for this Derby in all my years of following football. Passions will be high and both teams will be desperate for a win. Neither team can really afford to lose, but recent stats favour the home team. Everton have won 9/13 home fixtures while Liverpool have won just 1/12 away fixtures. Given various circumstances I suspect this will be a draw. This is much …
Stunning Scottish goal
Currently preparing for this evenings slew of International matches and reviewed what little action there was last night. This included a stunning goal by the Scottish under 21 team against Iceland. Have a look at this: –
Liverpool could face points deduction
Liverpool need to agree a sale by the 15th October or else they could be put into administration. This is significant if you remember my post last year about a similar situation with premiership club Portsmouth. Full story here: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/l/liverpool/9074311.stm
TV rights to do a Bosman?
An important case taking place this week in the European courts of justice. If successful the case could led to a deterioration of the money coming into UK football. I suspect there will be many battles to follow if the ruling goes against the premier league.
You can’t help but feel sympathy for people in one territory who are forced to pay much higher costs just because of a line drawn on a map. Given the mobility of information in …
Predicting a draw
Before I start, my ratings on the champions league this week were almost spot on. Thanks to the standard deviation of these things, its quite rare to hit the nail on the head. But the large number of matches did help quite a bit in hitting the bullseye this week. So it’s been an excellent week on the footy, I’ve got some money to give back now!
I was interested to see some discussion on predicting a draw bumping around …
European football ratings
I’ve often posted up ratings so thought I would explain something about them. My ratings come for many years of research and are designed to shape the way I will participate in a match. People who have attended talks I have done about football, would probably get most value from them to be honest. Over time I’ve managed to get ratings accurate to a fraction of a percent over the course of a season. But it’s important to understand that, …
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