Category: Football trading strategies
Spain will win
While browsing the other night I found this really interesting peice: –
https://kn.theiet.org/magazine/issues/1008/predicting-football-1008.cfm
It’s quite rare to find some decent stuff on the Internet. It’s amazing how many experts are out there, despite there actually being very few people who can claim to be true experts. My definition, somebody who is willing to back up their rhetoric with hard cash!
Anyhow, this is an interesting peice and would have made an even better read before the world cup!
Liverpool loan deal falls through
These are troubling times for Liverpool….
Liverpool Football Club’s financial turmoil took another turn for the worse after it was reported that the asset management and financial services company Blackstone Group had backed out of a deal with Liverpool co-owner Tom Hicks.
It was widely reported earlier in the week that GSO Capital Partners, a subsidiary of Blackstone, was close to finalising a two-year US$437 million loan with the Liverpool owner, which would’ve allowed Hicks to repay US$370 million owed …
Too hard
There are many thousands of markets that will come under your eyes each year. So which ones should you do? The hard ones or the easy ones. Not a difficult question is it? So why do so many people pick situations that are likely to fall into the too hard category? I’ll explain on another post, but before that, let me explain how I approach each opportunity.
When I approach a market, I will label it easy, not sure or …
Busy, busy, busy..
With the end of the turf evening racing you would think things would have quietened up a bit. But no, first the US Open Tennis and then this week loads and loads of football. I’m expecting this month to be a little quieter than late, but I did surprise myself last week with my second biggest one day total of the year.
Both the Champions league and Europa league are quite nice markets to get involved in. Plenty of different …
Underrated strategy
I covered the ‘lay the field’ strategy in some depth in racing ahead magazine a couple of months or so ago, it’s an easy strategy that works well and has been popular amongst exchange users for years. On Bet Angel you just need to set the odds, a value and click to lay the field.
To make it work, all you need to do is look for a market with a great deal of uncertainty about it. One market that …
Conclusions from a busy weekend
Blackpool got off to a flyer but are still my favourites for a return to the Championship. No spending power, no ground, no way to attract premiership talent. I think 1.20 was skinny and difficult to find value for relegation but if the price drifts a bit it will be more interesting. I remember, eons ago, Millwall getting off to a flyer in the old division one and they topped the table for a while but were still relegated. I …
Are England Hungary enough?
After that rather forgettable world cup campaign do England have enough enthusiasm to munch through some goals against Hungary?
Some new blood is expected to be on the pitch this evening but I can’t muster much enthusiasm for the match. From a betting and trading perspective I don’t like friendlies as it’s difficult to really establish what the true price should be. That makes recommending a really viable and worthwhile strategy incredibly tough. I struggle to participate in things I …
First trade of the premiership season
It’s not often that the first decent trade of the season occurs before the season has started, but have a look at the odds on the Aston Villa’s first match of the season against West Ham.
With a lack of funds available for transfers it was quite likely O’Neill may get upset, though I am not sure many anticipated his departure. If you read the August edition of Gambling magazine you will see I hinted at clubs where this could …
Where will your team finish?
The new football season is underway in the UK and the start carries the hopes of millions of football fans up and down the country.
I’ve studied many facets of the football market to try and understand what was the best way to forecast promotion / relegation and performance over the course of the a year. In the end I found a simple explanation and forecasting tool that could proved to be pretty accurate giving an 80-90% correlation over a …
The world cup effect?
We noticed recently that the racing markets have picked up a bit recently. So I thought I would look to see if volume had been affected by Wimbledon and the World Cup. I picked a day when England were playing and looked to see if volumes had dropped.
You can see the gap on the graph, but this was mainly caused by the first race not reaching the same volume as the last race, last year. If you adjust the …
Opportunities
Opportunities are everywhere if you keep your eyes open. I feel I should always be constantly prodding the market to see if I can find new ones. Wimbledon this week has thrown up many, many opportunities but the pleasing thing is that I have found loads of new ones.
When the Isner/Mahut match was drawn at 59-59 I knew I had to do some work to find a way of profiting from the resumption. I’d fiddled around the edges on …
Start of season, end of season
As you are probably aware from my posts, there is nothing more I like that a football match with a strong incentive behind it. At the start of a season, form is difficult to spot early on. Though promotion and relegation isnt’ so tricky. But it’s the end of the season when things really begin to happen. With many matches classed as ‘six pointers’ for one reason or another, this time of year has always been a fertile hunting ground. …
Europa league
I am suffering from ‘man flu’ this week so it will be an early night for me.
A tricky start to Aintree left me feeling I needed an early night rather than work through the Europe league this evening, but here are some thoughts for you. This competition has provided plenty of decent opportunities this year and both ties with the English teams involved are set up nicely. Given Fulham’s performances so far in the competition you really feel the …
FA Cup value?
In the absence of horse racing today I’ve taken a look at the FA Cup fixtures this afternoon. Subject to team sheets there appears to be a lot of potential value in the Reading vs. Liverpool fixture this afternoon. I’ve explained my full rationale on the forum.
Of course, just seeing value doesn’t mean the result will come in. But over time hunting for value is always a good strategy. If the weather persists in being so cold, I’ll …
Lack of draws hit Ladbrokes
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Ladbrokes reported 15% lower revenues. They blamed poor margins on horse racing and “exceptionally low” margins on football bets, due to the low number of Premier League draws. In the first 66 games in the Premier League season, only been four draws, just 6% of the total. This compares with the five-year average of 25%.
Ladbrokes are looking to cut their near on £1bn in debt by raising £275m from shareholders, cutting …
Football is back
Happiness and sadness at the start of the new football season. Happy because there are suddenly more opportunties, but sad because it means the end of the summer racing is near.
I like racing a lot, simply because you get loads of it very quickly and you can dip in and out of it. A race every ten minutes from 2-9pm is just perfect, when the card thins out, it is less enjoyable. With racing you also know quickly if …
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