Category: Football trading strategies
Das erste Halbfinale
I couldn’t talk about the Rio 2014 semi finals without paying homage to Germany’s remarkable record. Forget all the England coaches we have had in the past, why don’t we get a German in charge?
Die BBC hat eine schone Zusammenfassung: –
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/28202397
Der letzte “normale” Arbeit, die ich gemeint hatte, arbeitete ich für drei Jahre in Deutschland. So habe ich ein bisschen Deutsch in mir.
Onto the match however. It’s, not surprisingly, being priced as a tight affair with …
Neymar out Germany in
It’s interesting to reflect on my post yesterday when I indicated that backing the winner of the first quarter final may prove fruitful ahead of the second match.
As it turned out there was another reason why this may be the case, but it came from an unexpected source. With Neymar now out of the world cup, Brazil’s chances have been re-assessed. After touching 2.90 they have drifted back to 3.80 and the Germans are into 3.45 from 3.80 …
World Cup Quarter finals
What have we learnt so far from the tournament?
Well Brazil are still favourites and Argentina and still second favourites. Germany has moved up a place thanks to the elimination of Spain.
At the start of the tournament the top 16 made up 99.1% of the book. The remaining teams now make up 99.9%, that’s not surprising considering the only remaining bottom half team are the ‘whipping boys’ Costa Rica. It’s amazing to think that Costa Rica were 1000 to …
Betfair exhibit sense of humour
Just took this screen shot to use at the course I’m presenting on Tuesday. Take a look at the top left of the screen!
The (cold hard cash) winners so far in the World Cup
OK we know who’s through and who is out, but how has that translated into a profitable strategy so far in the World Cup?
Listed below are the returns to £10 stakes on each team that has qualified for the knock-out part of the tournament. Of course, the best bet of the tournament again was to lay England to do anything reasonably useful. But in reality, we should have all been on Costa Rica instead. But the returns here show …
Bournemouth Bonus
News today that Southampton are having a summer sale and have raided the silver in the cupboard to let another two players leave. Though it was to be said, for good money.
Players come and go and one season doesn’t make a star. But Lallana has been with Saints for ages and is worthy of a rating. Lambert deserves to join him at Liverpool and is getting on a bit, but well respected.
Practical upshot of this news: –
(1) …
Pre match volume at the World Cup
Just cut some data on the pre-match volume at the world cup and thought I would share it with you.
The chart is looking at what percentage of volume arrives when, represented as a percentage. So all matches ‘end’ with 100% of volume at the start of the match. Y axis is percentage, X axis time in minutes before the start of the match.
You can see both graphs are pretty similar but there is a lot more money earlier …
Pre match trading at the World Cup
You could be forgiven for thinking that trading on football is all about somehow anticipating something that’s going to happen in play. But if you follow my tweets you will see I’ve been banging some decent totals before the off.
I explained this in a previous post, but it’s worth noting again that if you are prepared to put the effort in and have a bit of patience, it’s perfectly possible to trade before the off successfully. I’ll be …
Profiting from Lay the draw – before the off!
A curious episode in the annals of sports trading this week. No, not another England fail at a major tournament but an opportunity to profit, with a bit of foresight.
With Italy due to play Costa Rica and hold England hopes alive I was browsing the various scenarios in a similar manner to the way I did at the end of the EPL season.
I posted some comments on the forum where I was looking at the prospect of …
World Cup Winners – Trading returns so far
In summary the big gainers are Germany& the Netherlands. Big losers Spain and to an extent Portugal & Uruguay. But the latter two never had short odds to start. Here is the full overview though. Returns to £10 stakes: –
Postive – Germany – Started at 8 now at 5.8 – Returns £3.79
Postive – Netherlands – Started at 46 now at 14 – Returns £22.86
Postive – France – Started at 23 now at 19 – Returns £2.11
Postive …
Trading World Cup football
What an exciting start to the world cup so far! I was discounting a drab, dull and tight affair; but it’s not been too bad to be honest and the Spain / Netherlands match was amazing. What a special goal from Van Persie. Big winner from that match may actually turn out to be Man Utd I suspect!
I’m easing myself into the tournament from a trading perspective. After all it’s been four years since the last one. You also …
Champions League Final stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Real Madrid will look to claim the elusive ‘Decima’ on Saturday night when they face city rivals Atletico in Lisbon. Xabi Alonso is suspended for Real with Asier Illarramendi expected to deputise and Isco on standby to play if Karim Benzema or Cristiano Ronaldo are not fit to start. Atletico, meanwhile, have …
FA Cup Fi-nil, Some interesting statistics
So the FA Cup final is upon us and, rather predictably, the final has delivered us two premiership teams. But what will the match deliver, is that going to be as predictable as well? I’ve delved back over a number of years to see if I can unlock some prevailing trends.
At first hand you can see that the final looks uncompetitive, Arsenal are heavy favourites to lift the cup. But as history has shown us, the FA Cup is …
Weekend Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Newcastle v Cardiff
- 8 of Newcastle’s last 10 home games against bottom-six teams have had at least 3 goals
- Newcastle have lost 5 of their last 8 home matches against bottom-six teams
- Cardiff have drawn the first half in 9 of their last 16 away matches
Stoke v Fulham
- Stoke have picked
Estimating correct score odds
In this video I discuss a simplistic approach to estimating correct score odds by deriving them from the match odds markets. You can do this automatically in Bet Angel. There are several layers and depths you can get to with pricing models and this is a fairly simple ‘top level’ model that is easy to understand but is not particularly refined.
For clarity I’ve also included a market where this model is not appropriate and where you should use a …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League: Liverpool v Chelsea
Liverpool have won 11 consecutive matches to take a commanding lead in the title race. With Chelsea’s chances having been all but finished last weekend with defeat to Sunderland they are now expected to rest several players ahead of next week’s Champions League second leg.
However, Chelsea’s …
Backing Liverpool
Hindsight is a wonderful thing isn’t in. But Liverpool are now into 1.19 for the title, but a controversial title awaits perhaps?
After their 0-0 draw with Athletico this week in the champions league, Chelsea are preparing for the real prospect of another champions league final. But this it seemingly going to have an effect on the title race also.
Mourinho has threatened to field a much weakened team against Liverpool, effectively handing them the title. Liverpool’s price has shortened …
Title decider
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
No two ways about it this is the match that will most likely decide where the title will go. If City drop two points then it’s Liverpool’s to lose. If City win then Liverpool will find it very hard to make up ground. Should be a cracking match. I’m going to give …
Betfair re-launch in Italy (Sort of)
Betfair trumpeted the launch of the Italian exchange this morning. But they were the only ones celebrating as the markets in Italy resembled something of a ghost town and liquidity a piece of tumble weed blowing through it. A stark comparison to the betfair.com markets (see below).
Legislation permits that the exchange only be populated with Italian customers. So Betfair have closed all betfair.com accounts and moved them them to the ‘ringfenced’ Italian exchange. But I’d imagine most large …
Trading the Premier League title run-in
With West Ham vs Liverpool on the agenda this afternoon I thought I would have a close look at the premier leagues remaining matches and how they will affect the run in for the title. View the video to see how I’m looking to do this.
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Aston Villa v Fulham
- Aston Villa have just the 18th best home record this season – last term they had the 17th best
- Since 2008/09, 8 of the 9 meetings between these sides have had fewer than 3 goals
- Fulham have lost the 2nd half in 10 of their
Paris St-G vs Mourinho
Some clever mind games going on this week by the Chelsea manager in preparation for this match. From a market perspective it’s basically two evenly matched teams with Paris having home advantage. My guess is that Chelsea will be keen to keen the goal tally against as low as possible so I suspect a defensive approach given their ‘lack of a striker’.
The stats reflect what I’ve said above, so a difficult call really.
Paris St-G vs. Chelsea
We looked …
Mission impossible for Man Utd?
An intriguing tie at Old Trafford and one that Man Utd can’t afford to lose. You would expect that United must win by two to stand any chance of qualifying with the return leg still to come. ‘Dir Roten’ will be well aware of that and I suspect they will be happy to sit back and wait for Utd to make a mistake at first. An away goal would make it incredibly hard for United to qualify so I reckon …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Crystal Palace v Chelsea
- Palace have picked up just 1 point from 14 games against the top 9 this season and they’ve scored just 2 goals in the process
- 9 of Palace’s last 11 home matches have had fewer than 3 goals
- 7 of Chelsea’s last 9 wins have been by at
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Cardiff City v Liverpool
- Since 2010/11 Liverpool have lost 7 of their 10 trips to promoted teams while 8 have had at least 3 goals
- 13 of Liverpool’s last 16 away matches have had at least 3 goals, with 10 having 4 or more
- Liverpool have scored before half-time in an incredible
Man Utd vs. Olympiakos
Do or die for Man Utd and to a certain extent David Moyes tonight. Looking forward to the match.
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 70 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 65.4% chance of a Man Utd win, a 13.9% chance of a Olympiakos win and a 21.3% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 65.7% chance of a …
Chelsea vs. Galatasaaraearaery
Chelsea vs. Galatasaray
Really looking forward to the match this evening!
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 121 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 70.9% chance of a Chelsea win, a 10.2% chance of a Galatasaray win and a 19.6% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 80.2% chance of a home win, a 8.3% chance of a away win …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Hull v Man City
- Hull have lost 4 of 6 home matches this season against the current top nine
- Hull have been level at half-time in 7 of their last 9 home matches
- Man City have won 4 of their last 5 away matches whilst scoring 14 times
- 10 of Man City’s
Sunday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Serie A: Napoli v Roma (Sun, 19:45)
Napoli have slipped six points behind Roma following a run of just two wins in their last seven games. In the same time Roma have conceded just once and won five times. However, Roma’s form on the road is less impressive as they’ve scored just …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Fulham v Chelsea:
- Fulham have lost their last six home games against top-six team including 4 defeats without scoring
- 6 of Chelsea’s last 8 wins have come to nil, including 3 1-0 scores
- This fixture has had just 25 goals in the last 12 seasons with 8 of 12 matches having
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