Category: Football trading strategies
Galatasaray 2-0 Chelsea?
Wouldn’t it be ironic if this was the scoreline this evening after all other English teams lost by the same amount. Or are Chelsea a dark horse? Looking forward to seeing the legend that is Drobga this evening. Who can forget his last campaign for Chelsea?
Here are match results from matches that have had very similar set ups in the past: –
Draw – 2007 – Newcastle vs Arsenal – Result – 0-0
Draw – 2008 – Tottenham vs …
Similar matches
When looking at matches like this evening’s champions league, I’ll often look at matches that had similar characteristics in the past. You would have seen me post up information on previous posts. For example, in the Man Utd match this evening my stats threw up the following: –
The market is forecasting 2.39 goals. Historically there have been 2.18 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38. Historically 33.3% …
Saturday Soccer stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Chelsea v Everton:
- Everton have scored in each of their last 9 matches against Chelsea
- Chelsea have recorded 7 2-1 wins in their last 21 home matches including 4 in their last 7 hosting top-half teams
- Everton have kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 matches
West Brom v …
Another way to trade a football match
In a recent blog post I talked about how team news can affect the price of matches before the off. Here is the link: –
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2014/01/08/trading-team-news-football-matches/
But today generated a different sort of opportunity due to the unfortunate events in the Urkraine.
Due to uncertainty about the security issues of playing the Ukraine, Dynamo Kiev vs Valencia was moved from Ukraine to Cyprus. No such fears appear to be blighting the Spurs match.
If you are at home the …
Champions League – City vs Barca – Curious
Ahhh, after the disappointment of the FA Cup at the weekend we transition into something altogether different.
I like the knock out phases of this competition as it brings a real incentive to score (or not). So that adds to the dynamics of the matches. The volume bumps up as well so that means you can get stuck into the markets. The big matches out there now should engage your interest because they will be good practice for the World …
FA Cup trading so far..
A quick review of how the FA Cup has traded so far this year. Pretty much the same as prior years TBH.
In the third round Premier league teams were 96.84% of the market. Today that stands at 99.15%, I think the winner could perhaps come from the premier league this year! If you look at the movers from the third round you see a slightly clearer picture, but obviously a lot of that is down to the draw: –…
Liverpool vs Arsenal
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League: Liverpool v Arsenal (Sat, 12:45)
Arsenal, in recent seasons, have been characterised by their awful record against the league’s other top teams. In the four seasons prior to this they lost 12 and won only two of 20 away matches against other top-six finishers, while their equivalent home record of …
Betfair reduce in-play delay on football
Received an email from Betfair today that details a plan to reduce inplay delays.
Currently they put a bet placement delay in of 8 seconds when placing a bet in play on football / soccer. They are looking to reduce the delay to 5 seconds in matches this weekend. They also plan to reduce the half time bet placement delay to one second.
See the forum for more details
Man City vs Chelsea
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League: Man City v Chelsea (Mon, 20:00)
Man City turned on the style at White Hart Lane to move to the top of the table and it’s clear that Chelsea are second favourites with the bookies, but a defeat here will leave them six points adrift with a vastly inferior goal …
Pre Match football trading
In the absence of racing today I’ll be dipping into Kempton to have a look this evening, though I doubt I’ll trade it, and I’ll also be welcoming the premier league football into my arms.
Football was one of the first markets I actively traded on Betfair and I still do it today. Trading before the match starts allows me to get off to a head start on things and, if necessary, carry over the profit to play around with …
Merseyside Derby
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League: Liverpool v Everton (Tue, 20:00)
The first Merseyside derby of the season was a 3-3 thriller and with both teams still occupying positions in the top six and separated by just one point this is one of the biggest meetings between these teams in years.
Liverpool have won 10 of …
The £16m football accumlator
After a busy week I’ve been catching up on email and reading through some reports and stuff. I’m a little late but spotted this and thought I’d share it.
“Online Sportsbook has continued to show strong wagering growth, up 48% in the first two weeks of 2014. However, football results in week 2 were highly unfavourable with an unusually high number of odds-on favourites winning. Driven by the impact of this on our otherwise very attractive accumulator business, we recorded …
Sunday football previews
Chelsea v Man Utd (Sun, 16:00)
The first meeting between these teams this season was a drab nil-nil affair that is probably best forgotten. With Arsenal and Man City both hosting bottom-six teams this weekend Chelsea will need to win to stay within three points of the lead, while United know they cant afford to drop too many more points. So hopefully the significance of the game creates a bit more excitement.
Chelsea are in decent form having won their …
Arsenal shouldn’t worry over Walcott
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Theo Walcott, Forward, Arsenal
Theo Walcott’s cheery mood following Arsenal’s FA Cup victory over Tottenham was quashed when scan results on his knee injury ruled him out for the rest of the season and this year’s World Cup. England will surely suffer from his absence but Arsenal have coped well without him …
Trading team news on football matches
I’m looking at the Man City and West Ham match this evening. I see City are 1/5 on for the win! The big question I am asking myself at this moment in time is, what teams will walk onto the pitch this evening?
I trade a lot of football before the match starts. Why? Well if I do anything in-play then trading before the off gives me some leeway to what I want to do with a strategy in-play. …
Picking an FA Cup shock
Ah, the romance of the FA Cup!
The romance bit comes from a non league team coming up against a major club and beating them. But the evidence for regular giant killings is a little thin on the ground.
Last year of course Wigan ensured the demise of Mancini’s tenure at Man City by winning the Cup. In 2012, for the first time since 1994, a minor team made the fifth round. In the prior year a league two team …
Automating your football trading
Bet Angel contains a very powerful automation tools. In this article we look at how this can help automate a simple strategy on football.
Automation is as simple or complex as you wish. To help you we plan to create a library of simple automation files that you can download and build upon.
For this automation strategy we will look at backing or laying the draw. We want to automatically place a bet just before kick-off then exit the trade …
Variability of football, the tipsters nightmare
Here is a very easy puzzle for you to solve. Your friend asks you to forecast the result of a football match.
The scenario is quite simple: –
Team A Form
Hasn’t lost at home this year and is unbeaten run to 10 games. They have only conceded 16 goals in 17 games. They have lost just two of their last 36 home games (W24 D10 L2) and are 4th in the league.
Team B Form
Has no wins in …
Sunday match previews
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
[Peter] I’ll be at St Marys watching Southampton vs Spurs so can’t comment on that match!
Swansea v Everton (Sun 16:00)
Swansea are unbeaten in five home games but Everton have been beaten just once all season – and everyone loses at the Etihad these days. Roberto Martinez has got the Toffees …
Player absence and team performance in football
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
PLAYER ANALYSIS
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a three significant players who will be missing this weekend and see what their absence might mean. N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
[Peter – Based upon my research over many …
Sunday match previews
These statistics are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
In the first fixture, I will forever remember the cat trick at Anfield which livened up a rather dull 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture that year.
Spurs v Liverpool (Sun 16:00)
While Liverpool have certainly been the more eye-catching of these two teams this season there is just three points between …
Man City vs Arsenal stats.
I’m looking forward to this clash as it will be a decent test of both teams and will hopefully lay down a market for the remainder of the season. These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. Also check out Betdaq where the early kick off matches are commission free! BetdaqAngel is fully feature free trading software for Betdaq.
Man …
Europa league goal ratings
Goal ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
Red Bull Salzburg vs. Esbjerg – 124%
Tottenham vs. Anzhi Makhachkala – 124%
Dinamo Kiev vs. Rapid Vienna – 116%
Valencia vs. Kuban Krasnodar – 110%
Standard vs. Elfsborg – 110%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. APOEL – 110%
Thun vs. Genk – 108%
PAOK vs. Az Alkmaar – 108%
Betis vs. Rijeka – 108%
Lazio vs. Trabzonspor – 106%
Freiburg vs. Sevilla …
Champions league goal ratings – Wednesday
Goal ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
Barcelona vs. Celtic – 138%
Chelsea vs. Steaua Bucharest – 128%
Marseille vs. Dortmund – 124%
Napoli vs. Arsenal – 118%
Schalke vs. FC Basel – 118%
Austria Vienna vs. Zenit St Petersburg – 112%
AC Milan vs. Ajax – 110%
Atl Madrid vs. Porto – 102%
I have priced in 25 goals this evening.
If you are interested in how …
Champions league ratings
Goal ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
B Munich vs. Man City – 130%
FC Copenhagen vs. Real Madrid – 128%
Sociedad vs. Leverkusen – 118%
Olympiakos vs. Anderlecht – 116%
Galatasaray vs. Juventus – 112%
Man Utd vs. Shakhtar – 110%
Benfica vs. Paris St-G – 108%
Plzen vs. CSKA Moscow – 106%
I have priced in 24 goals this evening.
Sunday match previews
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Please check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Sunday Match Previews
Fulham v Aston Villa (Sun 13:30)
Fulham maintained their record of scoring in every home game this season on Wednesday. Unfortunately, two late goals consigned them to a ninth defeat in 11 home games. At the same time, Aston Villa were winning at Southampton despite having just 23% of the …
Weekend player analysis
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Please check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Player analysis
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a three significant players who will be missing this weekend and see what their absence might mean.
N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
West Brom v Norwich
Anthony Pilkington, Midfielder, Norwich
Anthony Pilkington …
How did the world cup draw affect your teams chance?
Money talks and as the World Cup draw was made, the market moved as people discounted a favorable or unfavorable draws. But for whom and how much?
The big winners were Argentina as the market shifted nearly 4% in their favour. Was England’s draw so bad? They slipped from 28 to 30 in decimal odds, only an decline of 0.25% in implied probability terms. They had little change, they have slightly less. Spain suffered the most as their chance of …
Do teams perform better or worse after European games?
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs.
European hangovers?
At the start of last season we analysed the impact of European games on teams’ following domestic matches. What we found was that backing teams playing at home after an away trip in Europe was a potentially profitable strategy.
When removing games where teams faced a knock-out game in Europe for their next match (i.e. their domestic match was sandwiched between two European knockout matches) …
The best from the worst
Looked at the football last night to see if there was anything worth trading, but there was little on. I tend not to mess around in cup matches as they are less predictable than normal matches and subject to some funny activity now and again. Last night’s match between Fulham and Sheffield Utd looked really uninspiring fodder.
And so it proved as Fulham and Sheffield Utd slogged out a drab 0-0 draw. I was glad I missed it to be …