Category: Football trading strategies
Europa league goal ratings
I like the Europa league, lots of matches split into two groupings. Though the liquidity can be a little light on certain matches. I like the range of matches though that are variable and often give you a chance to average out a strategy.
Tonight I’ll be keeping an eye on Spurs to see how they perform after there thrashing at the weekend. You would be surprised what clues you can pick up from watching how teams interact, perform and …
Champions league goal ratings
Goals ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
Real Madrid vs. Galatasaray – 136%
Man City vs. Plzen – 132%
Juventus vs. FC Copenhagen – 128%
Paris St-G vs. Olympiakos – 114%
CSKA Moscow vs. B Munich – 114%
Shakhtar vs. Sociedad – 110%
Leverkusen vs. Man Utd – 102%
Anderlecht vs. Benfica – 98%
I have priced in 24 goals this evening.
Champions league goal ratings
Goal ratings for this evening, projected variance to long term average: –
Porto vs. Austria Vienna – 125%
Dortmund vs. Napoli – 123%
Arsenal vs. Marseille – 122%
Ajax vs. Barcelona – 115%
Steaua Bucharest vs. Schalke – 104%
FC Basel vs. Chelsea – 101%
Zenit St Petersburg vs. Atl Madrid – 100%
Celtic vs. AC Milan – 95%
I’ve priced in 23 goals.
What England need to do….
First off, while the England vs. Germany match will be must watch viewing for both countries this evening, personally I think the Sweden vs. Portugal match will be a cracker and is set up nicely for some drama and great potential trading opportunities. Ibrahimovic or Ronaldo won’t be going to Rio, who will it be?
Meantime back at Wembley England have a chance to show they are ready for Rio.
I don’t think you can read too much into the …
Why friendlies can be a trading minefield
I wont be actively trading the international friendlies this evening. There are many things I can predict about how a football match will pan out, but doing this on friendlies is much harder and a bit more random. Basically I don’t know if I have an edge.
Friendlies, especially like those tonight, are for managers to try a few things out. Shove some fresh talent onto the pitch and see how they perform. Change shape, try a few tactics and …
Europa league ratings – 20:05 kick offs
I’ve priced in 33 goals in this batch of matches. Ranked from most goals to least, expected variation to long term average.
Tottenham vs. Sheriff Tiraspol – 138%
Az Alkmaar vs. Shakhter Karagandy – 123%
Sevilla vs. Slovan Liberec – 118%
Lazio vs. Apollon L. – 112%
Rapid Vienna vs. Genk – 106%
Estoril vs. Freiburg – 105%
Thun vs. Dinamo Kiev – 101%
Legia Warsaw vs. Trabzonspor – 97%
Maccabi Haifa vs. PAOK – 97%
Rijeka vs. Lyon – …
Champions league ratings for Wednesday
Excluding the early kick off.
Barcelona vs. AC Milan – 131%
Atl Madrid vs. Austria Vienna – 130%
Dortmund vs. Arsenal – 125%
Chelsea vs. Schalke – 110%
Napoli vs. Marseille – 109%
FC Basel vs. Steaua Bucharest – 108%
Ajax vs. Celtic – 103%
I’ve priced in 21 goals this evening.
Champions league ratings for Tuesday
Expected variation to average of goals scored. Most goals to least.
Plzen vs. B Munich – 137%
Paris St-G vs. Anderlecht – 129%
Man City vs. CSKA Moscow – 128%
Juventus vs. Real Madrid – 118%
Shakhtar vs. Leverkusen – 114%
FC Copenhagen vs. Galatasaray – 107%
Sociedad vs. Man Utd – 102%
Olympiakos vs. Benfica – 93%
I’m penciling in around 24 goals this evening.
Champions league goal ratings
Champions league ratings for this evening, forecast variation to long term average. Basically are we expecting more or less goals than average. Looks like a nice for overs, I’ve shared out 22 goals this evening.
Most to least goals: –
- Arsenal Vs. Dortmund – 118%
- Austria Vienna Vs. Atl Madrid – 110%
- Schalke Vs. Chelsea – 108%
- AC Milan Vs. Barcelona – 108%
- Steaua Bucharest Vs. FC Basel – 106%
- Porto Vs. Zenit St Petersburg – 101%
- Celtic Vs. Ajax
Home advantage for Poland
England at at short odds to win and get to Rio, I hope they do. I was too young to remember the legendary 1973 performance, but it seems everybody is drawing parallels with that. The simple fact is that life is best understood backwards but you have to live it forwards, so most forecasters will not be examining that chapter of England’s history and the price reflects that.
England also failed to qualify for the 1978 finals and I do …
England Expects – Another draw?
I’ll be watching but not trading tonight for the world cup qualifiers. As a rule of thumb I can’t trade something when I am emotionally attached to it. Tonight I’ll shall no doubt be shouting, moaning, directing and heading the ball at various points. I think I’d class that as an emotional attachment!
I’ll still do some stuff before the off and will probably carry that in play, but it terms of ‘hard core’ trading that can take a back …
Early kick off – Match preview
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post.
Man City v Everton
While David Moyes’ first Manchester derby at The Etihad turned into a nightmare, his Everton team always had an excellent record here. With Roberto Martinez having good memories of playing City from last season’s FA Cup final, can The Toffees maintain their unbeaten start?
Everton are the only unbeaten side in the Premier League but City have comfortably won all three of …
Goals, Goals, Goals….
If you search the blog for ‘Europa league ratings’ you should find a bundle of comments on previous Europe leagues . I don’t tend to post them much now as I never really got much feedback. I’m happy to post them regularly again if people want, I use them and it should be of use to others.
Number of goals
The thing I like about the Europe league at this stage is that it allows you to aggregate risk significantly. …
Automating your football trading
For those who have not yet tried the advanced automation feature within Bet Angel, football offers several opportunities to try this out. If you are unfamiliar with any features in Bet Angel, try them out in practice mode.
In this example I am going to show you how to automate a simple trade on the Over/Under 2.5 market and green out for a profit. I’ll explain why this works and things to look our for.
The Over/Under 2.5 goals …
Relegation & promotion markets and over reaction
I’ve been active in the promotion and relegation market for a few years now, but this year is a good example of why.
I’m always amazed at how volatile the market can be throughout the season. This year looks like an interesting year at the top, but I hadn’t imagined just how much prices would fluctuate so early in the season. I’m mean it’s only just started and yet people are heavily discounting something that won’t happen till next May.…
What’s a Mata with Chelsea?
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs.
Spurs v Chelsea
Spurs have conceded just one goal this season to sit second in the table behind arch rivals Arsenal . However, they lost their only major test so far, in the North London derby, so if they want to prove they are genuine title contenders they will look to make full use of home advantage here against Chelsea.
Four of the last six meetings between …
Fiery Italians Produce Dirty Derbies
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post. Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.
Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.
Fiery Italians Produce Dirty …
Manchester Derby – Match preview
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post, E&OE and all that. Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information. Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.…
Will the premier league goal drought continue?
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post. Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.
Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.
ANALYSIS – WILL THE …
The affect of the international break
First in a regular series of posts from our friends over at Football Form Labs. Endorsement follows….
Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.
Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.…
Using Bet Angel to autotrade score-lines in football
Last season I knocked up a spreadsheet that did something interesting.
I didn’t realise at the time, but it turned out to be one of my more popular posts and videos. Basically it used Guardian and our spreadsheet integration to create an imaginative overview on an underlying football match.
I do this sort of stuff all the time to examine all manner of markets. Stepping back from the just the numbers and looking at another representation of the market can …
How to buy success
As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers will have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?
The defining characteristic
As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. …
Why the Rickie Lambert story is so rare
I remember being a small boy watching my local team, smoke wafting in my face, pie in hand until a crowd surge would dump it unceremoniously on the terrace! But hey, I’m showing my age.
I couldn’t help but let out a cheer when Lambert scored on his England debut as it’s a great story and it’s also something that gives people hope. When I stood on the terraces all those years ago I felt that if I tried hard …
Betdaq go commission free on football
Casually glancing through my Facebook page and up pops a post by Betdaq. Looks like their push to attract customers has extended itself from Racing into Football.
For some time now the first race of the day has been commission free and that has encouraged an increase in activity on the racing markets. Now football traders will get the chance to earn money without paying any commission.
Basically Betdaq will let you trade the the early kick off in the …
Adding multiple soccer markets using Guardian
Bet Angel has so many useful features that many of them are hidden away and not immediately obvious.
For example, did you know you can quickly add all ‘Match odds’ markets for football (soccer) games happening on a particular date in the Guardian tool? And if you only want to bet on the premiership games, these are easy to add too.
Multi market trading is in high demand and the Guardian tool within Bet Angel is a great way of …
The footy season – My approach
Now the football is about to start again, here is an insight into how I approach the whole season.
Off-season
During off season I am most active on research and new information for the next season. I gather a huge amount of data during the season and during the off season I analyse it to take ideas forward to the next season. Same story this year.
I started analysing football matches in the 80’s, so I tend to focus on …
Pre-Season Football
Not much to be read into pre season friendlies TBH. As a manager you are looking at new players, either acquired or coming up through the ranks and assessing things for the next season. Results are not paramount, injuries are and when I looked into pre-season friendlies a few years ago there seemed to be little correlation to the start of the new season.
What I do look for though is new transfers, which does give a clue to performances …
Football – And so the hard work begins…
I failed in the ballot in my attempt to get tickets for the European Champions league final at Wembley today, such is life. I thought I may slip into some hospitality somewhere, till I saw the cost! It’s funny really, because I thought going to watch the Monaco Grand Prix would cost an arm and a leg. But on researching that, it seems I can still do that cheaper than the hour journey to Wembley! So Monaco will be on …
Next Everton manager
Despite no football matches being on, there is still gold in them thar hills! The next Everton manager market is looking like providing a nice post season boost to my footy results.
Currently we have had six potential managers trading at odds of 4.00 or lower and there still seems to be a fair amount of uncertainty as to who could be the anointed one. Anybody who has been on my course should have been active on this market and …
Today’s crop of dodgy football matches
The football season is pretty much over, but the fun and games are not it seems. With a few things to be decided in Italy there is still time for some unusual odds, volume and perhaps results? I have attached an image for posterity. At 09:00 this morning the matched bet volume on Verona vs Empoli was the leading traded volume on the football for the entire day for all matches!
Novara vs Lanciano – £15k matched, £11k on the …
Connect
Connect with us on the following social media platforms.