Category: General
How to win (and lose) £45m in a few minutes
This week in 2011, we were treated to a day of spectacular proportions and this post relives that moment.
Leopardstown
It’s a busy week between Christmas and the New year and once out of the Kempton meeting, we move into a quieter period. But Leopardstown still brings us some quality and is worthy of a look as the week wears on. I’m generally less convinced by other markets but will often trade them if an opportunity presents itself.
The are …
Behind the scenes at the home of British horse racing
A few weeks ago I was fortunate to be invited to Newmarket (the birthplace and spiritual home of British horseracing) by a fellow Bet Angel forum member who is an ex-jockey that rode for Sir Mark Prescott for many years.
Newmarket itself is steeped in history and is built around horse racing with approx. 3000 horses stabled across 2500 acres. It is home to most of the UK’s top trainers. The best way to describe it would be to say …
The Bet Angel trading forum & community
As regular Bet Angel forum users will be aware last month the forum was upgraded and moved to a better, faster server. The simple reason for this – to handle the increased flow of traffic which has been steadily building for some time now.
Philosophy
We have a simple philosophy for the forum, that has helped it grow steadily over time. It’s viewed very much as a collective effort, the sum of all participants, not just Bet Angel users, and …
Betfair trading – Ten years apart
A reflective and rather long post for the bank holiday weekend.
Don’t look back in anger
I recently looked back at some stats from the start of 2007 and compared them to 2017. I’ll often compare previous periods and markets to see what I find. I’ve always archived huge amounts of data as doing so allows me to monitor my own activity, but also see how the market changes over time.
My strike rate on racing in 2007 was a …
Trading Christmas racing markets
It’s almost time to relax, but typically this can start and end sooner than you expect on racing markets.
Pre-Christmas period
The markets in the run up to Christmas day can be a bit barren. Indeed, this year, they thin out completely. We have some low-quality fodder through the week, then one Irish evening card on the 23rd and, obviously, nothing on the 24th and 25th.
It actually works well this year, as it means you can most likely take …
Bet Angel – Now ten times faster!
We are pleased to announce that a new version of Bet Angel is now available.
The upgrade is free for all trial and existing users. There is no need to re-register. To upgrade simply download the latest version, install and log in!
Download it from here: –
https://www.betangel.com/download/?product=BetAngelPro
Key new feature – Exchange price streaming
This version adds support for Betfair’s Exchange Streaming for prices and bet updates. The feature is switched off by default but is activated by ticking …
Be Prepared – Always Have a Back Up Plan
How many times have you had an open trade only for an unforeseen incident out of your control too suddenly occur resulting in you not being able to close your position and possibly leaving you staring at a hefty loss – especially if it’s an open lay position.
If this is something that your fortunate not to have experienced yet then it’s worth reading on if you want to keep it that way, for those unfortunate to have already been …
Difficult to Trump that
Well that was interesting.
It was clear for some time that this was going to be a huge market. Interestingly enough, the same guy I know that foresaw the financial crisis, also saw this development. I’m now his devout follower forever and would jump off a bridge if he told me it was appropriate 🙂
Previous markets
I started looking at this particular market back in 2004. Clinton was a democratic nominee back then as well and I’ve revisited each …
A fool and his money are soon parted….
‘A fool and his money’ It’s a classic phrase, but it always seems to ring endlessly true and never shall it be any different it seems!
I have written about this before and in particular about the now infamous Elliot Short: –
I wonder how many times I will hear about some gambling scam where people have lost enormous amounts of money? It seems that will always be the case.
It’s a real downer!
It’s a real downer to …
Derby Day!
Isn’t the Derby in June? Yes and no….
If you are in Australia, early tomorrow morning (UK Time) is Derby Day at Flemington in Victoria. This kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival and a week of top class Australian action. On Tuesday we have the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup then more top quality days on Thursday and the following Saturday. It’s a busy period full stop on the horse racing front, as we also have the …
Curtain comes Down on Rio 2016 Olympic Games
That’s it for another 4 years having been glued to my TV for last 16 days flicking from one sport to another next week I can begin to get back to some normality and trading – for the next few weeks at least!
As a big cycling fan it was great although no huge surprise to see the GB track cycling team perform so well at Rio 2016 and bring the largest haul of medals home – with the same …
Do Betfair markets reflect true opinion?
OK, for years the exchange mechanism has provided a very useful pricing mechanism. A careful aggregation of demand between people competing on a level playing field and it has provided a beautiful insight into the way free markets can work to mysteriously, accurately, price an event – in this case the prediction that something will win a sports event.
Changes
But we have been watching closely as the market has gradually decoupled from it’s long established core. What do we …
British Grand Prix
After a really successful week, I’m ducking out of trading seriously today to watch some sport and do a few other things. I can’t rule out doing something at some point, the temptation can be great, but I’ll endeavour not to do much. I may trade the Euro 2016 final pre-off.
British Grand Prix stats
The British GP is curious in that, for a non-street circuit, the average outcome is quite variable from Grid to Finish. It’s the least certain …
Good Luck to all runners today
If you are running the London marathon today then, I’m jealous! But I’d like to wish you the best of luck and hope you have a really good run.
If I can stay injury free for a few years I may try once more, but I’m getting old and decrepit; so it gets less likely each year. Nothing’s impossible though as I could always enter the wheelchair race! I was a good 1/2 marathon runner, but couldn’t transfer that form …
An intriguing prospect
It wasn’t a surprise to see Newbury abandoned yesterday or today. When I went out on my mountain bike it was tough going and getting worse. I immediately felt the meeting was under threat.
It was a surprise however to see the meeting shifted to Chelmsford City! The meeting and the course seem incompatible, but I suppose racing has saved a meeting. I usually find Newbury quite nice to trade and Chelmsford horrible. Chelmsford markets are the most erratic on …
Let’s stop exchanges going the same way as the Jitney
I’ve just been watching a TED talk and the story about the Jitney bus. It follows on with other peer to peer talks. Watch it here: –
It’s similar to a story I told about horseless carriages to an MP a few years ago. People tend to see innovations as a threat and not an opportunity. That is until such time as more liberal regime pops up and destroys them! Establised systems need not worry about cannibalising their own …
When Saturday comes…
When I first started sports trading I treated it like a 9-5 job.
I did all the usual things you would in a normal job and returned to my out of work activities after the day was over. Fairly quickly I realised that this wasn’t going to work. All the best opportunities tend to occur outside of ‘normal’ hours and therefore I had to shift my working patterns.
Shifting my workload
At first this was a little tricky, I started …
My best trade ever (so far)
Preamble
Here is a story that you should gain something from.
I spent last week in Florida at Disney world. This is linked to some meetings I did before I headed there. I was running around London with a hedge fund manager.
The reason we know each other and that so much has happened between us; is all down to few moments in a bookstore in Texas. In fact I wouldn’t have joined Betfair if I had gone through this …
Trade, text and tweet from 20,000 feet
Half term is a good opportunity for a break
So, I decided to head out of the country for half term week. It’s a good time of year to do that and relatively speaking, a low opportunity cost for me.
It’s amazing how technology has changed since I started trading on Betfair. The first time I had to head oversea’s it was pretty much impossible to get a decent internet connection, Skype didn’t exist as a widespread platform and trading …
My trading journey
February can be a bit quiet and with a lack of high profile events in some key markets can be a bit depressing. So how about some inspiration for you?
I grew up in the middle of nowhere into a family of not much. I didn’t arrive in the world with massively high expectations lets say. I left school with not much of a leg up into the world, as my favourite subject was playing sport, so I couldn’t hang …
The big short
Went and watched the big short last night. I enjoyed it.
The film
I thought they dumbed down elements a bit, but that’s to be expected to broaden the appeal. I’d imagine it will go over the heads of a few people that are not interested in financial markets, but it was entertaining and enjoyable if you are into trading in any manner.
As a traditionally comedic actor, I thought Steve Carrel’s performance was particularly good.
Like most dramatisations there …
The top 1%
Saw some headlines this morning from Oxfam about wealth distribution. The glaring headline was that the top 1% of the world ‘own’ the rest of it.
Deeper analysis though exposed the headline grabbing number as a bit of a ‘back of a fag packet’ calculation. Exposed by the fact that ‘It takes cash and assets worth $68,800 (£48,300) to get into the top 10%, and $760,000 (£533,000) to be in the 1%. That means that if you own an average …
The futility of legislation in the Internet age
Betfair recently decided (most likely strategically) to exit the Canada market. This is a downer for North American sports and despite online sports betting being banned in the US, as I have discovered on previous trips there, liquidity is alive and well. I wonder where that could be coming from? I’m half expecting a review from Betfair to announce a Sportbooks will be launched there in the near future 😉
No sooner had Betfair announced the exit, than username change …
The Pareto principle
2015 has been about the Pareto Principle for me. Though contrary to the rule, I’m going to end up on about 70-75% of the prior year but have still benefited from a big reduction in required activity. Perhaps I’ve been a little too lax?
I set out on the year to not spend as much time on markets I knew wouldn’t yield as much, so I actively chose to focus on the big opportunities. This isn’t something I’d generally recommend, …
Merry Christmas from the Bet Angel Team
As is tradition each year, we would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your interest and business in 2015.
Each year I learn more and more about the market, how it works and that knowledge makes its way into Bet Angel for your added benefit. We also have some get loads of great suggestions for our many full time users. That’s why we will continue to pioneer a path through the markets for a long time into …
Christmas week and trading (or lack thereof)
I noticed that Ayr has been abandoned today and that makes a bit of a mess of the card. So I think that’s me done till Boxing day on the racing.
It’s usually pretty quiet in the run up to Christmas day in the UK and this week is no exception. Because the holidays shift from year to year, this year Boxing day has fallen on a Saturday. That should be an interesting day! So I’m saving my gunpowder till …
Help me, help you
Over the last 15 years I’ve researched roughly a million markets, traded somewhere approaching 175,000 and recorded thousands of videos. I often record myself trading so I can look back and understand how I could do better, I’d recommend it!
The problem
It would be nice to publish a lot of those videos, unfortunately I don’t tend to have the time to do that. We keep a small team here and there are only 24 hours in a day! That’s …
OLBG trading censorship
A little while ago I saw a comment on OLBG’s site that I knew wasn’t true. So, as is my right, I made a comment to clear up any confusion. The author responded positively and kindly to my clarification and all was good. A generally positive experience, I think I’ll come back again.
Faffing about
A few months later I checked back and noticed the counter comment was gone, so I tried to log into my account and post again. …
An elegantly timed Betfair outage
Ok, so no Betfair outage is elegantly timed in reality, but as you may have noticed, I’ve been quite this week. That’s because I find myself in San Francisco at the moment. So the outage was ‘handy’ as I wasn’t going to be trading this morning, but also the ‘why’ bit of my location explains why the outage came at a good time.
Silicon Valley
I’m always interested in tech startups and of course Silicon Valley is home to an …
Surrealism
I’m having a bit of a surreal moment…
Clear thoughts
I remember clearly when I decided that I was going to try and make a go of this Betfair thing, it seemed a little crazy. Nobody really knew what I was going on about and absolutely nobody, nobody, thought that what I was doing was remotely sensible.
That was many years ago now and it seemed obvious to me at the time that it was going to be difficult to …
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