Category: General
Gadget show
Just returning from the Gadget show in Birmingham. My kids and I are avid watchers of the show and we tried to go last year. but tickets sold out faster than a quantum computer.
This year we booked the tickets minutes after they were on sale so I carted the whole family up the M40 to Birmingham. I’ve loved gadgets from a very young age and I am still a sucker for something new. I’ve also applied gadgets to my …
Good luck today
If you are running the London marathon today then, I’m jealous! But I’d like to wish you the best of luck and hope you have a really good run. When I last ran it in 1996 the weather was warm like today and it was tough going, so take it easy.
If I can stay injury free for a few years I may try once more, but I’m getting old and decrepit; so it gets less likely each year. Nothings …
March
Mainly thanks to Cheltenham March went OK. It was a surprise to post my best ever March as, outside of Cheltenham, some of the racing was just shocking. Field sizes have been very small and some of the racing just wildly uncompetitive. You wonder why some of these races are going ahead?
I was ‘luck positive’ in March which helped. Last year in April I had several massive doses of luck so I have virtually no chance of repeating that …
Waves
For some time I’ve noticed curious elements within betting markets. I love analysing and studying what happens in the market, and it’s all to find out that critical question, why?
Getting a deeper understanding is useful because it allows you to build a firm framework around your decisions. I’ve often seen people stumble on something that works and then come up with things to justify that. Eventually they will fail a little while later and slip out of existence, why? …
Should I green up?
People often ask me if it is worth greening, or redding, up; hedging your profit so you win what ever the result. In a word yes, but a longer description follows.
First off the market is very efficient, so in essence you could argue that it makes no difference. If you hedge you need to place another lay order. The hedge value is calculated by laying off the profit at the current lay price, thereby dividing your profit by the …
The secret to good decisions
Was tipped off by somebody the other day about this key bit of scientific advice. So next time you make a bad decision you now know what to do!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/
Safety in numbers…
An overlooked strategy on betting exchanges is spreading your risk across a number of selections and / or markets. A lot of people think this involves more risk but I’d actually argue it involves less.
By doing more you increase your chance of a return and minimise the pain of a loss. This is strategy that can be applied in a number of ways but can most commonly be applied across, say, a number of football matches before the start. …
February
Last month was pretty quiet. When we are in depths of winter I often take some time off and prepare for the busy summer season and so it was last month.
Summer is so important in sports markets that time off during this busy period is tricky, in the winter much less so. It is important to have a break, so winter is when I tend to do that. That said, a good friend of mine is getting married in …
Lift off!
After many years of trying I finally managed to see the space shuttle lift off last week. The scheduled launch of the shuttle last week coincided with a quiet time in the sports calendar and half term in the UK, so it was too good an opportunity to miss. The kids headed off to the theme parks, while Dad headed off to the coast in the hope of finally catching a shuttle launch. After a hold around T-5 the launch …
Accidents and evolution (Part three)
Never one for rhetoric; I presented a similar case, to those I have described in the prior posts, at a talk I did last year. Using a similar model we followed how that can evolve from a base set of criteria and environments to something more complex. The following two snap shots are from a control where we work at random and an evolved model a few generations on.
I reckon I could replicate the performance of the two at …
Accidents and evolution (Part two)
So how did my view on evolution, natural selection and Darwin translate into market strategy?
There are many ways to apply it, but first you need to start. Your first strategy is to have no strategy, just poke around at random. This gives you a control sample to work with, a base metric from which you can build your activity. You should regularly revisit your control to ensure the base you are working from is still the same as when …
Accidents and evolution (Part one)
Some time ago, when I was young, I was accosted by somebody on the streets of Guildford. He was trying to challenge my view of the world and get me to sign up to their cult or something. He followed me down the street and asked me if I really believed the world, everything we see, was created by accident. Without hesitation I replied, YES!
When I was young I had asked myself the same question. So I went to …
Ladbrokes results
There is a summary here: –
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12490900
Or the full detail here: –
https://www.ladbrokesplc.com/media-centre/press-releases/releases-2011/2011-02-17.aspx
A mixed bag of results, but pretty good given the underlying weakness in core markets. Labrokes is still 3-4 times the size of Betfair depending on how you measure it.
Twitter feed
In case you were not aware we do have a twitter feed. You can view it at: –
We have played around with it on and off for some time, just putting in thoughts and notes as they occur. You can see the current tweets there at the moment which will have been useful for you. If there is enough interest we will continue doing so.
Press the flesh
A half day for me today on the trading front as I went to Earls Court to ‘press the flesh’ at a gaming and betting exhibition. I’ll often go to these events as, while they are mainly trade, there are a lot people that I know there. It’s also interesting to see what’s out there and to catch up with a few people.
One surprise was to see several “Soccer Mystic / Tennis trader” type products there from software vendors …
2010
Already near the end of January and I realise I haven’t talked about what happened last year.
2010 was very satisfactory and I evolved further during the year. Each year that passes I learn more and more how the markets work and why they are priced the way they are. I think this is the thing that I enjoy most, the discovery. Whatever I am doing, I will often have a pen and paper handy in case some amazing thought …
Bookmakers still alive and well
William Hill came out with a year end statement today and the headline results were pretty good. Net revenue is expected to come in up 7% on the year delivering EBITDA of around £275m up from £258m in the prior year. Online revenue has grown 24% with sportsbook turnover up 57%.
One other note from the statement was that 47% of scheduled UK racing meetings were cancelled in December.
Full results will be out in late February. It seems traditional …
Normal service resumed..
It’s been a good few days on the horses. Excellent when compared to the period we have just had to endure. It’s so much better having something to get stuck into each day rather than the intermittent and erratic markets we recently had. Plenty of markets can give you a bit more confidence and allow you to average out any mistakes you make on the day. Lack of them only exacerbates the pressure to perform and that can be counter …
Sack race
A rather predictable scenario if you ask me. At least three managers in the firing line and you could add Holliuer to the mix as well, despite getting the ‘backing’ of his board. If we do get a flurry of sackings it could provide a useful mid-season trading opportunity. I’m keeping my eyes open.
December
It is quite easy to guess how December went.
With all the weather disruption only a minor miracle could get me near last years December. That didn’t happen and it felt like December could be a write off at one point. But a few decent days near the end of the month salvaged something out of the month but it was still over 50% down on the prior year. Last year did go exceptionally well though, so that decline masks …
Happy New Year
Just a short note to wish you a happy new year. I hope 2011 brings you all the things you hope for!
At last…
Yesterday saw the first decent sporting action since 1492 or something. Anyhow, it’s seems an age since we had a day where there was lots going on.
I tucked into the racing and footy yesterday and had a good day and I am hoping for a repeat today. Fog seems to be the main problem now, not snow and ice. Let’s hope things keep moving along so we can at least have a decent end to the year. Good luck …
Merry Christmas and all that!
Just a sort note to wish you a Merry Christmas / happy holidays and all that stuff. 2010 has been a good year and we are looking forward to more of the same next year. With the weather not exactly perfect, I’m off to spend an extended break with the family. I hope you enjoy the festive period.
SPOTY
Or Sports Personality Of The Year in its long form.
Let me declare my interest. I would love Tony McCoy to win this award. Not only is it fully deserved, but it would also give a boost to racing. Let me temper that with the fact that the short priced favourite just never seems to win this award any more. Also, in the general public, there is little recognition of who Tony McCoy is.
Before I got into horse racing …
Online betting tax imposed
Stark headline for a lot in this sector, but in the latest austerity budget in Ireland there were proposals to level out the playing field by introducing a new tax on phone and Internet gambling. As always, details are a bit sketchy at the moment but shops have been taxed for sometime but other channels not, so this is addressing that discrepancy.
Quite how it will work and be enforced is difficult to see at the moment, but it will …
Snovember
That was an interesting month.
The end of the month was a complete damp squib, which was a shame, but the start was well above expectations. The result was that I managed another month up on the prior year and in fact I somehow managed to beat June, which is a bit weird. I was active on 871 races during the month, so it was still quite a busy month. Biggest individual race topped £1.1k and my worst loss was …
Dinner
I met up with somebody last night at Gatwick airport. We talked for hours about many things related to the markets and in particular how to model behaviour and probabilites. In a world dominated by ‘experts’ it was a real pleasure to speak to somebody who actually was one! I sense the feeling was mutual.
Anyhow, when it came to paying the restaurant bill we both offered to pay and, as you would expect, we then could have dutched the …
There was a little girl
You may have heard this poem before: –
There was a little girl,
Who had a little curl,
Right in the middle of her forehead.
When she was good,
She was very good indeed,
But when she was bad she was horrid.
The market can feel like that at times and it can be the very thing that throws you off balance. But you have to believe that just as the market can be horrid she can be very good …
Cock ups, blunders & mishaps
You are either perfect or a liar and nobody is perfect.
Coming to terms with errors is the key to success in anything. If you stop or get put off by losses, errors or mishaps, you will never see the upside. Upside is always there, but a lot of people never ‘see’ it. Couple losses, cock ups, blunders & mishaps with a bit of psychology and it prevents you from getting to the good bits. It took some time, but …
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